If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?
Yes 59%
No 41%
This is a potentially quite dangerous result, because it could lead people down a very deep rabbit hole. Believe in Scotland are arguing that it means promising a republic would instantly add five percentage points to Yes support, but it really, really doesn't mean that. Quick fixes of that sort generally aren't available, but if anything this particular suggestion of a quick fix would be highly likely to backfire and reduce Yes support.
So why has the poll produced such a misleading result? It's well known that hypothetical questions, asking "if condition A applied, how would you vote in response to question B?" do not produce reliable numbers. For example, in the run-up to the EU referendum, any number of polls purported to show that a Leave vote would result in big majority support for independence, but that didn't materialise when the event actually arose.
The reason is probably that respondents tend to focus on "condition A" much more than they do on the main meat of "question B". If you oppose Brexit, or if you hate the monarchy, your natural reaction will be to demonstrate how strongly you feel about the subject, ie. "yeah, I'd do anything to stop Brexit, even vote for independence!", but when the question actually comes up in the real world, you focus on how you feel about independence itself, and Brexit or the monarchy fades into the background. It may still affect your thinking but not to anything like the same degree.
The reason why tying a Yes vote to a republic would be unhelpful is that everyone knows that the UK will retain the monarchy. So republicans have nowhere else to go - even if the pro-independence campaign is explicitly monarchist, there's no reason why republicans wouldn't vote Yes, because it would leave them no worse off. By contrast, monarchist voters will always have an alternative if you push them too far - if the Yes campaign is overtly republican, that might just tip the balance and lead monarchists to vote No.
That said, the replacement of the former Queen with the less popular Charles may mean it's now safer for any future Yes campaign to adopt a position of neutrality on the monarchy, and say that the people will decide the issue later in a separate referendum. That may well be the most sensible course, and I suspect that's what would happen.
If there is any significance to the Believe in Scotland poll, it may be that it implies that the 54% Yes vote in the Sunday Times poll was not a fluke, because it's hard to see how you'd get to 59% support on the hypothetical question unless baseline Yes support was also very high.
* * *
Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland. It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support. If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
I'm sure James's analysis is correct...shame though.
ReplyDeleteAlba by brath!
Alba gu brath. One dram too many..
DeleteYou have just described an example of what Rev Stu calls the buckaroo principle. (WoS 10/06/2018).
ReplyDeleteYou two agree on so much.
If you expect me to search for a six-year-old Wings post featuring the word "buckaroo", you can think again.
DeleteBuckaroo - It's basically just keep it nice and simple - Independence and just independence.
DeleteIt says you should not promote independence if you want independence but only if independence comes with qualifications e.g. independence but only if it comes with a king or independence but only if it comes with EU membership or in Campbells current focus independence but only if comes with no transpeople.
Or in SNP troll minds independence but only if it is delivered and controlled by the SNP when the SNP wants to get round to it.
A question James - With the most recent Scottish poll on the Royals (Savanta earlier this year, I believe) showing less than 50% across all age groups under 50, don't you believe that asking opinions on an Indy Scottish Republic is perfectly legit?
ReplyDeleteWill certainly be interesting to see if any other polls are now done in the same vein, perhaps also allied to EU Membership?
"less than 50% support......."
Delete"don't you believe that asking opinions on an Indy Scottish Republic is perfectly legit?"
DeleteWhy wouldn't I believe that? A more useful question would be: "If Scotland becomes independent, do you think it should retain the monarchy or introduce an elected Head of State?"
Fair enough, but I think more polls along the lines of the one in question will probably now be forthcoming and might well be useful for the Yes Movement in general.
DeleteNo, I totally disagree with that.
DeleteWe shall agree to differ, then.
DeleteI agree with DF.
DeleteI agree with JK.
DeleteI agree with SC.
DeleteI agree with PN.
DeleteI agree with RJQ.
DeleteSeasonal greetings to you all.
DeleteApologies for the typo. Fixed now.
DeleteDon't sweat it, Zulfs, so easily done.
DeleteMessage to the anon troll mafia character does that count as a
Delete" head shot" to David Fraser by James Kelly as well. On reflection don't bother answering - idiot.
If you want to maximise the yes vote you do NOT put up signs at the entrance to the yes tent saying " DO NOT ENTER IF ............."
DeleteYou can fill in the blank with all sort of stuff if you want to reduce the yes vote. SNP is miles away from the simple position of no signs outside the tent. They don't even want yes voters who won't vote SNP.
I truly fear you will never experience the art of gracious living. For some, such as my humble self, it is innate. Others, possibly your fine self, need to learn and imitate. Yet I fear the learning and imitation may be beyond your, doubtlessly numerous, skills.
DeleteIFS at 1.04. Very self reflective of you to sign off on your post. I see a very raw nerve was struck by my post. James and David agreed to disagree on their differing opinions. You lied and were called out.
DeleteAnybody who seriously believes support for independence is at 54%, far less 59%, lives in cloud cookoo land.
ReplyDeleteSo why do scientifically conducted opinion polls keep showing that, KC?
DeleteThey don’t keep showing that James. You’re going by a couple of Norstat polls. The majority of polls before that put No ahead.
DeleteLet’s see what the next Survation and YouGov polls say. Should they put Yes ahead then I’d concede you have grounds for a little optimism. I don’t think that’s very likely though, but we shall see.
Let's be honest, KC, if the next twenty polls in a row show an enormous Yes majority, you'll still be wittering on about "Statista averages".
Delete😂🤣😆, etc, etc, etc.
The union was a perfect thought from the mind of God himself. And because the British Empire created western civilisation, the UK is respected throughout the world for its fairness, justice and the rule of law. Scots, being allowed a faux second rate Anglo-ness, should be grateful to be rescued from the defects of the Scotch character, including tribalism, strong drink, crazed religion and sentimentality. No amount of hydrocarbons can compensate for the elevation the backward celtic nations have prospered from.
ReplyDelete- and once Farage gets rid of all the pakis, coons, wogs, and assorted mystery meat, the glory days will return. That was a mistake, all that. Should have taken the Hess peace deal, IMO, and avoided the rise of our ghastly cousins, the yanks, boorish, vulgar, hillbillies.
Imagine, a flaxen haired anglo on a white horse, revolver in hand, while a fierce, kilted Highlander, stabs the hottentots in the face.
Glory days.
We need more polls like this. I hope BiS commissions more on Scottish republicanism, refusal to take oaths and seats in the commons, radical land reform, etc. If only to put pressure on the reluctant SNP leadership. Stir it all up. Get people's blood on the boil. We need just as much heart as head on independence.
ReplyDeleteThe last thing we need is more obsessiveness about the frigging oath of allegiance. Nobody gives a monkey's about that in the real world.
DeleteBlood on the boil
DeleteIt's money, the economy, incomes, household costs that is what any independence campaign should be focussing on. It's that simple. Independence will make you a lot better off. So why do the SNP not do it. Salmond even didn't do it enough.
DeleteSturgeon focussed on social engineering.
Yousaf focused on hate speech and people being white and black and religion.
Swinney - too early to say but probably he will focus on being deadly boring and that will make the SNP trolls happy. The ship is being steadied while it is blockaded in a Britnat harbour. Great stuff the SNP trolls will cheer. Long live John the Redactor.
Well all of this cheer and hilarity and good YES polls has inspired me to get back to my long neglected Wordpress. Needs a lot of reformatting and we're not even in the EU any more, but in the meantime:
ReplyDeletehttps://yesindyref2.wordpress.com/the-rough-wooing-for-independence/
E&OE
But the leadership of ALBA is pro-royalty. Will attract Reform?
ReplyDeleteThere is now very little difference between ALBA and Farage.
DeleteMaybe they could merge and Alba could become Reform's branch office?
DeleteWould we notice much difference?
DeleteProbably not.
Delete