The joke was that Rosie had offended almost everyone - he had offended unionists by suggesting independence would happen and would be a cause for celebration, and he had offended the SNP by suggesting they couldn't win elections and that independence would happen in spite of them.
In retrospect it all looks a bit silly. Rosie seems to have been wrong on every count - the Tories embraced devolution, however reluctantly, Portillo made an unexpected journey towards the political centre and never became leader anyway, and the SNP proved perfectly electable within less than a decade of devolution commencing. And yet something that happened yesterday made me wonder if the Rosie scenario might suddenly be rearing its head again, albeit in modified form.
The Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe called devolution a "scam" and said it needed to be reversed. And judging from recent opinion polls, we could be just four years from a Reform government that would have the opportunity to abolish the Scottish Parliament if it so wished. But would it? It's a remarkably difficult question to answer. Apparently Lowe made similar remarks in September and the party issued some sort of retraction afterwards, but I can't find a text of the retraction. The Reform manifesto for July's general election didn't mention devolution and barely even mentioned Scotland. Entering search terms like "Farage devolution" turns up very little. When Murdo Fraser ran for the Scottish Tory leadership, he penned an article stressing that the Tories would have to remain pro-devolution if Reform ran against them on an "abolish Holyrood" platform, but that seemed to be purely speculative.
One thing is for sure - if Farage became PM and reversed devolution, it would turbo-charge support for independence more than anything else ever has or than anything else ever could. It would have a far greater impact than Brexit. Labour would presumably try to hold the line by arguing that the Reform government is just a blip and that devolution would soon be restored, but would anyone be buying it by that point?
* * *
On a semi-related point, having now read the Reform manifesto I realise they have two flagship policies I genuinely agree with - not only do they want proportional representation but they also want to abolish the House of Lords. Interestingly, of the two policies, Lords abolition is the one they seem to be most committed to - it's listed as a priority for the first 100 days of a Reform government, whereas PR is not.
There's also a third policy which I don't necessarily agree with but which certainly falls within the category of "satisfyingly ironic". That's abolition of the BBC licence fee. The BBC created the Farage monster almost from scratch, so if they end up being destroyed by that monster, it'll be rather fitting.
* * *
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Reform UK has been turbocharged by YouTube in my view. Particularly certain accounts and TalkTv.
ReplyDeleteTheir viewerships are in the hundreds of thousands.
I don't think the BBC has much control of it now.
I also think, like independence for Scotland, the media can give it limelight or shun, but the underlying support for less mainstream views has always existed and parties there for it.
"Reform UK has been turbocharged by YouTube in my view."
DeleteBut there would never have been an opportunity for that to happen if the BBC hadn't built Farage's profile. This goes back to before YouTube even existed. UKIP first won MEPs in 1999.
Farage has been on Question Time on over 50 occasions.
DeleteMaybe so but since 2016 which is nearly 10 years ago it's been YT.
DeleteAlso, it's a real support..not manufactured any more than Lab or Tory support by the BBC.
I won't be touching them with a bargepole by the way. A nonsense
I think you're right. It would be interesting to know where in the UK they are going to be directing all the money Musk is banking them with, or I suppose it's a good way of just getting money into the UK for just about anything.
ReplyDeleteOn the independence for Scotland and media - it looks as if Neale Hanvey and Joanna Cherry et al are building yet more cases against Nicola Sturgeon so it's clear the 'give the SNP a good kicking' via more revenge on Nicola Sturgeon is going to be endless. I was surprised to read Neale Hanvey's account of the alleged distress he says was deliberately put upon him by the SNP and have to say I haven't wanted to delve into the details they are flooding social media with. I only mention it because I suspect the media will be all over this like a rash and distraction from essentially independence related material.
I would hope that the desire to avenge the wrongs inflicted on Salmond will fizzle out in the next year or so as it won't achieve anything positive for Yes. For that to happen of course Sturgeon will need to retreat into the background, probably leaving politics and public life altogether.
DeleteI have my doubts that'll happen. It might well get pretty grim for a while yet.
I have a idea for where money can be directed.
DeleteLooking for a unique and special gift? There's still time to book last minute Christmas Commissions I will record a video of me singing and accompanying myself on piano, a song of your choice an introduction to dedicate the song to your loved one.
Fantasy island material here. You must stop talking to Cherry and Hanvey
ReplyDelete“ Alleged”is a key word but I will spread the gossip anyway. Dishonourable intentions methinks.
ReplyDeleteIt was incredibly mild that winter.
DeleteThere was a poll in the last couple of months that gave folk the option of abolishing Holyrood. I remember being shocked that the figure was just under 20%. If it is as high as that then it seems possible that Reform would run under a well-funded banner of "reforming" Holyrood (& the Senedd) in 2026. If they did well enough (say more than 20MSP) then this gives them confidence to go for outright abolition in Westminster 2029. Both of these strategies would put Labour and the Tories on the back foot.
ReplyDeleteRemember that there are people out there who take up short positions and then stoke political chaos to benefit from it.
I think many English voters in Cymru and in Scotland believe still in the 1 Parliament based in England. Isn’t that enough ? King first, country- England second and whoever else -we don’t give a toss as we are ex pats.
ReplyDeleteThere was some talk (Rees-Mogg?) post 2014 of making indy refs illegal by making the UK territory inviolable and "secession" forbidden. It was talked about post brexit, because the fear was this was "a material change" which could trigger indyref#2.
ReplyDeleteIt fell away though, either because they realised the "nationalist" SNP was "nae danger", but also, it would open a real can of worms as there would need to be a new, written, constitution, but before this was created there would have to be an examination of the old one, and who knows what we would find? e.g. numerous breaches of the union treaty by england, or the notion Scotland could simply tear it up. NB having an "unwritten constitution" allows those with power to do what they like, make it up as they go along.
The question of Scotland's status - "equal partner in a union" - "colony" - "stateless nation" - "north britain" - "a region" - gets played as to taste; in practice, Scotland gets talked up to the outside world, then put in its place in private. If reform got rid of holyrood then the question is settled - you are a colony. And that could lead to action, for the tools of "decolonisation" already exist at the UN; NB in any UN sponsored independence referendum, the english settlers would not be allowed a vote and we would romp it.
It would be dumb and dangerous (for England) for reform to do such a thing. But they just might try it, being little englanders who believe their own bullshit.
We see this a lot from the english - most are pretty dumb and believe their own propaganda, then wiser minds "have a word" and they shut up about it. For example - "Scotland is subsidised by England" - every southerner and mail reader has this etched into its DNA. Therefore, by simple logic, England "cutting loose the deadwood/ingrate" Scotland would MAKE ENGLAND RICHER.
Delete- so why not do that? Why not call for the ENGLISH to unilaterally tear up the treaty, to go for "english independence"?? It is obvious.
I am sure if the mail/telegraph spewed this propaganda constantly it would happen, just like brexit. Brexit -> ENGEXIT. England is free!
er ... just hold on now ...
But the people who know how things work and actually run the UK know that "losing Scotland" would fuck up England in terrible ways (crash the pound, loss of seat on the security council, loss of hard petro revenues, loss of space). So, the blimps are told to calm down, and the official line is England does subsidise Scotland a little bit, but its just because we love them (disrespect them, treat them like shit) so much that we "stuff their mouths with gold" via the Barnett formula. Except, the english are nation of narcissists and only care about themselves.
1:46 is right, KC. Our oil and gas and renewable resources pay for London, ya diddy. Or does Scottish Gas pay you for your heating now?
DeleteThe disgrace to Scotland is cringing colonials like you.
Anons@1:46 &2:55,
DeleteWhat a pair of clowns 🤡
Embarrassing stuff!
I suppose it would depend on just how stupidly incompetent they were as a government.
ReplyDeleteDevolution in it's strangulated and unambitious form serves the British state very well but requires a bit of political sense to see that it actually is an effective way of confusing and blunting aspirations for self determination.
Farage never looks to me to have the patience or concentration span for long haul strategies.
Driven by the Daily Heil, and it's brown shirts in broken English towns, a 'firm' centralisation of glorious Britannia might seem easier - especially if the commons had been filled with loudmouthed boneheads like Anderson.
Would that build our movement or break it ?
There's no predicting that one. We need to agitate and build fast now - make the decision our not theirs !
Abolishing Holyrood would be their legal right, as all it would take is to repeal the Scotland Act.
DeleteBut abolishing the Lords? Where would they even start? The unwritten constitution is a hell of a lot murkier to unwind than a single piece of Blairite legislation.
I can't see why abolishing the Lords is inherently impossible. For starters if it's in the Reform manifesto it would be covered by the Salisbury Convention - ie. the Lords would be expected to vote for their own abolition. And if all else failed it could presumably be pushed through using the Parliament Act.
DeleteI've changed my mind on the Lords.
DeleteIt's a recommendation chamber. It can't force anything and I like that it's not in theory in throe to democracy turns every 5 years.
Yes, it's only right that Ian Botham should get to make laws for us without being elected. After all, he can bat AND bowl.
DeleteOt. I see the so called Scottish Television is advertising what is on their tv channel on New Year’s Eve!!! They are just a bigger disgrace than the BBC. Remember Grampian, Border etc.
ReplyDeleteIn other news:
ReplyDelete"Navantia UK has announced it is in discussions to acquire Harland & Wolff, the British shipbuilding company, in a deal that could safeguard over 1,000 jobs and integrate four sites into Navantia’s operations.
The proposed acquisition includes Harland & Wolff’s sites in Belfast, Northern Ireland; Appledore, England; and Methil and Arnish, Scotland."
Navantia is owned by the Spanish state. However, it seems:
"Navantia UK framed the acquisition as a step towards reinforcing UK capabilities."
I think they meant "step towards buying the UK" which is for sale to the lowest bidder with snappy suits. H&W make support ships for the RN. Technically not "warships" ...
Meanwhile (also from ukdj):
Delete"... the ongoing recruitment crisis and the performance of contractor Capita.
The discussion, chaired by Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi MP, highlighted the Army’s inability to meet recruitment targets, with just 63% achieved this year—the worst performance in five years.
...focus on making conditional offers earlier and reducing unnecessary delays."
What a [redacted] shambles. Well, according to the Indy Ref defence plan in Scotland's Future, our armed forces would be paid better and looked after better after being demobbed, and I think this is probably true. Britain treats its "squaddies" etc. like shite (whatever the nationality by the way).
Yet another reason for Independence - defence of the Scottish Realm. That's Realm as in Sovereign State.
MOD announce that only one fifth of the British military could be depended upon to fight
DeleteCould it be because maybe only one fifth of the military actually might consider themselves British and the rest just in it for a career, or the only job they could get?
I'm just glad that the SNP will be meeting its recruitment targets in 2025.
And another while I'm at it:
Delete"Over 1,600 sailors, Royal Marines ‘stand ready’ on Christmas
December 23, 2024
First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Ben Key expressed his gratitude for the work of the Royal Navy personnel, noting, "Your resilience and professionalism have allowed us to deliver on another demanding year".
While the UK Gov decided to retire the Albion class amphibious assault ships - which the RM (the clue is in "M for Marine"), use. Or used to. RMs are of course of particular interest to Scotland (to cut a long story short), and will be after Independence as we have 60% of the current UK mainland coastline.
It was actually that posting about "one fifth of the British military" that triggered me to check out UKDJ and see what's been happening in the UK defence world. It's an interesting claim, no idea how much truth there is in it.
Delete"UK mainland coastline"
DeleteSorry, for accuracy that should just be "UK coastline" as it includes islands of which we have quite a lot and very beautiful they are too.
What's Scotland got? It's got the lot! Except Independence.
When it comes to coastline I'm looking in my rear view mirror.
DeleteAnd last, honest guv:
Deletehttps://marine.gov.scot/data/facts-and-figures-about-scotlands-sea-area-coastline-length-sea-area-sq-kms
"We estimate the area of Scotland’s seas to be 462,315 km2 using the definition of the “Scottish zone” in the Scotland Act 1998 (see table below for other definitions). Scotland’s seas are nearly six times larger than the land area of Scotland.
The figure above reflects the UK Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) adjacent to Scotland, which accounts for 63% of the UK EEZ."
Welcome to YES!
Will you convinced me. Not. What a saddo you are
ReplyDeleteOK Komrad Rachel.
Delete@5:33,
DeleteWho is this “saddo” you’re referring to?
I see bbc scotchland reporter- daughter in law of an Ayrshire Labourite and ex cooncillor is doing her bit quoting so called deaths using figures supplied by the tories and backed up by labour Jackie Baillie. According to some journal 1 in 72 people waiting more than 8 hrs will die.Yet the stars don’t show this.Someone better than me needs to have a look
ReplyDeleteStats.
ReplyDeleteThey reinvented numbers invented by some medical union to come up with completely invented everything
ReplyDeleteThey have to find ways of reporting Scotland is shite on a daily basis
just like they invented the Scottish Labour party, of which there is no such entity registered anywhere in any of the four countries of the British isles
There is only the British Labour party which in Scotland is the branch office known as an accounting unit, which again is pretty funny seeing as how all the numbers they dream up are invented and they don't do any accounts
Scottish Labour is an accounting unit, but they actually do do their own accounts:
Deletehttps://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/Api/Accounts/Documents/26176
The SNP has consistently benefited from the widespread distaste felt for its opponents here in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteEither / both; too right wing for Scotland (but more in tune with England); and branch office dynamics leading to the opposite of fleetness of foot.
Reform UK are an archetype of both of the above.
If this is to translate into Indy then one of the things that he to happen is a realistic and compelling economic argument for Independence. Unless YES wants to write of the northeast, the promise need to include more oil and gas extraction, not just green energy everywhere on an “all of the above” basis.
Wishful thinking won’t cut it.
North east trusts the Brit energy company?
Delete“ Unless YES wants to write of the northeast, the promise needs to include more oil and gas extraction, not just green energy, everywhere on an “all of the above” basis.”
ReplyDelete"the promise needs to"
ReplyDelete"the"
ReplyDeleteIt's a good word, don't wear it out.
DeleteGas/ oil extraction + carbon capture? Also is it no aboot time we talked about the environmental cost of renewables-?
ReplyDeleteEspecially when we are siting wind farms on PEAT .
Also , consider what we could have done / could do with the uplands in respect to rewilding and enhancing natural carbon sequestration .
Wise up my friends.
Alba gu brath!
As Donny says "Burn , baby, burn".
Delete