80% of the time I disagree with Andy Maciver's centrist, affluent take on Scottish politics, but his verdict on the Daily Record story suggesting the SNP will reverse London Labour's cut in winter fuel allowance chimes with the way I've been thinking recently -
"Labour will learn the hard way that Westminster governments don’t get the electoral credit for Barnett consequentials…"
I cannot understand what Sarwar's thinking was in announcing that a Scottish Labour government would reverse its own party's cuts, because once people stopped laughing at the preposterous "vote Labour to stop Labour" messaging, there was only ever going to be one reliable effect. The SNP couldn't allow themselves to be outflanked, so if they hadn't already been planning to reverse the cut themselves, Sarwar's stunt guaranteed that they would do so, and we knew that it was probably affordable due to the Barnett consequentials generated by the Budget's spending increases in England.
And now the SNP will get the sole credit. In the real world, people don't say "oh, this is thanks to #PressureFromScottishLabour", and nor do they give credit to London Labour for incidentally providing the funds necessary to reverse a cruel cut that London Labour made in the first place and needn't have done.
* * *
Over the last few weeks, I have been causing fury in certain quarters by pointing out that Labour's string of local by-election wins in Scotland is not what it superficially seems, because they have taken place mostly in wards that are unusually favourable for Labour - a lot of them have been wards where Labour won the popular vote in 2022, at a time when the SNP were well ahead nationally. The swing to Labour has generally been small enough to suggest an ongoing SNP national lead, perhaps even quite a substantial one.
In a state of exasperation, someone said to me the other day: "OK, if that's the case, where are all the wards that the SNP would be expected to win?" Well, there are two more by-elections taking place today, and I've checked the wards in question and it's a continuation of the same story: the popular vote in both wards was won by Labour in 2022 in spite of the fact that Labour were well behind the SNP nationally. So doubtless Labour will easily win both by-elections, and certain people will once again refuse to accept that such results can be anything other than stonkingly wonderful for Labour, but that's the reality. The numbers don't lie. Sometimes weird patterns do just occur randomly and lots of Labour-friendly wards come up for election all at once.
The Labour wards pattern isn’t even a coincidence. The reason for all these by-elections is that these Labour councillors have gone on to win election as labour MPs. It’s anything but a random sample.
ReplyDeleteBut anything it takes to make British nationalists feel comfortably complacent!
The SNP might get the credit for reversing the WFP, but it’s going to take an awful lot more than that to make people forget 17 years of gross incompetence in government.
ReplyDeleteYou should be a dancer on a cruise liner. You could get that job.
DeleteAs distinct from Westminster ripping Scotland off for more than 300 years. Westminster keeping between 70 to 80% of Scotland's taxes for themselves.
DeleteIFS,
DeleteNationalist propaganda BS.
KC at 9.46am. The historic document is held in the National Library of Scotland, Edinburgh. The document shows the record that the British Empire kept of taxes raised in Scotland and taxes spent in Scotland. That was in the period when the Empire was more sure of itself and arrogant enough to actually record in official documents how much they rip off Scotland. They stopped recording it in the 1920s when some wiser Britnat probably thought that perhaps it's not a good idea to record this info. Particularly as Ireland was getting its freedom at the same time.
DeleteKC being a House Jock disnae want to educate himself on such matters. He prefers to be ignorant and kid himself on as to his true status in the UK - a subservient House Jock.
It's minus 6 degrees this morning the SNP should have been on the front foot and promised to pay the UWFP right away when Labour made that initial decision to can the UWFP.
ReplyDeleteIfS at 9.34 am -- If the SNP discovered a cure for cancer you'd be soiling yourself to get in there first with your negativity.
DeleteAbsolutely IfS. I've been saying for weeks that the first sign of proper cold weather should've been the time to act. Good news story for SNP etc. They've already missed that boat, I fear.
DeleteYou just know that sooner or later there'll be a Daily Record headline about a poor old soul who's been found dead in their own flat wrapped in blankets with the central heating turned off.
Anon twit at 9.53am - who in the SNP is going to come up with a cure for cancer - surely not Shirley 😂😂- a real wonder of science 🤣- there is no way Shirley- Anne Somerville is related to Scotland's Queen of Science Mary Somerville. I m pretty sure Mary Somerville would know the difference between a man and a woman. If Shirley was a doctor she would be treating women for prostrate cancer.
DeleteAnon your comment is just full of personal abuse but I note you do not dispute the point I made and that makes you a troll as well as an idiot.
Exactly Douglas. You would think the SNP don't want to win Holyrood 2016. It was an open goal served up by Labour.
DeleteWhat is an obvious truth AND an important one is that Scotland's trendy left should've been putting pressure on the ScotGov to make this decision last week rather than beating themselves off about Netenyahu's arrest warrant.
DeleteAnon troll at 9.53am - as soon as Reeves delivered her budget and it was clear that the Scotgov would get a lot more money I was first to post on SGP that the SNP should state that they will pay the UWFP as it will give them a big political win. What did they do - hummed and hawed and let Sarwar muddy the water. It's valid criticism. It's just that SNP trolls like you are party drones who have no mind of their own.
DeleteAnon 10.24 is that you Kevin McKenna ?
DeleteThe S G didn’t get more money. It’s our money, which we are forced to send down and then wait to get back. And we get back less than we send down. Why are you supporting a unionist narrative?
DeleteThe SNP would have gotten more credit if they had acted more quickly imo.
ReplyDeleteUntil now we've had excuses that it can only be reversed at Westminster or "what do you want the Scottish Government to cut to pay for it?" messaging from SNP supporters. It kind of feels like they've been forced into doing it rather than doing it from the off because it's the right thing to do.
You need to tell what is to be cut instead?
DeleteThey're planning to reverse it so what is being cut in that case?
Delete"You need to tell what is to be cut instead?"
DeleteYour stupidity?
Anon at 11.19. Cut the tie with England.
DeleteAnon at 11.19am - first of all they don't need to cut anything. It's additional money.
DeleteSecondly, if you want the SNP to cut something they could stop giving money to organisations that are not fit for purpose. Stop wasting money on projects that are a disaster. Stop spending public funds on legal fees to cover up wrongdoing. .
Anon at 11.28am has summed you up very well.
It’s our money, not additional money, and still less than we send down each year and have to wait to get back.
DeleteAnon at 11.23. Are you Kezia?
DeleteSwinney was Finance Secretary under Salmond in the minority government days - which needed give and take to get budgets through. People associate him with Sturgeon. Maybe - but I think he's his own man. From the National: https://archive.is/Bv5HL
ReplyDelete"John Swinney says Anas Sarwar U-turn on winter fuel is 'step forward'"
I think it's a major issue, and what Swinney could do is say to Sarwar: "We'll reverse the WFP cut but you'll need to support our budget, or at least, not vote against it. We'll acknowledge your support.". Job done.
If the SNP don't do that, then in the words of that Mission Impossible film they're: "Toast Toast Toast" for 2026.
What SNP should’ve been saying is. We’re doing this. Support us. Instead they allow Labour to take the lead. Incompetent morons.
DeleteMeanwhile the SNP need to totally ignore the Greens and their "Scrap roads and go by push bike", such as not dual the A96 - a road I've driven on and one which is deadly - deaths all the time and no wonder. And of course there's an economic case for it - it connects Inverness to Aberdeen.
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/JrWoq
What the Greens don't know about economics would be the whole syllabus for Economics 101.
Greens don’t want economic growth, they want managed decline.
DeleteFair enough if you’re comfortably off in a flat your parents bought for you in Kelvinside, but hideous to the whole rest of Scotland.
I get that there’s a hell of a lot more to the quality of people’s lives than sheer GDP growth rate, but this is Scotland and we need those roads, especially in winter when you’d kill yourself on a bike.
James says " Vote Labour to stop Labour " - a great line James. I may use that in correspondence with my Labour MP Blair McDougall. Or even a variation on the theme "Vote Labour to save us from Labour."
ReplyDeleteOnly Labour can save Scotland from this Labour government.
DeleteBut who saves Labour from itself?
Imagine if we were independent, and not getting the billions from Westminster through the Barnett Formula every year.
ReplyDeleteDosen’t bare thinking about. Just one of the many reasons that makes independence utter lunacy. Thank God only a minority somehow think this madness is a good idea!
KC - there is a saying 'God loves a trier ' and boy are you trying. According to KC the rest of the world are lunatics - all these independent countries turning up at the UN.
DeletePs it's bear not "bare" - ya numpty House Jock.
Slip ons?
DeleteIFS has no answer to the Barnett point, surprise surprise.
DeleteI note “House Jock” has replaced “Britnat” as his favourite saying these days too.
Why is England paying us, KC? Go on. You spell out your asinine logic for us.
DeleteCan anyone offer Inactive for Scotland a job? He has far too much time on his hands.
ReplyDeleteI don't think he does the brain transplant you clearly need.
DeleteIs “Dimwit Troll” one of Scotgov’s 42 recognised gender identities?
DeleteSurely the time has come for the minority of fools who somehow think independence is a good idea to give up on the nonsense and move on.
ReplyDeleteAfter all the school kid name calling in the end some pensioners and the SNP will gain from this and Labour will lose from it - good - as far as it goes.
ReplyDeleteN.B. Scotland's per capita GNP is higher than the UK average and Scotland's per capita average income is lower than the UK average. Figure it - the counter argument is unionist propaganda lies. Simples !