Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Today is a crossroads in history

Welcome to the 3rd of September 2019, which as it happens is the 80th anniversary of Britain and France declaring war on Nazi Germany, but also seems certain to be remembered in its own right as one of the most important days in modern British political history, perhaps on a par with 28th March 1979 (when the Callaghan government was toppled in a no confidence vote), or 22nd November 1990 (when Margaret Thatcher was forced to resign).  What isn't yet clear is exactly how today will be important, but then if we knew what was going to happen in advance, it wouldn't be such a historical crossroads. 

It's possible, but unlikely, that the government's threats and browbeating may pay off, and that the Tory rebellion will be minimised to such an extent that a No Deal Brexit becomes virtually inevitable by the end of the day.  There would still be the opportunity for Jeremy Corbyn to table a motion of no confidence later in the week, but there's no reason to think that would succeed where the legislative path failed.

On the other hand, if the rebels succeed today, a pre-Brexit general election on 14th October will be on the cards, although not before another putting to the test of Mike Smithson's theory that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes early elections practically impossible.  If he's proved wrong about that twice in the space of two years, I'll try very hard not to laugh. 

Given that we don't know who would win a snap election, it's very difficult to assess the significance of one being called.  I'm unconvinced by the polls showing a handsome Tory lead - 30% of the vote is not usually a winning position, and it's only enough for a lead at the moment because of the strange way in which the opposition vote is split.  The electorate is more volatile than ever, and there'll be plenty of time during the campaign for the Remain vote to coalesce in a much more effective way.  In normal circumstances tactical voting websites have only a minimal effect, but I suspect this time a large fraction of the population will have one question on their minds: how do I cast my vote in this constituency to prevent No Deal?  Everything will be up for grabs once minds start to focus.

Only one thing seems reasonably sure: this is the day the Tory/DUP majority in the Commons will finally be wiped out.  If the government are true to their word, a large number of Tory MPs will lose the whip today, irrespective of whether the rebellion is large enough to actually win the vote.  Boris Johnson's democratic authority for holding the office he does, even over the few weeks needed to hold a general election, will instantly go from being tenuous to non-existent.

22 comments:

  1. Is it just me or has the " Fixed Term" act resulted in less fixed elections and more " whenever the PM bloody wants one" elections.

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    1. LOL. How true. Since the Fixed Term act came into being, parlimentary sessions have become more volatile than ever. Wasn't it the LibDems that insisted on the fixed term act, durng the coalition years. Another great move by the LbDems, on par with the ASV debacle and student tuition fees.

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  2. Also : I predict the Tories will violate spending laws by millions of pounds by printing glossy fliers that cost too much and spending shady sourced national $ in local races, overwhelming the local people in numerous races. The media will conveniently miss this. After election the Tories will be severely punished with a slap on the wrist .

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    1. Reply to Bill: Your point about illegal campaign spending is really important. In addition to glossy flyers, there is also the question of illegal use of social media for political purposes. It is clear that the Electoral Commission is unable or unwilling to effectively address these violations. Does anyone know of anything we can do as citizens to prevent these things from happening? Or even to call them out as they happen, in a way that the police might be able to intervene?

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  3. Much has been made of tory rebels, but what about Labour?
    They're not exactly a model of unity.
    I expect at least abstentions if not full rebellion from some Labour MPs in any vote.

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  4. I don't think I've ever voted on a day other than Thursday before, 14th is a Monday. When was the last election not on a Thursday?

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  5. w/c 14th October is half term in many places in Scotland.
    Get your postal vote sorted if you are an snp/remainer voter who may be away!

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  6. Wait, so Labour have been calling for a general election since May first took office in 2017, and now, presented with exactly that opportunity, half of them don't want one?

    If they don't want one, it means they want the Tories in power.

    This is handing any election to the Tories on a plate.

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    1. So UK London based Tories really did instruct branch Labour in Scotland to work with the Tories during the indy ref and in 9 councils across Scotland as they do now. When I see people on twitter with JC4PM, it a worry because they are so deluded into believing Labour will save them from Tory destruction, it's quite scary the effective propaganda and brainwashing going on.

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  7. My dads birthday, he was 10 years old. He never forgot or recovered from it. He said that day was a nightmare, his school in NE Eng was taken over by the army, they burned books in the school yardto his horror, my dad had loved school. After that he had to sell newspapers, working at age 10!

    His father was taken prisoner of war almost at beginnning, 5 years in prison. Family thought he was dead, grandma had 3 kids no money and took up and married a new guy who my dad did not get on with. His real dad returned after the war, thinking his family would still be there, he was turned away at the door. My dad never got over that either. Who would? I used to think gran should have not taken up with a new husband but no doubt the poverty and loneliness was too much.

    That and other ( mostly rich peoples' wars) ruins lives, people were starving. Bad nutrition has a knock on effect down geneeration that comes after and poss after that.

    Btw UK was only nation to come out of WW2 in credit but Tories wasted it then had to join EU, or rather European economic union at first!

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    1. And that terrible story is the best reason for staying in the EU.

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    2. It is pretty common knowledge that British GDP was lagging till the common market.

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  8. May's robotic personality was a big turn off for the the electorate, but it meant that when she was getting a kicking in the commons she could carry on without showing a flinch of emotion save the odd flash of anger or dagger eyes stare.

    Boris is the opposite, as soon as the pressure starts mounting is very apparent that hes struggling. You could see that when Phillip Lee crossed the aisle. May would of just sat down waited for the Speaker to restore order and then carried on like nothing had happened. Boris tried to carry on speaking and then just muttered something about wishing his friend luck. He's going to really struggle at PMQs tomorrow especially if the vote goes against him tonight.

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  9. Latest sub-sample from YouGov - 2/3 September
    SNP 45
    Lab 18
    Con 18
    LD 12
    BXT 3
    Grn 3
    Oth 2

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  10. Lab SNP and LD all singing off the same sheet in that they won't back a GE till bills passes. Guess they would simply abstain in any FTPA vote.

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  11. I'm with Angus MacNeil.

    There is no need for a an indy mandate; that comes from the will of the people in 2016 and the following parliament vote.

    However, a UK election could be used to get a mandate for withdrawing Scotland from Westminster rule by the old method if UK democracy is cancelled by a Section 30 refusal.

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  12. According to a Times journalist there is a full Scottish poll in their paper tommorrow and 'looks grim for the Tories'.

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  13. They have bottled it..whip won't be removed if the rebels vote with Gov tomorrow

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  14. Any chance the SNP would join a coalition government and/ or election slate and defer Indy temporarily to s fixed date ( say firmly attached to next general election) for the " good of the country"?? This would take high ground and earn public esteem.

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  15. Scotland Poll

    🔹49% back Scottish independence

    🔹48% believe Boris Johnson’s actions are making Independence more likely.

    🔹Tories would lose 10 of 13 seats & SNP would win 51 seats.

    #indyref #indyref2 #Brexit
    #TomorrowsPapersToday

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    1. So a narrow majority (51%) on average for Yes now, and that's with the UK still firmly in the EU / prior to any indy campaign (with nobody to lead any bettertogether2).

      Lowest No share (inc DK) for yougov since 2015.

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