Monday, August 5, 2019

Has Ashcroft poll turned Our Precious Union to ASHES? Westminster in shock as a MAJORITY of Scots now support independence

Apologies for the slight delay in getting this post up - I was writing an article for The National about the Ashcroft poll, which you can read HERE.  But here are the rather wonderful figures that you've probably already seen...

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 52%
No 48%

It's not possible to give percentage changes from the last comparable poll, because Ashcroft hasn't been polling on independence in recent years.  That means, strictly speaking, that we shouldn't talk about "Yes moving into the lead", because it's conceivable that previous Ashcroft polls (if they had existed) would also have shown a Yes lead.  However, even the most Yes-friendly pollsters had No consistently in the lead last year, so it does seem overwhelmingly likely that the Ashcroft methodology would have shown a No lead giving way to a Yes lead at some point - but what we don't know is exactly when that would have happened.  Is the Yes breakthrough a direct consequence of Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister?  We'll only find out for sure if Panelbase (the only firm to have polled fairly regularly on independence this year) shows a Yes lead in their next poll.

Before I proceed any further, I'd just like to observe again that Mike Smithson, known and loved by thousands of East Dunbartonshire residents as a keen letter-writing impartial Lib Dem election expert, is utterly unspoofable.  Here we have a poll that shows a majority in favour of independence for the first time in two years, that shows a majority want a second independence referendum by 2021, and that shows Nicola Sturgeon is comfortably the most popular leading politician in Scotland, well ahead of Ruth Davidson and Jo Swinson.  And yet what is Smithson's choice of headline?  "Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Farage in Scotland."  Technically true, Mike, but I'd gently suggest to you that there's a bigger picture here that you might be missing through those Lib Dem goggles of yours.

In fact, a direct comparison between the personal ratings of Nicola Sturgeon and Jo Swinson makes for pretty depressing reading for the new Lib Dem leader.  Respondents were asked to give each politician a score between 0 and 100, with 0 being the worst possible figure and 100 the best.  In spite of the hatred (I don't think that's too strong a word) that some unionists feel towards Ms Sturgeon, and in spite of the fact that Ms Swinson is significantly less well-known than Ms Sturgeon, the 30% of voters who gave Ms Swinson a basement rating of between 0 and 10 is virtually identical to the 34% who did the same for Ms Sturgeon.  Meanwhile, a measly 4% gave Ms Swinson a high rating of between 81 and 100, compared to a very substantial 24% who did so for Ms Sturgeon.

Although it's true that Ms Swinson's average rating of 31 (that's 31 out of 100, remember!) is higher than that of deeply unpopular politicians such as Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, it's not that much higher in the overall scheme of things.  She's only seven points ahead of Mr Johnson on 24, and nine points ahead of Mr Corbyn on 22.  That's not really much to write home about.

Average (mean) rating of each politician out of 100:

Nicola Sturgeon 45
Ruth Davidson 36
Jo Swinson 31
Willie Rennie 30
Boris Johnson 24
Jeremy Corbyn 22
Richard Leonard 22
Nigel Farage 18

Average (median) rating of each politician out of 100:

Nicola Sturgeon 50
Ruth Davidson 26
Jo Swinson 25
Willie Rennie 25
Richard Leonard 10
Jeremy Corbyn 9
Boris Johnson 3
Nigel Farage 2

You can just imagine the mounting panic of unionist politicians and strategists when they first read through this poll.  Normally it's possible for them to find a silver lining to cling to somewhere, but on this occasion the Yes side seem to have managed a full house...

Majority for independence - CHECK
Majority in favour of holding an independence referendum by 2021 - CHECK
Majority who think maintaining EU membership is more important than staying part of the UK - CHECK
Majority who think Brexit strengthens the case for independence - CHECK
Majority who think Brexit makes independence more likely - CHECK
Majority who predict a second independence referendum would result in a Yes win - CHECK
Nicola Sturgeon the most popular politician - CHECK

I'm slightly dubious about the wording of the question that asks whether EU membership or staying part of the UK is more important if it's not possible to have both, because there's an implicit presumption there that it would be desirable to have both, which may have caused some pro-indy people to opt out of the question altogether.  In spite of that, though, 45% say EU membership is more important, and only 43% say remaining in the UK is more important.

A few people have been asking whether it's true that 16 and 17 year olds were not interviewed for the poll.  As far as I can see from the datasets that's the case, so it's possible that the Yes vote should be a little higher and the No vote should be a little lower.  It's unlikely that it would make more than a 1% difference in each case, although that would still be enough to turn a 4% Yes lead into a 6% Yes lead.  That said, it's worth pointing out that there was a poll a few months ago that appeared to exclude 16 and 17 year olds...but that turned out to be an error in the datasets.

111 comments:

  1. I've been reading on the internet that this poll didn't include 16-17 years olds OR EU nationals. I wonder why?

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    Replies
    1. I believe it was based on the voter register which doesn't include them, or that's what I read anyway. I'm sure someone will correct if I'm wrong.

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  2. Apparently Ashcroft poll didn't include 16-17 year olds so YES lead probably larger.

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    Replies
    1. I’ve got 15/17/19 years old peeps in my life and the last year or so has seen them move from a shrugging dismissal of my ravings to a coherent and clear ‘yes’ where from they are now battering the generation of the third age!
      I’ve just got the 54yo to convince and that’s suddenly 5-0 instead of 1-4 in one little house.

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    2. Great work Donald, hope you're moving on to neighbours next

      Delete
  3. James, that should be:

    'Westminster in shock as an OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of Scots'

    ReplyDelete
  4. Some unionist trying to discount it as merely an online poll excluding OAP's xD

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. However it also excludes 16 & 17 year olds who are extremely pro-independence and I believe it excludes EU citizens who are also now pro-independence.

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    2. And, of course, doesn't actually exclude OAPS.

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    3. Some of these folk see "online poll" and think that means it was conducted on Twitter by saoralbaman1314.

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  5. I know many psychic mediums and they all say that Scotland will be independent after the next referendum

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    1. They just seem to be holding the majority view.

      If there were to be a new referendum on Scottish independence within the next two years, what do you think would be the most likely outcome?

      52% Scotland would vote to become independent
      30% Scotland would vote to remain part of the UK

      Ex. DK
      63% Scotland would vote to become independent
      37% Scotland would vote to remain part of the UK


      Incidentally, the 'wisdom of crowds' approach is known for being a pretty accurate method of polling.

      Delete
  6. Interesting that both female voters and social grade ABC1s are majority pro-independence in this poll.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. That's because the slappers want to lick my lolly and flick my peanut.

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  7. The poll might give those sitting on the fence but needing a bit of a prod to finally join the majority.

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  8. going back to the how to stop a hard brexit, reading around and the answer will be that if Boris said the election would be past 31st October then parliament would simply vote in confidence for a Government lead by a person who would be prepared to ask for an extension. The PM can be anyone. The new PM would then get the extension and then call an election.

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    1. Yes, there could be some sort of government of national unity involving Lab/SNP/Lib/Green/Remain Con...

      With, erm, Corbyn as PM and Abbot as chief brexit negotiator?

      Of course such a government would wouldn't have any electoral mandate so it would be extremely undemocratic. PM Corbyn would really need to immediately call a GE to get a mandate; something unelected Boris should likewise do for this no deal.

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    2. Except it would be a cold day in hell that the Lab would go into coalition with the SNP.

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    3. The SNP would need to be guaranteed that the national unity government would cooperate with Scotland on iref2, granting an immediate section 30 etc.

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  9. probably not Corbyn no, more likely a backbench MP that has cross party respect/gravatias.

    Of course there would be GE once the extension has been granted, as you say the temporary PM would have no mandate. Boris would still be the leader of the Conservatives so he could run an campaign based on no deal.

    Long and short no matter what bluster he or his cronies come out with he cant force a no deal Brexit without a majority and he has not got a majority for no deal.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. and on the subject of sending Boris to get an extension, So24s are no longer considered neutral in the latest version of Erskin May and therefore can be amended. As a So24 can be granted by the speaker at any time this method could be used to instruct the Goverment to seek an extension.

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    2. There was an in-depth expert analysis on Radio 4 on the way home and nobody was anywhere as optimistic as you.

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    3. Also, as for a brexit extension, what would be the reasons given to our 27 neighbours to agreed to yet another one?

      A GE isn't a reason obviously as it doesn't guarantee anything. A second iref can't be promised without a GE mandate to hold one, and even then, again, it doesn't guarantee anything.

      The neigbours want to know if the UK is:
      1. Staying in
      2. Leaving with the negotiated deal
      3. Crashing out

      Any extension would need to be dependent on solid guarantees the either 1 or 2 will be delivered. Otherwise, there's no point to it.

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    4. no they will grant an extension if asked for a GE or second red

      Anyhow will find out in a month or so will find out then.

      Delete
    5. Macron didn't seem so keen last time. My French family would back France refusing this time; me too. As an Irishman, I also favour that.

      I don't think England should be allowed back in. Not the EU anyway; just say the EEA for 10 years then it can reapply for EU membership. Wales is ok as while it voted leave, it hasn't been a pain in the erse racist prick ever since.

      This would discourage other countries from wasting everyone's time and money voting to leave, then just hanging around demanding extensions while shouting racist 'French are turds' and 'Irish are all murphys' etc abuse at member states.

      Certainly, if the UK does stay in by revoking Article 50 at the last minute, a large bill should be paid to cover all the wasted negotiations and damage to other EU economies.

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    6. AS an Irishman you would favour a 6bn hit to the Irish economy?

      Anyhow as has been said no deal is the UK choice, not the EUs therefore if the UK says can we have an extension please to stop a no deal it would be granted.

      As I say will find out in a month or so.

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    7. No deal is not Ireland's choice; it's not for me to favour. It's entirely a British choice.

      And as I said, I think the answer is to kick the UK out into the EEA by the 31st, not letting England back in for 10 years. That would offset any economic shock of refusing an extension.

      The UK should accept one of the 3 options on the table by the 31st, otherwise this will go on and on and on, costing everyone billions. If it can't accept this, it can go straight to transitional status in the EEA. That also preserves the backstop meantime.

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    8. cant kick the UK into the EEA, the UK would have to agree to be a part of it.

      No, there will be an extension granted and then a GE.

      Delete
    9. Wouldn't the UK need to join EFTA to be in the EEA?
      The existing members, Norway in particular have made no bones about the fact that they wouldn't allow the UK to join - its just too big.

      They would however welcome Scotland...

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    10. So, Johnson is going to be forced by MPs to go to the EU and ask for an extension with the justification of trying to get a majority in a GE for a backstop-free hard brexit?

      --

      The transition is EEA in effect. The EU could say 'you are out on the 31st, no deal or transition EEA status are your options. Any new extension is just to the transition'.

      Which is exactly what the options are for leaving. Deal or no deal. If the UK leaves, England can only be eea for at least 10 years.

      Delete
    11. There is no transition period without the deal, no deal means no transition period.

      Perfectly acceptable to say that you think the EU should grant an no deal, but also have to acknowledge the damage that will do to EU (Irish in particular) economies. Which is why the EU will grant an extension, so they don't have to take the economic hit.

      Delete
  10. I find myself warming towards independence after my fellow Unionist scumbags trashed the disabled part of the ground at Kilmarnock yesterday.

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    1. Bitter known Jock/Irish Nat si impersonator above.

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    2. An overwhelming majority of Scots support independence.

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    3. Not real Scots just the foreign incomers.

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    4. The majority of Scots either born or new now support Independence.

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    5. Real Scots wish to manage their own country. I'm Scottish, born and bred, and I've had the sense to support the cause of Scottish independence for 25 years. You sir, are a subservient drone of your Westminster masters, evidently with nothing better to do than troll this blog, spouting your xenophobia and toxic vitriol. You have no ability to look beyond what you're told by your masters, which really illustrates your stunted intellect and lack of ambition. By all means keep posting though, because you are after all very entertaining but, FYI, nobody is laughing 'with' you. ��

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    6. Scottish born voted for indy in 2014. Now the new scots, English migrants included, are swinging tae Yes.

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    7. So not Irish as previously stated.

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    8. So Irish as previously stated.

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  11. How will you Nat sis manage to convince unionists to vote for independence when you want to hand that independence over to the EU corrupt regime.

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    1. I stroke my nipple with a Union Jack ripple.

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    2. So what is the Jocko Nat si masterplan to move exports when you set up the hard border on the M74/M6 & M1(A1). Will your EU masters help! Will you extend the Clyde Tunnel to the European Continent! Rather costly to convey goods by ship. But you do hate the English and that is more important.

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    3. We can just trade with England on wto terms.

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    4. Out of interest, are you saying the english hate Scots so would block through traffic? If so, scottish independence is critical.

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    5. Thought you hated the English and would do a pact with your EU pals and starve them out. Revenge for Culloden and Cherlie.

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    6. No, it's you that said the English hated Europeans, Scots and Irish, hence brexit.

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    7. Scotland would face the same problem Ireland does now, RUK geographically cuts it off from the rest of the EU. To get the vast majority of its goods to market they would need to go through two borders, one into the uk, one out of the uk, if there was no agreement.

      Ships aren't a suitable replacement, the M6 at carlisle has 10,000 HGVs a day - that's equivalent to the capacity of the world's largest container ship every day (2TEU = 1 Forty foot HGV) and they're going at 60mph not 10 knots.

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    8. My heart bleeds for Cyprus, Malta and Greece. As we all know, they're on the breadline and can't trade with anyone. Tragic.

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    9. "Ships aren't a suitable replacement"

      I'm honestly struggling to understand how ships are not a suitable method for getting goods from Scotland to mainland Europe. How's it done at the moment, a wormhole at Dover?

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    10. Wait a minute, how the fuck do we get goods to the UK? Ships are no good right?

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    11. Is Iceland richer than the UK because it has no land borders with anyone?

      Asking for a friend.

      Delete
    12. Ruth: err, yes those 3 countries are in the breadline. You can't have been so natcentric as to be unaware of Greece's economic woes?

      Skier: I believe those marvellous chaps at Hogwarts have managed to magic a wormhole at Dover indeed. Called a "Channel Tunnel" or something, Carruthers was saying.

      Delete
    13. I think Dominic Raab's been posting.

      Delete
  12. Further signs of the golden age being upon us.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49240921

    UK consumer spending falls to record low

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    Replies
    1. It's all going swimmingly well. Carry on governing.

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  13. The Tories may be reluctant to call an early general election and lose a lot of seats in Scotland.

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  14. Corbyn will not do a deal with other parties in order to secure the Premiership just to ask for an extension and call a GE. A No Deal exit engineered by Johnson suits him down to the ground. Economic chaos will follow, the pound will plummet, there will be a hard borer in Ireland and hence no trade deal with the US, etc. etc. Using all this Corbyn will seek to win a GE called around the end of the year. Once won he will immediately open negotiations with the EU to join the EEA or some other compromise, and thereby be the saviour of the nation.

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  15. If the UK crashes out of the EU on the 31st against the will of it's people and parliament, then fascism has begun.

    If parliament can stop BJ, then the UK remains a (pseudo-) democracy by the skin of its teeth.

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    1. The Parliament voted to give a referendum and said they would accept the result. It is fascists who do not accept results.

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    2. And it's the nat si fash it's who do it worse. They hate every one accept theirselves.

      Delete
  16. Is it not worrying that even with BoJo and No-deal brexit, the best indy can muster is 50 and a bit? Not even the same margin No managed last time (which is apparently not good enough for the issue to be settled). Wee Nicky Krankie, remember, wants 60%+ before she'll push the red button on a 2nd ref.

    The problem is the SNP have put all their energy into pointing out how awful everyone else is, but none into showing anything positive themselves (which when you consider named persons, police scotland vat farrago, the new hospital debacles etc maybe wasn't a goer)

    I think what these polls show is that screeching brexit / evil toaries makes FA difference to 90% of the people, they have entrenched views either way.

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    1. The majority now support independence. Unionists have a lot of work to do if they want to convince people of the case for unionism.

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    2. Unionism has all the tools in its hands. It has the money, the media, the power... yet Yes keeps on just creeping up? Why is unionism failing like this? Something fundamental and irreversible must be happening in Scotland.

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    3. lol the UK's turned into a complete shithole and the Nats still can't win!

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    4. Dolly Mundell (aged 76 3/4)August 6, 2019 at 8:52 PM

      Alistur Jackoff.
      He does things.
      He shouldn't.

      Delete
    5. I see Kenny MacAskill agrees with me, perhaps we're one and the same?

      https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/why-snp-should-worry-that-scottish-independence-isn-t-further-ahead-in-polls-kenny-macaskill-1-4978699

      Delete
  17. 52% (Ashcroft) to 53% (Panelbase) Yes in a snap referendum held tomorrow while the UK is still firmly in the EU is incredible.

    Just imagine what Yes will reach if Britain actually leaves, particularly the hard way...

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  18. I remember back in Aberdeen we used to call Michael Gove the Go Go Girl.

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  19. Just one solitary paper backs indy, yet Yes is now the majority position of Scots. Truly remarkable.

    At some point soon, a number of mainstream papers will take the business decision to back indy, likely starting with the Scottish Sun. At the same time, unionist politicians will start to cross the floor, at which point, support for the union will collapse utterly.

    This may happen as soon as early September if it looks like democracy has come to an end in the UK and it's heading for a no deal dictatorship.

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  20. Well done Boris dig in and leave. Hopefully the EU will not even honour WTO rules and attempt to blockade our goods. That would be war and the EU fascists showing what they really are. The Jock and Irish Quislings will be the really big losers.

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    1. Where will the UK do it's WTO required border checks with Ireland?

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48511379

      Trading on WTO terms would also mean border checks for goods, which could cause bottlenecks at ports, such as Dover.

      It needs to do these or face having no WTO trade deal. Argentina is already preparing the relevant rules breach complaint paperwork.

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    2. Britain does not need to trade with the ROI and that is why ROI is shiting itself. The EU bum boy Varadkar needs to talk to the UK and not via his EU rulers. The problem Varadkar has is the UK is a major trading party for ROI and will the EU meet the defecit when we leave. The EU will shit on ROI if required.

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    3. I am impressed by the coherence of the Conservative response to the EU acting in its members' best interests. I hadn't expected anything as coherent as "Grizzble mooghy mooghy frashp. Zooble zooble zooble. Kradge. Vossajand. Krephy. Krephy. Thmimp".
      I'd been expecting them to speak total shite.

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    4. To have a deal with the WTO, the UK needs a hard border with the EU, which includes Ireland. So, the UK must enforce a hard border with Ireland somewhere. Cairnryan it will be. At least for a few months before the border moves to Gretna.

      The UK doesn't understand unions of equals. That's why it still doesn't get why the EU has not and will not shit on Ireland. It won't happen because the EU has 27 members and it would not last long if it carved up member states, handing over bits of territory from these to aggressive neighbours.

      While the UK was in the EU, the other 27 members were neutral on N. Ireland. Now the UK is leaving, the 27 are on Ireland's side.

      The same will happen with Scotland. Not a peep from the EU in 2014. If the UK isn't a member though, a formal offer can be made to Scotland for joining as an indy member state.

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    5. So when Scotland stops trading with England when ordered by their new EU masters who will make up the defecit!

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    6. If England has trashed it's economy, it would be able to afford Scots exports. We'll have to look elsewhere.

      Anyway, the British empire is almost dead; it's stupid to keep relying on that. Scotland needs to seek new trading partners like Ireland has done successfully. A brexiter gave me this idea.

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    7. The Brit Scottish Empire officially died during 1956. The Yanks took over. Scottish edjication results have fallen under Nat si rule although Govan has done well inspite of Knickerless being previously involved.

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    8. I stopped going to the bingo cause so many of the tarts smelt like labradors.

      Delete
  21. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49257322

    Labour government 'would not block' indyref2

    A future Labour government would not block a second Scottish independence referendum, according to shadow chancellor John McDonnell...

    ...Mr McDonnell said: "The Scottish Parliament will come to a considered view on that [independence] and they will submit that to the government and the English Parliament itself.

    "If the Scottish people decide they want a referendum that's for them."


    Note his use of 'English Parliament'.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The thing is... that is a clear policy.
      Labour... having an actual policy on something that is clear and not ambiguous?
      Labour?
      I guarantee that by this time tomorrow they will have rowed back or added caveats to turn this into some sort of dribbling nonspeak that suggests they will simultaneously allow and block another indyref. It's what they do.


      Delete
  22. I have been stocking up on Spam at Farmfoods. Loads of flour and vegetable oil. Deep fried Spam Fritters and bully beef kept the Brits going when blockaded by the German U boats. Ve vill deal with the EU boats and their Jock Nat si collaborators. Zat is vie ve hiv das nuclear veapons.


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    1. I've been knitting my own condoms like I did during the Boer War. We use to call them French Letters but I won't mention them EU scumbags any more. I call then Imperial Briefings.
      I don't use them. I only knit them.

      Delete
    2. Scottish men do not use condoms we just fire the hunky dunk intae any wummin or men in our modern EU society. The EU will eventually promote Catholic paedophilia as normal. Ma bum is sore ma.

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    3. Then I buy myself some cookeen to use as a sponger. Happy days. Harsh but fair.

      Delete
  23. New Com Res out with Labor topping but not near majority. SNP at 50 seats the lazy way.

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  24. In preparation for coordinated massive price hikes...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49258852

    Brexit: Food industry seeks no-deal competition waiver

    Existing rules prohibit suppliers and retailers discussing supply or pricing.

    As noted many times, Brexit will hit the poorest the hardest.

    Foodbanks will run out first as people can no longer afford to donate (donations rarely coming from the rich), while food will be in short supply.

    It's a right wing Tory wet dream.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. It doesn't matter. We won the war.

      Delete
    2. Sure, I know it's now 52% for indy, but no harm aiming higher.

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    3. Scotland will not become independent.
      Countries don't become independent any more.

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    4. Scotland will remain in union while England becomes independent.

      Delete
  25. Jonh Mcdonnell says a future Labour Gov will allow a second Jock independence vote. 2050 is not that far away. Just in time for my telegram from the Queen/King!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Really? Quote from page 104 of Labour party manifesto.

      Labour opposes a second Scottish independence referendum. It is unwanted and unnecessary, and we will campaign tirelessly to ensure Scotland remains part of the UK. Independence would
      lead to turbo-charged austerity for Scottish families.

      Delete
  26. The golden age dawning.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47470864

    ...79% of food on supermarket shelves is imported from the EU...

    ...The number of drugs in short supply has been rising since the EU referendum

    ...the Royal Pharmaceutical Society warned in January that pharmacists were struggling to obtain common medicines - including painkillers and anti-depressants.

    ...the number of EU migrants arriving has utterly collapsed (by 66% to end September last year)...

    ...UK house prices are going negative, particularly in the London area. The negative equity this generates triggered the 2008 crisis...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ...79% of food on supermarket shelves is imported from the EU...

      Can i ask how that food will get to Scotland if its in the EU and the UK isn't?

      Twice through customs, twice the Tariffs.

      Delete
    2. Hello, Einstein. I lìke what I see.

      Delete
    3. "Can i ask how that food will get to Scotland if its in the EU and the UK isn't?"

      The UK is an island you dumb ass. How do you think Scotland currently gets food imports from the EU, by teleporting them?
      Scotland is a net food exporter, but that aside, if the 65 million person UK can feed itself by ship, and through a hard border in the future, wee 5 million Scotland can do it through an open one to the EU.
      And if Scots importers wanted to use English ports, are you saying England would block transit* trade with Scotland? For what reason? Hate? Racism?

      ---
      *No customs duty payable / no need to conform to transit country regulations.

      Delete
  27. I find this so funny.

    Scotland exports 64% of its goods to the rest of the UK, only 16% to the rest of the EU.

    Scotland is only 8.1% of the UK, the UK is 16% of the EU.

    Scotland won't be able to keep the £

    It WILL have to form a hard border with England and impose EU tariff schedules.

    It has a 10% primary budget deficit while the EU requires <3% so austerity on stilts to follow.

    It can't borrow on the UK's credit rating.

    It would have 3 MEP's out 750.

    All UK government businesses and bases would have to move out of Scotland

    Scotland also loses its 16% per head UK subsidy.

    Scotland, the country that will make Greece look rich

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You kookie nut!
      You fun.

      Delete
    2. Tell me what's not true! that's the really funny bit.

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    3. Real hearts and minds stuff.

      A few more like this and it will creep up to 53%.

      Delete
    4. No worries, I'm happy to help, it means more money to spend on England.

      Here's an idea for you, why not raise a campaign for England to leave the UK and you can stay in the UK and in Europe.

      Then everyone's happy.

      Delete
  28. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49247754
    Leo Varadkar: Post-Brexit vote on Irish unity not the way forward

    Some sensible comments here from the Taoiseach. Of course it is obvious that in the event of a hard Brexit border polls / indy refs would not be held in the short medium term. If things are as bad as predicted the all government departments will be working flat out to ensure food/order medicines etc are available, there will not be resources available for running a ref/border poll.

    Of course from an economic/business point of view it would be a non starter as well, with the pound crashing you do not add more uncertainty by running a ref/border poll, this would push sterling further down increasing inflation and therefore increasing the amount of hurt a hard Brexit would cause.

    Best guest would be that any ref/border woll would be 18 months after a hard brexit, giving time for the intitial impact to work through.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Yes, and if you are the Taoiseach, you want to ensure a Yes to reunification. Best let the empty shelves and job loses hit home for a while. A year into brexit and there will be no going back (to the UK) for N. Ireland.

      It will be the Irish feeding and providing medicine to N. Ireland post brexit. It's not as if England gives a shit about them, so the SE will be prioritised for Emergency supplies.

      Scotland and N. Ireland will be last on the list for cancer drugs etc as far as Westminster is concerned. If any trucks reach us, they'll be empty.

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    2. It's not Westminsters remit to provide medical supplies for Scotland, that area falls to the Scottish Government.

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  29. The Good Friday Agreement obliges the Secretary of State to call a border poll if there is a reasonable supposition that Yes might win. The timing of such a poll is not entirely in the Secretary of State's gift, nor in that of the Taoiseach. Casually announcing in Belfast that the Irish Government is not going to prepare for reunification is a really dumb move on Varadkar's part, a pity as he has been quite sure-footed up until now.

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  30. Precisely, reasonable supposition, so how many polls you need to get that 2? 3? that's 6 months to a year in its self, then there has to be an equivalent poll in the Republic, if both Goverments are no rush they can string out the date another few months sorting out a mutually convenient date.

    Like I said any border poll would be a year to 18 months from a hard Brexit.

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  31. You papes really should use the term 'Belfast Agreement' good friday is a christian religious slogan and NI has a secular Assembly.

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