Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Scotland in Union's "yawns" turn into blind panic as its OWN POLL backfires spectacularly: half of Scots want to leave the UK if there's a no-deal Brexit, and a clear majority want a second indyref before 2026

As you'll doubtless be aware, there was a crisis a few days ago at Johnston Press, which appeared to place in some doubt the future of The Scotsman newspaper.  Many independence supporters responded jubilantly, saying the paper had got what it deserved after treating half of this country's population with utter contempt for years.  The notoriously thin-skinned journalistic contingent on Twitter were furious about any celebrations over the potential (albeit very unlikely) demise of a newspaper, building themselves up to a level of righteous hysteria that gave the impression they thought Yessers were guilty of something roughly equivalent to the incitement of genocide.  But incredibly, The Scotsman have today taken a step which they must know perfectly well goes a long way towards proving the Yessers' point.  They've given over their front page lock, stock and barrel to what amounts to a propaganda press release by the fundamentalist anti-independence outfit Scotland in Union.

Basically SiU commissioned an independence poll from Survation, but insisted that a non-standard question be used in the full knowledge that it was likely to give the misleading impression of a more favourable position for No than is usually the case.  We don't need to cast our minds back very far to recall just how susceptible poll respondents are to changes in question wording - there have been polls in the last few months that misleadingly showed a "Yes vote" in the low 50s, but that was only because respondents were invited to assume that Brexit would go ahead.  OK, it's highly likely that Brexit will indeed go ahead, but if respondents are asked to make any sort of assumption, it's likely that at least some of them will subconsciously believe that it is "supposed" to change their view.

If one sort of leading question can produce an illusory gain for Yes, it's not at all surprising that a different sort of leading question can produce the opposite, and that's exactly what has happened in the SiU poll.  We know that in standard Survation online polling, the Yes vote stands in the mid-to-high 40s, but by instead asking the non-standard question "Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?", SiU were able to produce the false impression that Yes support has slumped to 40%.  In a disgraceful betrayal of basic journalistic ethics, The Scotsman has played along with this propaganda stunt, and has cynically left its readers with the sense that the poll figures represent a real change in public opinion.

Why would respondents react so differently to a "remaining in/leaving the UK" question?  We don't know for sure, but what we do know is that this is nothing new - there were polls in the run up to the first indyref that showed exactly the same effect.  One possibility is that a minority of respondents may be unsure of what "the United Kingdom" actually is, and may wrongly assume that they are being asked about their views on Scotland retaining the monarchy.

Amusingly, though, the poll has backfired on SiU in a couple of ways.  Firstly, it shows that, if Don't Knows are removed, a clear majority of respondents want there to be a second independence referendum before May 2026, ie. within the next seven-and-a-half years.  It's hard to overstate just what a staggering finding that is for a poll commissioned by Scotland in Union - it essentially proves that one of their central claims about public opinion is the polar opposite of the truth.  Here are the figures with Don't Knows removed -

When should another referendum on Scotland leaving the UK be held if at all?

Total for before May 2026: 54.0%
Total for after May 2026 or never: 46.0%

Incidentally, even with the leading wording about "leaving the UK", a very substantial minority of 46.7% want a second referendum before May 2021, ie. within just two-and-a-half years.

The other amusing detail is that there is a statistical tie on the question of whether Scotland should "leave" the UK in the event of a no-deal Brexit, ie. the result is within the standard margin of error of the poll, meaning that it's impossible to know which side is really in the lead.

If the UK leaves the EU WITHOUT a deal in place, and there is a subsequent referendum on Scotland leaving the UK, how would you vote?

For Scotland to remain as part of the UK: 52.3%
For Scotland to leave the UK: 47.7%

There are also Westminster voting intention figures, which continue to show a handsome double-digit lead for the SNP over both the Tories and Labour.

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:

SNP 39% (-1)
Conservatives 26% (-1)
Labour 24% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)

The percentage changes listed above are measured from the Scottish portion of the recent GB-wide Survation mega-poll for Channel 4.  If the last full-scale Scottish poll from Survation for the Record is used as the baseline instead, the SNP are actually up 3 points.  Either way, though, these new figures put the SNP on course for substantial seat gains -  mainly from Labour, who would be almost wiped out once again.


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31 comments:

  1. when scotland chooses independence, I hope it's a tidal wave

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Would that be selling out SCOTLAND TAE RA EU.

      Delete
    2. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its ultra-right-wing screams.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    3. GWC is nazi war criminal noted for his sick sexual experiments with Alsatian puppies.

      His sexual preference is pedo-bestiality. He currently resides on a ranch in Argentina and spends his time buggering the livestock senseless before sucking his own cum out of their manure encrusted shitepipes and lovingly snowballing it with his sister.

      Mossad have been informed.

      Delete
    4. Did you spend long weekends in Floak during your teen years, Glesga2?

      Delete
    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its ultra-right-wing screams.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  2. This fieldwork is pre-brexit deal release. I'm sure the Tories will have surged ahead with support for indy plummeting since then.

    Scots have seen witnessed the 1st rate governance and diplomatic prowess of the UK in all its glory over the past week. There’s just no coming back for indy support now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. skier are you getting a subsidy from the EU fascists?

      Delete
    2. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its hate-filled ravings.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  3. There's something suspicious about the claimed yes support in 2014. If there was a concerted effort to manipulate a result that's what it might look like. Claim you voted yes but will now vote no.

    Similar tricks could be done to show SNP support leaving to other parties.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I just stumbled across thisrevealing comment from notorious Yoonbot.

    Aonghas Curran.


    @Anguscurran
    Nov 18
    More
    I went to a secondary modern in Scotland.

    My own children go to religious grammar schools in Northern Ireland.

    I know the difference.

    There are no secondary Moderns in scotland and never have been. Also he lives in Ulster yet claims to have intimate knowledge of the SNP destroying life in Scotland.

    Where's that mentalcase JenniferJones with her sockpuppet detector when you need one?

    SIU onviously don't just spend their money on fraudulent polls and small boys for alastair cameron.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its ultra-right-wing screams.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  5. "Jumped the queue"

    Those words are all you need to know to understand how utterly screwed the UK is. International reputation in complete tatters. Mass emigration of skilled overseas workers well underway. Fkd.

    The UK government is revolting. Disgusting. The EU shouldn't let the UK back in. Kick it out of the EEA and any customs union. GTF UK.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/kathy-sheridan-theresa-may-deserves-neither-our-pity-nor-our-admiration-1.3704660

    “EU citizens will no longer be able to jump the queue” for jobs in the UK, she pronounced in that oddly accusatory tone on Monday. And millions of human beings who thought they were just responsible EU citizens in a reciprocal, mutually-beneficial, rights-based arrangement, were landed right back to that shocking June morning when they realised that to many of their neighbours and even their own extended families, they would always be aliens.

    ReplyDelete
  6. People from Germany will have same immigration rights as someone from America shocker...
    The UK Goverment is going to be is going to be using the same sort of immigration policy that is used in the overwhelming majority of countries in the world are they are disgusting??

    I have yet to find anyone who can tell me why someone from an EU country has should have more of a right to live and work in the UK than my American sister in law, with the end of FOM that disparity between EU and non EU citizens will stop.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PS Can you justify you claim that skilled workers are fleeing the country? Non EU immigration is higher than it has been for a decade are you saying that they are unskilled?

      Delete
    2. These EU countries offer reciprocal freedom of movement to our people. Therefore people can have more freedom and opportunity. By boiling down to the lowest common denominator we deny people opportunity.

      Delete
    3. You are just arguing for the shittiest set of opportunities and then saying that's good enough. All the while you are just really not wanting any foreigners coming to the UK....It's as clear as day.

      Delete
    4. Ive got no problem with foreigners, why do you think that, I have a problem with people from certain countries having more rights than others. Do you think its fair that someone from France has more rights than someone from Japan? If so why?

      Delete
    5. Scottish Blood OnlyNovember 21, 2018 at 9:25 AM

      Jist keep the English away fae oor wummin.

      Delete
    6. Non-EU workers in the UK workforce has not changed in 10 years. EU workers are leaving en-masse.

      See Figure 1.

      https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/ukandnonukpeopleinthelabourmarket/november2018

      Delete
  7. Have to say Running Man that I first visited France during 1969 using the old temporary passport you got from the Post Office. We did not give the European Mafia billions of pounds in those days although we did spend a fortune defending them from the Soviet Gulag mobsters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its ultra-right-wing screams.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    2. I've been touched by the furry finger.

      Delete
    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its ultra-right-wing screams.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    4. I've been touched by the furry finger too.

      Delete
    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its ultra-right-wing screams.
      Poor, tormented, xenophobic Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  8. "and a clear majority want a second indyref before 2026", Are you for real ?. There will be a referendum long before that.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Poll questions about 'leaving the UK' wind me up. We will be ending the UK, not leaving it. It is like saying Slovakia 'left' Czechoslovakia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Or like saying Lady Di left the Total Family. God bless her.

      Delete
    2. The saddest day in British history and one we shall never forget but cherish. We all remember where we were when the news came through from Paris. Oh God, let it not be true, we begged. But it was. Yet we piece our lives together slowly and quietly. The British Way. Getting on with things without a fuss. We often lose battles but we don't lose wars.

      Delete
  10. Wish you a very 26 January Happy Republic Day 2019 to all of you. January 26 is our Republic Day. We celebrate this day every year. In 1950, our India became a sovereign democratic republic and it had its own constitution.
    Source: https://www.26januaryhappyrepublicday.in/

    ReplyDelete