Friday, November 16, 2018

Rare GB-wide Panelbase poll has Labour and the Tories locked together at 40% apiece

This isn't strictly a Scot Goes Pop exclusive, because the figures were attached to the Scottish Independence Foundation press release that went out several hours ago.  But as far as I can see no media outlet, even on Twitter, has yet picked up on the fact that the new poll includes the first GB-wide voting intention figures from Panelbase since last year.

Westminster voting intentions (GB-wide, Panelbase):

Labour 40%
Conservatives 40%
Liberal Democrats 8%
UKIP 5%
SNP 4%
Greens 3%
Plaid Cymru 1%

Which is all very interesting, because of course most other polling firms have been showing a modest Conservative lead recently.  It may be that Panelbase's methodology, like Survation's, is closer to the Labour-friendly end of the spectrum.  (And, as we all remember, Survation's results were rubbished in the run-up to last year's election, but they ultimately turned out to be the most accurate.)

Christian Wright asked a question on the previous thread about the treatment of EU citizens in current polling, which was rather uncanny, because I was always planning to address that very point tonight.  At the weekend, when I saw the original datasets from Panelbase, I queried whether EU citizens and 16 and 17 year olds had been included in the sample - because it seemed to me if they had been, that in itself could be sufficient to explain why the Remain vote in Scotland had apparently risen slightly from 62% at the 2016 referendum to 64% now.  I didn't see Panelbase's response, but it was read out to me.  If I understood it correctly, they said that 16 and 17 year olds were excluded from the EU referendum question, but that they were relying upon a "how likely are you to vote?" question to screen EU citizens out.  That seemed to me to be a bit unsatisfactory, because it means that you'd need all EU citizens to be fully aware of their right to vote in Scottish elections, but not in Westminster elections or in any repeat EU referendum, to be sure that you're interviewing the right sample for each question.  It's highly likely, I would suggest, that some EU citizens are unclear about the likely legal position.  So they may, for example, be wrongly screening themselves out of indyref polling, but also wrongly including themselves in EU referendum polling.

Later, Panelbase agreed to recalculate the results in line with the concern I had raised.  To be perfectly honest, I was hearing about all of this second-hand, so I couldn't quite make sense of which particular concern they were addressing or exactly how they had addressed it.  Apparently the methodological tweak made no difference at all on the GB-wide numbers, and only a 1% difference on the Scottish numbers - but, again, I'm not quite clear about which question the 1% difference occurred on.

The important point here, of course, is that it seems intuitively likely that EU citizens have swung disproportionately from No to Yes on the independence question because of Brexit.  If independence polls aren't incorporating EU citizens correctly, it may be that there's a little something going on beneath the surface that the polls are currently unable to detect.

Here are the other numbers from the Panelbase poll...

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Scotland only):

Yes 45% (+1)
No 55% (-1)

Westminster voting intention (Scotland only):

SNP 37% (-1)
Conservatives 28% (+1)
Labour 25% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 2% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (-1)

EU referendum vote (GB-wide):

Remain 53%
Leave 47%

EU referendum vote (Scotland only):

Remain 64% (+1)
Leave 36% (-1)

Holyrood constituency ballot:

SNP 39% (-2)
Conservatives 27% (+1)
Labour 24% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 3% (n/c)
UKIP 1% (-1)

Holyrood regional list ballot:

SNP 37% (+2)
Conservatives 26% (n/c)
Labour 22% (+2)
Greens 6% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)
UKIP 2% (n/c)


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31 comments:

  1. I'm sure then Tories will have picked up a few points in the past few days, what with their admirable handling of brexit negotiations.

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  2. EU referendum vote (GB-wide):

    Remain 53%
    Leave 47%

    EU referendum vote (Scotland only):

    Remain 64% (+1)
    Leave 36% (-1)

    Do you have the England, NI and Wales findings? See nothing on their website.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Stuart, there are no England-only findings in the datasets, just GB-wide. I think England-only findings may have been sent to SIF, though.

      Delete
  3. Here I was hoping for an SNP at 68% and Scottish Green Party​ at30% then 1% each for Labour and Tory just a hope really and I know it's probably not possible.

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  4. I agree with Ross Thomson. Mundell should quit. I also agree with Mundell that Thomson's an erse.

    :-)

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    Replies
    1. Poor Nat sis who pretend they are Scottish. The UK will leave the EU. The unnecessary MSPs are history. The European working class are wakening. Their middle class rulers better watch out.

      Delete
    2. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  5. So the North Britishman finally sinks. Can't be long before the Herald goes too, shortly followed by the mountain of debt that is New Rangers (est. 2012). Soon only the untrusted (by a majority now) BBC will be left standing.

    Nothing happens in isolation. The last days of Rome are upon the British Empire.

    Anyone who still seriously thinks the UK can emerge from this final union consitutional crisis unscathed needs their head scewed back on. No stopping this out of control downward spiral now. Not even Diane Abbot or Micheal Gove can save us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scottish Nationalism in 2018, people celebrating people potentially loosing their jobs across social media just because they worked for a publication that had a different editorial policy to what they support.

      Cant work out why you mentioned a football club in a list of media outlets as well....

      Delete
    2. You'll need to point out the celebration. I only see a statement of facts. I note you trying to point score over potential job losses however; it's not a good look.

      Scotland has gone from the second city of the empire, to 74% Yes to semi-indy in 1997, then 45% Yes to complete in 2014, now just shy of 50% Yes the morn no questions asked. Polls suggest if brexit goes ahead it's all over, and long term the age demographics have things only a matter of time. The demise of the Scotsman and Rangers are intimately linked to this long term change and will be discussed in future history books on the topic. I'm just observing this as it happens in real time.

      Certainly, if there is to be blame placed on the job losses at the Scotsman group, then the board are where to look. They've pushed a dying political agenda to the point its killed the paper. I read that they have also ensured that while the company goes down the pan, they personally are 'awright jack' financially in Great British Tory style. Sounds like those running Club 2012 and organising brexit for us.

      I personally, like other indy supporters, have merely looked on as a bystander to all this.

      Delete
    3. I'd say the above polling is a little out of date right now. Events are starting to overtake us at breakneck speed.

      England is smashing the union. The attacks on devo / the softer unionists like Murray Foote and the Big Yin were just the start; now it's betraying the no surrender unionists like Ross Thomson and David Mundell.

      Scottish indy supporters can but look on in wonder.

      Delete
    4. I wept for the tea ladies of Belsen when the camp closed down and they were left unemployed. Jobs at all costs.

      Delete
    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  6. An interesting question polling question would be one on indy support should N. Ireland end the current UK union, taking the flag with it etc. That's where we are headed right now.

    If N. Ireland goes, the state we inhabit will end both in terms treaty that holds it together (1921 version), flag, name, territorial extent, democratic constitution (Scots/Welsh MPs would be more greatly outnumbered)... Northern Ireland leaving would be a massive event and justify #indyref.x to see if Scots wanted to join this new union with just the kingdom of England & Wales. After all, the union people agreed to remain in back in 2014 would be no more. The UKoGB&NI would have ceased to exist.

    This is why Scots unionists are furious with Westminster politicians and their proposed brexit deal. Ross Thomson and mates see London as utterly betraying them, and rightly so. If one home nation domino falls, it will be extremely difficult to stop the others coming down with it.

    ReplyDelete
  7. From Craig Murrays Web Site:

    "It seems to me a general election is the most probable outcome of the current turmoil. The Scottish Government should announce that, in the event of pro-independence MPs winning a majority of Westminster seats, Scotland will declare Independence and apply to the United Nations for recognition and admission. That sets out a fair democratic test before the electorate, and is analogous to the way that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic became independent, plus the overwhelming majority of states in Africa, Asia and South America – almost none of which was by referendum."

    Exactly - a manifesto commitment to repeal the act of union - get elected - do it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except getting a majority of seats at Westminster does not mean the majority support the SNP. SNP has the majority of seats now but pro Union parties have 62% of the popular vote.

      So getting majority of the seats would not be enough to convince other countries that the majority want Independence.

      If people are so convinced there is an Independence majority Scot Gov can call an election tomorrow, they have the power, then you take the result of that to the UN.

      Delete
    2. No, they cannot "call an election tomorrow". They could probably engineer an early election if they wanted to, but it wouldn't be as simple as just "calling" one.

      Delete
    3. my mistake meant call a referendum tomorrow

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    4. I agree with you that they probably have the legal power to do that (although I would note that most of your fellow travellers disagree).

      Delete
    5. Very Sensible PersonNovember 17, 2018 at 5:53 PM

      Jock Nat sis ur aw aff their Heids they want to keep giving oor money to the EU corrupt beaurorats.

      Delete
    6. Due to EVEL, Scots can no longer elect a UK PM, chancellor or any cabinet position really, save the pointless SoSfS. Same for the N. Irish and Welsh. How could you have a UK PM that can't vote on English laws?

      This shows you how inherently racist the UK state is. We have an effective apartheid.

      Personally, if the English want to exclude shoe shiners like Ross Thomson from ever being in their cabinet, that's ok with me; it only acts to undermine the union. What I don't understand is why the snivelling shoe shiners haven't worked out they'll never be anything more than that due to EVEL?

      Delete
    7. I mean UK cabinet posts are a revolving door right now; every tom dick and farage Tory MP is getting a shot at the the big time.

      Not the jocks though. Doesn't matter that we send 13 south. They just sit outside the important meetings and they'll never, ever be allowed to hold a cabinent position.

      Sorry if you love the union, but you're a mug. England won't let your MP near a position of power. You are a second class citizen. The keep you outside the room so they can barter away your fisheries etc. Your love is unrequited. Just like the DUP you'll be sold down the river if it suits.

      Delete
  8. Notice that latest polls predict Labour short of a majority by 32 seats and SNP likely to gain 8 or 9 seats .That is the golden scenario.A Labour government propped up by the SNP

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tartan Tories supporting Labour. We did have the Liberal Tories supporting the real Tories so anything is possible.

      Delete
    2. Oh fruit tuition. You can try and make sure you have received this message and any other information you need.

      Delete
    3. Aye, maybe a straw in the wind?

      Mike Smithson
      @MSmithsonPB
      Tories slump 5% in latest @OpiniumResearch poll fr Observer
      LAB 39 (+2)
      CON 36 (-5)
      UKIP 8 (+2)
      LD 7 (-1)
      SNP 5 (+1)
      GRN 3 (=)

      5% for the SNP UK wide would be some big gains in these parts.

      Delete
    4. President Macron Former BankerNovember 18, 2018 at 12:01 AM

      It should be a concern for Nat sis that suicide may be prelevant amongst their ranks when we leave the corrupt EU. The Jocks have become used to being administered from Bruxelles.

      Delete
    5. Oh sweet Wilbur. You tempt me with your naughty talk.

      Delete
    6. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny watching it argue with its other personalities.

      Delete
    7. You have a silly name.

      Delete
    8. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      Poor, tormented, miserable Cordelia.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete