Friday, April 28, 2017

Support for independence shoots back up in crucial YouGov poll

Tonight brings word of YouGov's first full-scale Scottish poll since Theresa May called the snap general election, and it provides tremendous reassurance on the independence question.  After two consecutive YouGov polls that have had the Yes camp below the 45% achieved in the 2014 referendum, something approaching normal service has been resumed.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 45% (+2)
No 55% (-2)

As ever, it's worth bearing in mind that YouGov probably haven't interviewed 16 and 17 year olds, so even assuming their methodology is otherwise sound, the 45% for Yes could conceivably be a slight underestimate.

We've now had five different polling firms report on independence in April, and four of them have shown some sort of movement towards Yes (although it was only a trivial 0.1% swing in the case of Survation).  The increase is so small in each poll that the pattern may just be coincidence, but the important thing is that there is absolutely no corroboration for the Kantar/TNS findings suggesting there has been a dramatic drop in the Yes vote.  That poll sticks out like a sore thumb to an even greater extent now.

With depressing predictability, a heavy dose of spin is being applied to the YouGov poll tonight by unionist propagandists in the mainstream media - a graphic has been put out with the title "Losing Ground".  It's quite true that the No side appears to be losing ground, but I suspect that's not what they meant.  I'm sure it makes some kind of weird sense in their own heads.

Admittedly, there is less good news on Westminster voting intentions, where the SNP have slipped to an unusually low 41%.  However, the Tories have failed to make the type of breakthrough suggested by Panelbase recently, leaving Nicola Sturgeon's party still holding a commanding lead.

Westminster voting intention (YouGov) :

SNP 41%
Conservatives 28%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 3%
UKIP 2%

That's quite an odd set of numbers, because other polls have implied that the SNP are basically losing support direct to the Tories, but YouGov seem to be suggesting that some of the support has gone elsewhere.  If you'd told me in advance that the SNP were going to be as low as 41%, I would have expected the Tories to be in the thirties.  At the end of the day, the lead of the first-placed party over the second-placed party is the most important thing in any first-past-the-post election, so we can draw considerable comfort from the 13% gap - and also from the 3% support for the Greens, some of which may find its way to the SNP by polling day (partly for tactical reasons, and partly because the Greens won't be standing in all constituencies).

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46.0% (+0.3)
No 54.0% (-0.3)

(The Poll of Polls on independence is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each firm that has reported at least once within the last three months. The firms included in the current sample are Panelbase, BMG, Ipsos-Mori, YouGov, Kantar/TNS and Survation.)

Westminster voting intentions :

SNP 42.8% (-0.8)
Conservatives 29.3% (-1.1)
Labour 16.5% (+1.2)
Liberal Democrats 7.0% (n/c)

(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

72 comments:

  1. Theresa May's National FrontApril 28, 2017 at 1:53 AM

    Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe

    CEO, @brexitanalytics Former Tory National and International Security Policy Adviser. Columnist for ConservativeHome @conhome

    Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

    I was in 2005 Tory campaign - we worked assiduously to ramp up anti immigrant feeling.

    Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

    And from Brown on nobody challenged lies that immigrants took jobs, were here on benefits etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. bad enough for an immigrant,child of an immigrant or second generation immigrant to discover the stark truth in black and white about the scum that is the tory party..but to then actually work for this kind of filth and devote time to getting them elected??..the abject humiliation and shame..god almighty!..it doesn't bear thinking about

      Delete
    2. Theresa May's National FrontApril 28, 2017 at 12:04 PM

      Matt Turner‏ @MattTurner4L Apr 21

      Former British Ambassador points out Theresa May’s election platform is identical to the BNP’s in 2005 http://evolvepolitics.com/ambassador-theresa-may-manifesto-bnp/ …

      Delete
  2. (on the Times trying to proclaim with a straight face that if 1 in 4 voters went tory that would prove all scots welcome their presence and tory nirvana would ensue in scotland)

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 1 hour ago

    Winning post positioned at 25%.
    (The same level which for Corbyn is an apocalyptic disaster.)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 1h

    Times poll predicts spectacular election victory for the Tories. [SUB PLEASE CHECK] pic.twitter.com/fRYF92tE4D

    ReplyDelete
  4. i can see how the polls probably reflect levels of support for the parties as answers to a survey question. But their accuracy stops there in terms of actual voting

    T his is because of how the best organised parties (certainly the SNP and somehow also the Tories) identify and then get out their own voters.

    Perhaps the pollsters should weight according to strength of party activism! A motivated vote is worth a lot more than a disgruntled supporter who can't be arsed getting to the polling station...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They do weight by voter enthusiasm.

      Delete
  5. I remember the days when labours dominance was backed up by the mantra that "only a vote for labour can stop the Tories"
    The SNP needs to play the same card.. protecting Scotland from the forthcoming hardline Tory government.

    Right now we have tactical unionist voting enabling a Tory revival, often by people voting against their own interests,

    ReplyDelete
  6. The SNP fall the the low 40s is quite concerning, and from what I can see its more from people moving to undecided than moving to Tory (leave voters maybe). Maybe when the time comes some of those people will move back over to the SNP, and and there will also be a small Green vote to squeeze as well.

    ReplyDelete
  7. The campaign by the Tories lately is for people to vote tactically in their favour but I have a feeling there could be tactical voting to keep them out.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi James you say the polls do not include 16/17 year olds. Do you know if they include EU Nationals? Remember in a Scottish referendum both will be allowed to vote. That is almost 250,000 votes which I suspect would be 80% for independence.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Tory vote already beginning to slide.

    Surge in the whole anti-indyref but as time goes on, people start to think about it weighed up against the actual tories they are projected to vote for and well, they conclude that if there is another indyref, they can just vote no.

    But given May a mandate to do whatever she wants, with a hard brexit and more austerity...might just be too much for them.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Labour will not get 18% so some of that will go to the SNP. The Tories will get 22% and I stand by that. The week before the election we will know where we stand. Ruth is toxic and so are the Tories. Unless we are saying that 28% of Scotland is total hard right wing nuttters? That is a scary thought.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Maybe I am way off with my thinking but I would have thought that increases in the Yes support would be tracked by increases in support for SNP and Indy supporting parties. Thus we have polls that clearly contradict that supposition.

    So in other words we have more polls that are weighted lies. They are polls designed to manipulate and thus not inform. It is all about the Brit Nat Press and Media narrative again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Or your tinfoil hat is on too tight again.

      SNP 41% + Green 3% = 44%
      Yes = 46%

      Hardly a massive difference.

      Delete
    2. Besides, not everyone is so obsessed with independence that it rules their entire voting strategy.

      I'm left of centre. I'm not greatly interested in separation, but my council ballot will still rank the SNP higher than the Tories.

      Delete
  12. Hideaway May and her revolting kipper toriesApril 28, 2017 at 12:00 PM

    Mhairi Hunter‏ @MhairiHunter 3 hours ago

    Feeling pretty strong and stable today, might go to an empty warehouse and talk to some shelves.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Definitely not to be watched by tories or spread far and wide.

    https://munguin.wordpress.com/2017/04/28/did-i-really-say-that/

    ReplyDelete
  14. James, in your poll of polls could you clarify what your plus and minus figures are comparing to? The last poll of polls? I am not sure giving these plus or minus figures is valid, because the changes between polls of polls come from individual polls coming in to or going out of the calculation, but which individual polls are not comparable to each other having different methodologies etc.

    Could you add a ride stating what the plus and minus figures compare to, and adding that they are just for fun?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, the percentage changes are always measured from the previous update of the Poll of Polls.

      Delete
  15. Rape Clause Ruth and her NHS Privatising toriesApril 28, 2017 at 12:32 PM

    Voting for Tories in Scotland is a vote for

    Pension Cuts

    Tuition Fees

    End to Free Social Care

    NHS Privatisation

    Charges for Prescriptions

    So don't be daft

    ReplyDelete
  16. James, do you subscribe to the YouGov polls all rigged by Tories position.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I don't think YouGov rig their polls. However, I do think they have an attitude problem, which sometimes affects their methodology.

      Delete
  17. I've seen a few happy Tories - gaining Moray etc - but whilst these polls definitely do show a decline in support for the SNP, what they fail to do is take in local factors and YouGov do not poll by regional area.

    So, whilst there is a chance that the Tories will win seats in Scotland. The East Renfrewshire seat going Tory in my opinion looks suspect, it'll be a three-way battle with McDougall standing for Labour.

    West Abdn/Kincardine - this was a Lib Dem seat until 2015. It went Tory in Holyrood but within different boundaries. If you are a pro European/UK Lib Dem? Are you seriously going to back to the Tories and their hard Brexit especially when your party has a chance itself of taking the seat back?

    P.S Is Carlotta Vance on PB, our Aldo?
    P.P.S If so, do you not have a life, Aldo? Posting every few hours on PB.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you have compare to apples with apples not apples with oranges
      comparing one GE poll in scot. to previous Holyrood polling will never tell you much
      those are completely different voting systems
      as you said boundaries also make a big difference
      the most relevant period for comparison is before the last GE in scot. where all the polling ended up underestimating the SNP vote

      Delete
    2. Caught in the actApril 28, 2017 at 4:32 PM

      Yes it is. It Let it slip in the middle of an unhinged rant and didn't even notice

      Delete
  18. So, support for independence stalled and the SNP sliding back. Its not looking good for separatism.

    No, Kevin, I do not post on PB.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll 'Aldo' / Carlotta Vance calls scottish people "morbidly obese, dangerously unfit and nicotine stained." Described opponents of the Tory Rape Clause as "spaz" "chav" "loser" and "autistic". Spouts vile abuse about mental heath involving the mothers of posters on here and generally behaves like a tory ned.

      Delete
    2. "Support for independence stalled."

      Aldo-speak to English translation : "Support for independence has increased by 2%."

      Delete
    3. Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 12h

      Times poll predicts spectacular election victory for the Tories. [SUB PLEASE CHECK] pic.twitter.com/fRYF92tE4D





      .

      Delete
    4. Red Tories Down and OUTApril 28, 2017 at 4:14 PM

      Chris Coltrane‏Verified account @chris_coltrane 4 hours ago

      If you voted Labour but are now voting for the most authoritarian, far-right-wing Prime Minister of your life, maybe take a look at yourself

      Delete
  19. Carlotta 'Aldo' VanceApril 28, 2017 at 4:07 PM

    Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe

    CEO, @brexitanalytics Former Tory National and International Security Policy Adviser. Columnist for ConservativeHome @conhome

    Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

    I was in 2005 Tory campaign - we worked assiduously to ramp up anti immigrant feeling.

    Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

    And from Brown on nobody challenged lies that immigrants took jobs, were here on benefits

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Matt Turner‏ @MattTurner4L Apr 21

      Former British Ambassador points out Theresa May’s election platform is identical to the BNP’s in 2005

      http://evolvepolitics.com/ambassador-theresa-may-manifesto-bnp/



      .

      Delete
  20. expectations tory vote hopefully falls 1st hurdle

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. fair bit of time before the westmisnter elecs.
      sufficient time for May hiding from the public to backfire
      sufficient time for the tory election fraud to explode
      sufficient time for the far-right in the tory party to make their demands known to May over the hardest of Brexits

      Delete
  21. Voting for Tories in Scotland is a vote for

    Pension Cuts

    Tuition Fees

    End to Free Social Care

    NHS Privatisation

    Charges for Prescriptions

    So don't be daft

    ReplyDelete
  22. These polls are fascinating. Tory+Lab+Lib+UKIP generally now equals the no to indy percentage and SNP+Green gives the yes percentage. This would seem to suggest that the era of unionists voting SNP to get left wing government or to send a message to Westminster is over.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Carlotta 'Aldo' VanceApril 28, 2017 at 4:21 PM

      The tory troll 'Aldo' / Carlotta Vance calls scottish people "morbidly obese, dangerously unfit and nicotine stained." Described opponents of the Tory Rape Clause as "spaz" "chav" "loser" and "autistic". Spouts vile abuse about mental heath involving the mothers of posters on here and generally behaves like a tory ned.

      Delete
    2. (on the Times trying to proclaim with a straight face that if 1 in 4 voters went tory that would prove all scots welcome their presence and tory nirvana would ensue in scotland)

      Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 1 hour ago

      Winning post positioned at 25%.
      (The same level which for Corbyn is an apocalyptic disaster.)








      .

      Delete
    3. "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

      - 'Aldo'

      Delete
  23. Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 2 hours ago

    How the Scottish Tories' latest election leaflet reveals far more than they ever meant it to:

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/another-accidental-truth/

    Now, “the SNP should try to improve schools and grow the economy, and we’ll oppose them every step of the way” initially sounds like a comedy misprint. Except the thing is, it’s what the Tories actually do.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 28, 2017 at 4:40 PM

    John Harris‏ @johnharris1969 23h

    Complete bastards. No other word.

    John Harris Retweeted Karen Buck

    Karen Buck‏@KarenPBuckMP

    Homelessness already deeply traumatic. Now Westminster Council want £12pw per box of possessions in storage- or contents will be destroyed

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The more subsidies you Jokes get the more you want. At least show some appreciation to the English and their charity towards you.

      Delete
    2. The more subsidies you Jokes get the more you want. At least show some appreciation to the English and their charity towards you.

      Delete
    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  25. Hideaway May and her revolting kipper toriesApril 28, 2017 at 4:52 PM

    Michael Crick‏Verified account @MichaelLCrick Apr 26

    In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats

    ReplyDelete
  26. You Nat si English hating fascists have tried every trick in the book with your propoganda lies and yet you are behind in the polls.....
    I note even the Tim Brigade for independence are wearing their green and white Yes badges. Well who would expect the bum bhoys to wear blue and white!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You Nat si English hating fascists have tried every trick in the book with your propoganda lies and yet you are behind in the polls.....
      I note even the Tim Brigade for independence are wearing their green and white Yes badges. Well who would expect the bum bhoys to wear blue and white!

      Delete
    2. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 28, 2017 at 7:48 PM

      John Harris‏ @johnharris1969 23h

      Complete bastards. No other word.

      John Harris Retweeted Karen Buck

      Karen Buck‏@KarenPBuckMP

      Homelessness already deeply traumatic. Now Westminster Council want £12pw per box of possessions in storage- or contents will be destroyed

      Delete
  27. CRUSH THE SABOTEURSApril 28, 2017 at 7:46 PM

    Michael Crick‏Verified account @MichaelLCrick Apr 26

    In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats

    ReplyDelete
  28. Just had a call from Survation. Questions were pretty standard.

    Where are you?
    Age?
    Who did you vote in 2015?
    Who did you vote in 2016 constituency?
    Who did you vote in 2016 list?
    Did you vote leave or remain?
    Did you vote Yes or No?

    How likely are you to vote in the next UK election(1-10)?
    Who will you vote for?
    How likely would you be to vote in indyref2(1-10)?
    How will you vote?

    Did you vote in the last council elections?
    How likely are you to vote in these ones?
    Who will be your first preference?
    Who will be your second preference?

    What kind of housing are you in?(renting/owning/family)
    Employment status?(unemployed/part time/full time...)
    Public or private sector?
    What is the job of the chief earner in household?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well they don't have long at all till the councils and the GE is weeks after that so expect heavy polling from here on in
      there'll be plenty of private polling too for that matter

      Delete
    2. You have some memory to remember that lot. Do you want a job at Cheltenham?

      Delete
    3. You have some memory to remember that lot. Do you want a job at Cheltenham?

      Delete
    4. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  29. Hideaway May and her revolting kipper toriesApril 28, 2017 at 8:09 PM

    Philip Collins‏ @PCollinsTimes 8 hours ago

    I am usually a strong defender of politics but this empty, choreographed, stale, boring Tory campaign essentially implies we are all idiots.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 28, 2017 at 8:10 PM

    Paul Lewis‏ @paullewismoney 6 hours ago

    Govt delays unpopular statement on raising state pension age despite Pensions Act 2014 s.27(2) "report must be published before 7 May 2017"

    ReplyDelete
  31. More terrorist acts and planning going on everday in the UK and Knickerless and her fash mob want tens of thousands of the fascists to enter Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The poster above is a far-right racist tory sockpuppetApril 28, 2017 at 11:27 PM

      The troll 'GWC2' / Fitalass calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe

      CEO, @brexitanalytics Former Tory National and International Security Policy Adviser. Columnist for ConservativeHome @conhome

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      I was in 2005 Tory campaign - we worked assiduously to ramp up anti immigrant feeling.

      Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe Feb 26

      And from Brown on nobody challenged lies that immigrants took jobs, were here on benefits etc.

      Delete
    3. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 28, 2017 at 11:33 PM

      Roger Anderson‏ @Rog_Anderson 12 hours ago

      And 3 packages containing suspected *anthrax* are sent to SNP offices with notes saying "Get SNP out, Tories in".

      Delete
    4. They are already here quine. We call them Tories and Naw Bags like yourself.

      Delete
  32. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 28, 2017 at 11:28 PM

    Borrheid Bam‏ @EatMyMeatPete 54m

    There is a disturbing undercurrent to this mince about "divisiveness". And that undercurrent is intrinsically fascist and anti-democratic.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Jock Nat si fascists seem obcessed with rape. The Nazis liked rape. Is there a similarity.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jock Nat si fascists seem obcessed with rape. The Nazis liked rape. Is there a similarity.

      Delete
    2. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 29, 2017 at 12:54 AM

      Edinburgh RapeCrisis @EdinRapeCrisis

      Act NOW to end the #rapeclause! Find your MP at https://is.gd/R9cRv5 & write to them - template letter at https://is.gd/fw3sDk

      Delete
    3. Rape Clause Ruth and her NHS Privatising toriesApril 29, 2017 at 1:00 AM

      Ruth Patrick‏ @ruthpatrick0 4 hours ago

      Listening to #bbcaq as @ProfTomkins (to boos) attempts to defend the indefensible on the rape clause: 'it's only a 4 page form'

      Delete
    4. TORY ESTABLISHMENT CRUSHES THE SABOTEURSApril 29, 2017 at 1:45 AM

      Michael Crick‏Verified account @MichaelLCrick Apr 26

      In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats


      Same tory establishment and bigwigs which supported Cameron, Osborne and put May where she is for those who still don't get it. Purging some of the Brexit headbangers and clearing the way for a new broom after May gets made the fall guy for the oncoming Brexit catastrophe. Such a shame after she's impressed everyone with her 'unique' approach to campaigning like a fart in a trance. ;o)

      Delete
    5. CRUSH THE SABOTEURSApril 29, 2017 at 1:59 AM

      The Independent‏Verified account @Independent 7 hours ago

      Tory MP standing down after 'telling students homosexuality is dangerous to society' http://ind.pn/2qeRiTV

      Delete
  34. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 29, 2017 at 12:56 AM

    Voting for Tories in Scotland is a vote for

    Pension Cuts

    Tuition Fees

    End to Free Social Care

    NHS Privatisation

    Charges for Prescriptions

    So don't be daft

    ReplyDelete
  35. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 29, 2017 at 12:57 AM

    The Food Umbrella? @thefoodumbrella

    A list of the Tory MPs under criminal investigation for #ElectionFraud

    RT & SHARE

    #87RT #GeneralElection #GE2017 #GE17 #GeneralElection2017

    pic.twitter.com/nrVRYVCmbv

    ReplyDelete
  36. Rape Clause Ruth and her Pension Stealing ToriesApril 29, 2017 at 12:58 AM

    David Aitchison‏ @aitchison_david 11h hours ago

    Ruth Davidson facing investigation for campaigning from her Scottish Parliament office.

    ReplyDelete