Friday, October 7, 2016

GAIN! Gallus SNP gallop to greatness in gorgeous Garscadden as lousy Labour limp to latest lamentable loss

The exact result from the Garscadden and Scotstounhill by-election hasn't been published anywhere yet as far as I can see, but if Twitter is to be believed it's roughly as follows...

SNP 43% (+16)
Labour 39% (-23)
Conservatives 10% (+7)
Greens 5% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 2% (+1)

That's just under a 20% swing - higher than in most recent by-elections.  And unlike some of the recent so-called "Labour gains from the SNP", this one is a genuine SNP gain, because Labour won the popular vote in the ward last time around, and by an enormous margin.

So there still doesn't seem to be the slightest grounds for hope that Labour can head off the arrival of a historical landmark next May that will be (almost) on a par with the fall of Byzantium - the long-overdue loss of control of Glasgow City Council.  The now-familiar pattern continues - Labour are haemorrhaging left-wing support to the SNP, and centre-right/unionist support to the Tories.  How strong Labour have been in an area in the past continues to be a perversely strong predictor of how well the SNP will do now.  Much of working-class Scotland has simply switched wholesale from one default choice of party to another over an astonishingly short period of time.

As far as the direct swing to the SNP is concerned, it's not really to any great extent a rejection of Jeremy Corbyn or Kezia Dugdale - most of the switchers had already moved on (to coin a phrase) from Labour before either took up office.  But the current leadership may have to shoulder more of the blame for the swing to the Tories, which wasn't yet happening under Ed Miliband or Jackanory Jim.

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Why Theresa May's hard Brexit makes a second indyref almost inevitable

Just a quick note (another one) to let you know that I have a new article at the International Business Times, about how the recent ugly hardening of the Tory stance on Brexit has vastly simplified Nicola Sturgeon's decision on whether to call a second independence referendum.  You can read it HERE.

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Theresa May and her Little Empire of Leftovers

Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article on the TalkRadio website about Theresa May's new (and doomed) imperial zeal, the richly satisfying failure of the Labour coup, and the mind-boggling fact that Nigel Farage is somehow still UKIP leader, nineteen days after being replaced by Diane James. You can read it HERE.