@NeilCaple @JamesKelly isnt going to happen. Constituencies heading for repeat of 2015 as SNP support has increased since then.— Kevin Williamson (@williamsonkev) May 2, 2016
Aft Fri either I'll be relentlessly ridiculing @jameskelly for his misleading kneejerk SNP propaganda.Or vice versa. https://t.co/1nElTeB4uX— Kevin Williamson (@williamsonkev) May 2, 2016
It's going to be vice versa, Kevin. I'm still extremely hopeful the SNP will win an overall majority, but it now looks likely they'll need list seats to do it. It also looks likely that their constituency share of the vote will be very slightly down on what they achieved last year, and they're obviously going to win a slightly lower share of constituency seats. But as long as the vast bulk of SNP supporters ignored the vote-splitting propaganda from the likes of Bella Caledonia, as I suspect (and hope) they did, we should still be OK when all the list results are in.
As a number of us have been saying all along -
* Opinion polls are snapshots, not predictions.
* Opinion polls are not necessarily even accurate snapshots.
* There's no way of knowing for sure how constituency votes will translate into constituency seats - it all depends on geographical distribution.
* The claims that "everyone knew" the results of 73 individual constituency elections in advance were utterly fatuous.
We took a lot of abuse and mockery for pointing out these simple truths, but I'm very glad we did.
In most parts of Scotland it's actually been just as good for the SNP as last year - it mostly seems to be in a small number of No-voting areas that the going is a little tougher.