Thursday, January 14, 2016

SNP lead by 31% in supremely scrumptious Survation survey

Considering how close we are to the potentially hugely important fifth election to the Scottish Parliament, we haven't exactly been spoiled with a tonne of polls recently - there has only been one over the last few weeks (from TNS).  In particular, the regular Survation poll for Cleggy and the Vow-Meisters has become a very distant memory, but the drought has finally been broken tonight.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 52% (-1)
Labour 21% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 42% (n/c)
Labour 20% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (+3)
Greens 9% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)

The fieldwork was conducted between the 8th and 12th of this month, so is bang up to date.  As far as I can see, the Record report doesn't specify the data collection method, but the figures look so similar to previous online Survation polls that I'd very surprised if this turns out to be a phone poll.  (That said, we have extensive anecdotal evidence that Survation have been doing phone polling in recent months - probably private polling for a political party.)

The percentage changes listed above are from the previous Survation poll in September, and as far as the SNP and Labour are concerned are so tiny as to be of no statistical significance whatever.  So it looks very much like the state of play between the two largest parties has remained frozen in time over the last four months, in spite of the Corbyn factor, in spite of the Michelle Thomson and Natalie McGarry controversies, and in spite of all the other muck the unionist parties and media have attempted to chuck at the SNP.

The Conservatives, on the other hand, can perhaps be permitted to feel modestly encouraged by this poll, because it's the first proper semi-corroboration for the jump in their support shown by Ipsos-Mori a couple of months ago.  If they are making progress, the most obvious explanation is that working-class voters in Glasgow feel that Labour haven't being opposing independence strongly enough.  (***SARCASM SIREN***SARCASM SIREN***)  But it should be remembered that the TNS poll in December continued to show the Tories flatlining, so the jury is still out.

The big cause of concern for the SNP is not the trend, but simply that Survation have once again shown them at "only" 42% on the list, which is slightly lower than they achieved in the 2011 election, when of course they required a minimum of twelve list seats to win the overall majority that ultimately secured an independence referendum.  As things stand, they may be doing just about well enough to win on constituency votes alone this time, but they don't have much margin for error to play with if their support starts to slip, or indeed if their vote is being overestimated by Survation. 

78 comments:

  1. I wonder how well Glasgow Working Ass's Party is doing. Ha Ha. Go on SNP.

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  2. Where does 10% of the SNP vote go, when voting in the list? :s That seems like a fairly large difference.

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    1. Greens, for the most part

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    2. The Greens have 9% on the list...

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    3. Libdems manage to squeeze +1% on the regional list. Anka.

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    4. It's almost as if a substantial chunk of SNP voters have concluded it's better to....



      Nah, I'm only messing ;)

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    5. It is really the other way round, most Green voters tactically vote SNP in constituencies(You're welcome)

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    6. How many Greens will vote tactically for the SNP in the constituency where Patrick Harvie is standing? It's utterly meaningless to claim you're voting tactically if there isn't even a Green candidate.

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    7. Actually no James, a vote for a party which is not your first choice is just that, a tactical vote. A tactical vote is where you vote, not for your first choice but for the next best. In the case of us Greens, overwhelmingly it's SNP because of the indy question. In the few cases of having a Green to vote for it's not necessary but in every other constituency on Scotland it's unavoidable. As David MacDonald says, you're welcome to my vote, but at least admit that the SNP is benefitting from tactical Green votes in the constituency vote.

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    8. I'm sorry, but that's just complete nonsense. By that standard, if I lived in England (or France, or Paraguay), any vote of mine would be a "tactical" vote because my favourite party (the SNP) would not be on the ballot paper.

      No. A tactical vote is if you vote AGAINST your party in order to further a strategic objective. You can't vote against your party if there isn't a Green candidate.

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  3. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 14, 2016 at 11:18 PM

    Vote SNP both votes in May.

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  4. The Tories are reviving! What's going on?

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    1. They got a lower share of the vote in 2015 than 2010. It could possibly be the lack of tactical voting due to list seats. Or maybe that people have been persuaded by recent great work by Jeremy *unt...

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    2. THERE IS NO TORY REVIVAL
      List Vote

      McLetchie, 1999 - 15.35%
      McLetchie, 2003 - 15.5%
      Goldie, 2007 - 13.9%
      Goldie, 2011 - 13.9%
      Davidson, 2015 - 14.9%
      The last poll - 13% +/- 3%
      This poll - 16% +/- 3%

      To give you a comparison Nick Bourne (I have no idea who he is) managed to take the Welsh Conservatives from 16% to 22% between 2003 and 2011. That's hardly a 'revival' but the spunk-a-thon that we would be inundated with if Davidson manages 19% (with the press fully behind her) would be a sight to behold. The Tories finding themselves is a damning indictment on how idiotic the right-wing are in this country.

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    3. The Tories finding themselves in a position where they would be celebrating 19% in an election with a "future Conservative Party leader" and a massively favourable media? It's pretty startling just how inept they are.

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    4. There's no point comparing apples and oranges: eg Ruth's Westminster 2015 performance to the other Holyrood election performances. History suggests the Tories perform less well in Holyrood elections

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    5. My point is that even if they don't perform less well and perform AS WELL, they will be looking at a result worse than the McLetchie years.

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  5. Margin of error noise on the Tory vote? Or are Labour shedding the hardcore unionist vote?

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    1. At this stage? Margin of error. If the Tories get over 20% or consistently high teens you could say there is a swing. On the list vote (where it matters for them), they are hovering around 15%. That's what they got last time.

      No-one votes Tory regardless of how much the press down South wants everyone to love 'Ruth'.

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  6. I will voting SNP - Green.

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    1. So will I...because the point that keeps getting lost amidst all of this SNP 1 and 2 noise is that you vote for the party you support on the list. Forget the unfathomable (if you have a working brain like mine and much of the electorate) charts and calculations, all of them are trying to make predictions from a tactical voting pattern, and it's damn near impossible to predict. The only way to vote on the list is for the party you like the most. And btw Sturgeon is my constituency MP so there'd be precious little point in voting Green there.

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  7. I don't think the Tory vote is as good as some folks would make out, the outcome will be totally apparent after the voting closes in May. No surprise! Vote SNP X 2, you know it makes sense! Go Scotland, let's show Hope over Fear is the way to go!

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  8. The Labour vote in Scotland seems to be falling, no matter what Jeremy Corbyn does. UK-wide, I think that the Labour vote may be rising...a bit...

    Given his politics, I think that that's a good thing.

    Derek

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    1. I don't see any benefit from voting Labour. Their party is a mess, and any positive result in Scotland for them will just be used for internal Labour battles and not as proof of a mandate for change within the UK.

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  9. Just like TNS, this poll is an advert for 1st vote SNP 2nd vote Green. This would be the smart nationalist vote in certain regions, especially Lothian.

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    1. I don't believe this. When the SNP are polling relatively high (as they were with TNS), you guys jump on that and say "you see, the SNP don't need list votes". But when the SNP are polling relatively low, as they are in this poll, putting them close to the danger zone where they might very well need list votes, somehow that's still an advert for playing silly buggers on the list. I'm not sure you can have it both ways.

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    2. The list looks like it is going to be a free-for-all. I'd probably prefer RISE to Greens. Don't doubt some activist's commitment to indy in Greens, but I have no idea what their policy on it will be in 2016.

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    3. They are committed to independence but want to propose a separate Scottish currency and will commission a feasibility study into it.

      In other words, a hell of a lot more responsible than the SNP.

      Aldo

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    4. I'm in the Greens and will be voting for them on the list because that makes sense to me and what I want to see. They ARE committed to indy, and, like the SNP they have supporters and probably some members who are support the union. They are in the minority, but I say this, if I ever came across that wee shit Aldo or his likes anywhere near the Greens I'd kick his Tory ass from here to kingdom come. The greens are NOT like any sort of (self serving, narrow minded, eonomy and environment and family and individual and employment and society destroying Tory I ever encountered. Piss right off Aldo you slug.

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    5. I like the Greens. If the polls are still really good for the SNP, I'd be tempted to lend them a vote. There is absolutely no point pretending that Patrick Harvie has not said several times he considers the independence question settled. As such, I have no idea how the Scottish Greens propose to do anything except tweak the land reform bill since energy policy is devolved. That has absolutely nothing to do with the rank and file Greens, many of whom are Scottish nationalists.

      To claim the Greens want to work toward an independent Scotland, I think is disingenuous.

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    6. Hard to imagine a green kicking anyone's ass. You'd be more likely to offer me a cucumber sandwich and ask me if I'd ever experienced the pleasures of man love.

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    7. The Scottish Green Party reconfirmed their commitment to independence in September, only four months ago, as well as their support for a future referendum. They also crowdfunded research into an independent Scottish currency. To claim otherwise when you have these facts is disingenuous.

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    8. There are a couple of regions where voting green on the list is the totally smart move, Lothian definitely and mid and fife likely. Take Lothian for example let's speculate that snp take every constituency seat and get 40% list...in such a scenario if green get 12% or more they will take 3 (THREE) seats before snp take any on the list. Even if snp take all but 1 seat on the constituency and 40% on the list then if greens get 13.33% or more on the list then they will still take 3 list seats before snp take one. If you can identify areas with a high green list vote like Lothian and mid and fife and a lower snp list vote and one where the non snp pro indy vote on the list won't be split (like it may well be in Glasgow) and where snp will likely win all or all but one constituency seat then green is the smart vote on the list. At the moment that is almost certainly Lothian, probably mid and fife and maybe highlands but need to watch the islands carefully there

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    9. Liz, I'll wait and see about the Green manifesto before commenting further. I hope to see them proposing something radical like ignoring Westminster and finding ways to legislate on non-devolved matters. Drug policy would be a good place for them to start.

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  10. Ah, but this fieldwork was done prior to the tunnocks tea cake protest....

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  11. Why this persistent refusal by greens and rise especially to accept that statistically only way to further independence is snp both votes?

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    1. Because they are both stuck in an alternative reality vortex.

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    2. Because their personal ambition is more important to them than Independence

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    3. Because 1: that's not true
      and 2: The SNP are to the right of most YESers so the Greens fill the gap

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    4. To be fair, they are different parties and I think the Greens are realising there are some issues to push the SNP on. Land reform being the main one.

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  12. all I can say is, thank fcuk for that *Sarcasm Alarm* ..... I nearly sprayed ma beer all over the computer !!!!

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  13. Scottish EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 52% (+1)
    Leave: 27% (-2)

    67% Remain excluding DK.

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    1. Is it just me, or does anyone else want to stay in the EU mainly to protect us from our own government?

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  14. Don't know about other areas, but from what I have heard, there are a lot of ex-Tory Greens in my area and they all voted No in the referendum.

    I am not sure that the Greens are all that pro-Independence as the promo would have us believe.

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    1. Then you need to get out more. Tories are diametrically opposed to Greens in terms of policy and philosophy, which s more than can be said for the business loving environment destroying SNP (in terms of their oil ambitions). I should know, as I've been attending meetings.

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  15. I put these figures into Scotland Votes. It came out as 70 seats for the SNP (up 1) and 8 seats for the Greens (up 6).

    With 65 required for a majority, the SNP are edging dangerously close to relying on the Greens to prop up the next government.

    Aldo

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    1. Great, suits me fine

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    2. The Greens and the SNP are quite divergent both in their approach to Scottish independence and in general. An SNP/Green government would not be smooth sailing. They also might extract unpopular concessions from the SNP (so called 'green' taxes etc)

      Could be your worst nightmare!

      Aldo

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  16. This poll shows Labour with less than Con/Libdem combined.Thats significant.Labour are still the biggest unionist party,but they should no longer be described as the dominant unionist party.The Ruth Party leaflet delivered this week is a clear and overt signal of Tory intentions.Its a "unionists must unite behind street fighter Ruth" pitch.Kind of drawing attention away from the real Tory leader who is an old Etonian and a Bullingdon boy.It shows SNP solid,unionist parties jostling about at the margins.
    I wonder if media attention given to the Lab/Con fight for second might bring a few folk back to Labour.

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  17. Much as I would like to consider voting Green on the list in May 2016, it is just too damn risky this time round. The unionist parties are so rattled now that they would immediately set up an anti-independence alliance government if they got enough seats. The mischief the unionists would then indoubtably get up, to thwart another referendum in future, not to mention the damage they would do to the Scottish economy, is truly terrifying.

    I respect and admire the aspirations of the Greens and RISE, but sorry your time has not yet come. Try fishing for disaffected SNP-hating Labour voters. There are significant numbers of them. Independence supporters need to stay with the SNP. We need to secure another SNP majority in May, with Nicola Sturgeon as FM.

    In May 2016, it has to be SNPx2.

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    1. It isn't risky, the Greens are on 9% so are likely to get an MSP in every region, so there is no chance of you voting Green and your vote being wasted. The SNP need 69 seats to get an overall majority, last GE they got 50% of the vote and 95% of the seats.

      there are 73 FPTP seats in Holyrood, 73/100*95 = 69.35. So unless the SNP drop below 50% on the constituency vote then they are getting an overall maj. just from constituencies.

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    2. With the caveat that the crystal-ball based 'are getting' is a very different thing from reality-based 'may get, based on current polling projections'.

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  18. SNP/SNP. Too risky to do otherwise. Also, it's ironic that the tories seem keen to establish an eternal pro-indy versus anti-indy scene. Why can't they just "move on"?

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    1. Are you 'moving on'? Is this site 'moving on'?

      Aldo

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    2. Looks like the tories won't allow anyone to "move on".

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  19. Am I the only one who's finding national list figures to be rather useless? We really need to get a breakdown by Holyrood region to find out the following: In each region, how well is the SNP doing compared to their likely number of constituency seats, and how close are the various other pro-indy parties to getting at least one seat?

    It could easily be the case that voting Green in Edinburgh and voting RISE in Glasgow are quite rational choices, but that voting for these parties elsewhere is completely pointless, for instance.

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  20. Anyone here who has Scottish independence at heart must vote snp X 2. ANY diminished number of seats at Holyrood or reduction in the vote for the SNP will be used as a hammer to bash independence and people being what they are the waverers will return to clutching mummy's apron. I would like to vote Green like many others - the Greens are NOT, despite what anyone says, totally for independence!

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  21. If things remain as they are up to the start of the official campaign thats fine the SNP have 116000 members to call on what do the unionists have to offer?This has to count for a few percentages when getting the message out there.

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  22. SNP / SNP is the only logical choice for independence supporters.
    Patrick Harvey can't even be trusted on home rule, let alone independence.

    If the SNP needed green votes to call a second referendum it would come with all sorts of conditions. Infrastructure spending at a standstill. We wouldn't be building a new Forth bridge right now if it was up to the greens.

    And having a condition for a separate Scottish currency is a vote loser.
    As much as I would like to see that at some point, it doesn't make for a seamless transition, and hands the No campaign an easy new Project Fear campaign.
    We would lose by a landslide.

    Realistically, the currency issue is something that has to be decided after independence.
    And if we choose to voluntarily give up sterling we lose negotiating power when it comes to the debt. Sterling partly belongs to us and we have contributed to its goodwill value.

    If the SNP needs green support for a referendum, then I think it would be game over for independence.


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  23. Play around with Scotland votes. What happens when you move the Green list votes to the SNP? UKIP get in, that's what happens.

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  24. SNP x2 in May is the only way. Once independent,, yes vote Green or whatever.

    It does not bare thinking about, should the unionists get even close to being at the helm in Scotland. The Greens and rise are still not mature or have clear enough policies, and are not experienced enough at all to manage Scotland's economy. We have to remember that the Scotgov at present have a pretty damn near impossible job in dealing with the situation we are in regards funding. Most of our revenues are taken by London, and they condescend to send a bit back via Barnett, just enough, no more. That just enough is going to shrink, because with wm austerity they do not take kindly to their poor neighbour doing ok and managing things well. Of course much depends on what happens with the joke of the so called 'Scotland bill', very likely a poison chalice.

    The people of england are very resentful towards Scotland for taking their money (!)(while managing things much more successfully than they are at their expense), that is what they see and hear and believe. That is what the establishment tell them and they all, like robots go along with it.

    The unionists are desperate to be rid of the SNP, so let's see what transpires the next few weeks and months. They could try anything.

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  25. The V2 list vote is for the party you want in government. It is the PR part of the system. So, if you want a Green government, vote Green. If you want an SNP one, vote SNP. The V1 constituency is for who you want as your local MP. You might vote tactically here as its FPTP and your party might have no chance or have not even put a candidate forward; common for the smaller pro-indy parties this.

    Anyway, it's that simple.

    I shall be voting SNP in V2 list because I want another SNP government. Locally, I'll be voting for Christine Graham as my constituency MSP.

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    1. This is the actual point of the system.if everyone voted this way, you will have a representative government that is flexible yat keeps good public servants .without media interference, a long term rep would know that people are voting for them personally but want another parties platform. So someone patriotic with a brain would know that you value her but want independence.unfortunately, few of these people exist...just saying...

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  26. the point about examining the individual regions is well made
    eg,
    it has to be snp 1&2 in the borders region, no question, indeed, rise and the greens should announce now the intention to stand no candidates in any constituency in that region and ask their supporters in that region to vote snp 1 & 2. this would go a long way to restoring their reputation with the indy supporters

    fife and mid scot, ne scot, snp1 greens2
    Glasgow snp1 rise/solidarity2

    further analysis in other areas would be helpful

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  27. Independence now got majority support amongst woman but not men? (eh!!?) When did that change? Also, still the over 55 group holding independence back by a good margin. Can't teach an old dog new tricks maybe? Might also be an indication of the power of national service, the BBC and the royals in that are group...

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  28. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 15, 2016 at 7:10 PM

    Better in the Union with your neighbours and British cross breeding that has served us well for over 300 years.Scotland would be a Clan backwater like the everglades if the English had not bailed our ancestor ruling class from bankruptcy. Our do you Nat sis prefer subservience to Merkel and the euro?

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 15, 2016 at 8:06 PM

      The Scottish State was not bailed out but it was the Aristocraticy that received compensation for their private investment in the Darien Scheme. The then English State did all it could to make sure the scheme failed. Look up your history.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 15, 2016 at 8:57 PM

      Come clean and be a man or women even Trans and declare yourself fookin coward. The facts are there are not any real Scots as all left for a better life leaving the Clan system behind

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    3. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 15, 2016 at 11:05 PM

      You don't know your own history.

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 16, 2016 at 9:52 AM

      I learnt all my history from a combination of angry right-wing columnists in the Scottish press, former Labour politicians, and a bunch of patronising celebrities.

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  29. On the topic of England getting its own official national anthem - something I wholeheartedly support (Holyrood can legislate then to give Scotland an official one)...

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/15/introduce-english-national-anthem-land-hope-and-gl/

    Yougov asked Scots about this too.

    60% Supported England having its own national anthem with just 9% opposed (compared to 57% for / 22% against UK-wide). Those 9% will in all probability be, weirdly, people who strongly support Scotland in the UK / are the most British*, which would make them the most 'anti-English'. Scottish independence supporters are of course the most pro-English, supporting the latter having their own identity, culture, parliament, flag etc. :)

    Ties in with e.g. Scots UKIP voters being the most anti-English (Panelbase for the Times).

    ---

    *They don't show such breakdowns (by indy support) obviously, but SNP voters were the most up for an English anthem / the least opposed to it so we can quite safely infer...

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  30. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 15, 2016 at 9:00 PM

    The Queen is the best Universal Anthem.

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    1. Aye, Queen rock. 'I want to break free' is my fav.

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    2. I much prefer "we are the champions".

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