Sunday, October 18, 2015

SNP lead by 32% in the first Scot Goes Pop Poll of Polls for the Holyrood election

There wasn't much point in updating the independence Poll of Polls after last week's YouGov poll, because the numbers hadn't changed at all.  But with just over six months to go until the Holyrood election, the time is now ripe to unveil a Poll of Polls for that contest.  The rules are much the same as for the independence PoP - just one poll from each firm is counted (the most recent one).  Only firms that have reported in the last three months are included in the sample - which means that ICM are missing from the familiar line-up of six.  The active pollsters at the moment are TNS, YouGov, Ipsos-Mori, Panelbase and Survation.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 53.4%
Labour 21.4%
Conservatives 14.2%
Liberal Democrats 6.0%

Regional list ballot :

SNP 47.4%
Labour 21.2%
Conservatives 14.0%
Greens 7.2%
Liberal Democrats 6.0%
UKIP 2.8%

No great surprises there.  The five firms are pretty consistent in their assessment of Labour's standing, but there are sharp disagreements on the fortunes of the SNP, the Tories and the Greens.  For example, the Tories are estimated to be as low as 12% on the constituency ballot by TNS and Ipsos-Mori, whereas YouGov have them as high as 19%.  So Ruth Davidson could be leading her party to a second unmitigated catastrophe in the space of twelve months, or she could be masterminding (ahem) a mini-recovery.  The average is obviously somewhere in between those two extremes, although it's closer to the lower end of the scale.

The SNP's showing on the list ballot is a cause for some mild concern.  For all the talk about how they're doing far better than last time, their average on the list is in fact only 3.4% better than the 2011 result, with a long period of hard campaigning still to go.

Three of the five polls in the sample were conducted before Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader.  That's not as serious a deficiency as it might seem, though, because the evidence so far is that the state of play has barely changed at all since he took over.

25 comments:

  1. Can't complain if that was to be the outcome. I will take 53.4% any election.

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    1. Oh, so would I. The trouble is that the music doesn't stop with six months to go, and slippage is perfectly possible.

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    2. As you've said yourself though, James, there's good reason to believe that there's a universal tendency in the questionnaires that makes (some) people feel that they have to give a different answer to the list question, bumping up the Greens as they are most SNP voters' second preference.

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  2. Never mind that nonsense. JK Plagiarist is having a strop and getting all POuter against the RevStu.

    Apparently calling all yes voters NAZIs is fine. Pointing out she helped prevent Scotland being a real nation isn't. Dozy big nosed cow.

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    1. She doesn't see Scotland as a real nation.
      Just a cultural one. Powerless patriotism only.
      In political terms, she promotes and funds regionhood for Scotland.

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  3. What are the chances somebody will commission separate opinion polls for the list vote in each region to give us a fair idea of what'll happen? There's an enormous difference between the Greens getting 7.2% everywhere and getting 20% in Glasgow and Edinburgh and nothing elsewhere, for instance.

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    1. Many of the polls break down the figures regionally. A picture emerges.

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  4. I think the SNP figures on the list vote is being underestimated because pollsters are still giving people the impression they are being asked for their second preference rather than their second vote.

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  5. Glasgow Working ClassOctober 18, 2015 at 9:46 PM

    Since the demise of the working class and emergence of a Scottish middle class due to ongoing prosperity in the Union it is hardly likely that the middle class would support Corbyn. Most decent people of any class would ignore Corbyn because of his support for terrorist groups.

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    1. So there wasn't a Scottish middle class before you don't have post some nonsense do you not have better things to do than Troll on here. I will give you this you are persistent in your rubbish keep it up the SNP just get stronger and stronger when people like you do the unionists bidding Where in the Scottish polls is the party you support? I suggest you spend more time campaigning for them rather than trolling on here by the looks of it what ever party you do indeed support obviously needs it.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassOctober 19, 2015 at 6:47 PM

      Aye Paul Wilson we have Goebells Fabiani wanting to take over broadcasting and that orchestrated Nuremburg Nat si conference needs paying attention to by democrats. and that wee Nicola the Godess strutting her stuff. She out done Kim Jock Eck.

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    3. I see you didn't answer my points you nut job. I take your a Labour politician which would just about sum up why you post such anti SNP drival we all know who the real and pretend Tories are they come in Blue, Yellow and Red colours.

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  6. James, thanks for this welcome return of a good basis for discussion.

    I reckon these figures are a pretty fair reflection of the situation. My question to you would be about trying to calculate how many seats each party could gain.

    In the constituency vote - i do not expect the SNP to gain all of them - but where, precisely are the other parties likely to win, and how many?

    In the list vote, what is the minimum percentage for the SNP that should see at least one MSP from each list?

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  7. My prediction is SNP will get close to 60% on constituency and around 55% on list. The SNP are great at campaigning and after conference the message is clear:
    Nicola- 'For the first time I am asking the people of Scotland to elect me as First Minister, and give me both your votes'

    Nicola is so popular that message should get the SNP a good majority in May.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassOctober 19, 2015 at 1:47 AM

      So we have Tartan Tories and the British State still intact. So what about all those poor Scots the Nat sis go on about.

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    2. It's irrelevant what theNational Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey go on about.

      Eat your cereal.

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  8. Let me answer that for you, as I am positively bored.
    If James disagrees, no doubt he'll interject.

    Under current polling figures, the SNP are likely to win every seat in Central, Glasgow, Mid Scot & NE.

    In Highlands - Shetland most likely LD, but Orkney much closer.
    In Lothians - Pentlands is the closest fight (with Torys)
    In South - Ayr, Dumfriesshire & Galloway could go Tory. Ettrick almost certainly will.
    In West - Eastwood is a 3 way fight.

    As for the list vote. No idea - subject to far too many variables to guesstimate.

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    1. "- Shetland most likely LD, but Orkney much closer."

      I thought it was the other way around?

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    2. I think it was the Orkney vote that saved Carmichael from getting d7u,ped in the Pentland Firth. Cheerio Tavish!!

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  9. Since YouGov were one of the pollsters most badly burned by the General Election result I wonder if we are seeing the result of adjustments to their methodology intended to boost the Tory figure. Could be misleading in Scotland as from memory they weren't as wrong in Scotland as they were in England.

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  10. Weeps Rowling tears at the state of the Labour Party in Scotland.

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  11. Of course, although the SNP has a mountainous lead over labour, this is a somewhat more nuanced situation than Westminster FPTP. You need 65 or more MSPs out of 129 for a majority. SNP+Green are currently projected to be about low to mid 70s in terms of the number of seats won between them.

    The slightest drop in popularity - the slightest polling error - and we could be looking at a unionist majority. At that point, debates over independence become academic for at least 5 years.

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  12. Glasgow Working ClassOctober 20, 2015 at 9:56 PM

    Paul Wilson, what points! You did ask a question but I decline to answer it as it is none of your business. But you probably forgot your question..

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