You might remember that, a few days before the independence referendum, Betfair produced a picture of David Cameron standing in front of a Union Jack, and declared the No campaign - which a jingoistic Cameron was apparently the living embodiment of - the winner. They even paid out on 'No' bets early. That was an extraordinary thing to do given how close the race was at the time, but they insisted that they were never wrong about these things. Now, you could argue that they were ultimately vindicated (albeit only after an almighty late scare), but then they'd have had a 50/50 chance of being "proved right" about the outcome of a coin toss. Too many stunts of that sort during close contests, and they're bound to eventually come a cropper.
That hasn't happened to Betfair yet (it will), but amusingly it looks like it might be about to happen to Paddy Power. They paid out on a Yes victory in the Greek referendum four days ago, which was a barmy thing to do at a time when some polls were actually showing No in the lead! Today, the betting exchanges have swung very suddenly and dramatically towards No, seemingly on the basis of leaked exit poll results. At the time of writing, No are overwhelming 2/11 favourites on Betfair, and Yes are 4/1. Quite some turnaround, and if there isn't another twist in the tale to come, Paddy Power are going to be left with copious amounts of egg on their faces tonight.
Doubtless our old friend Mr Lovatt will still attempt to claim without any trace of irony that the betting exchanges once again "correctly predicted the outcome". Which is quite true - if at some point or another you predict both outcomes in a two-horse race, you can't really go astray.