I've been wondering for weeks if there might be one poll, just one poll over the course of the campaign that would put the SNP in the outright lead. It was beginning to look very unlikely, but it's happened on the very last day. Obviously we have to be cautious about this, because we've already had poor polling data for the SNP from Survation earlier this evening, and who knows, perhaps there'll be one or two disappointing polls from other firms over the course of the next 24 hours. But I'd much rather go into election day with uncertainty in the air rather than sure knowledge that it's going to be a bad result, and it looks like uncertainty is exactly what we're going to have.
Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Savanta, 28th June - 2nd July 2024):
SNP 34% (-)
Labour 31% (-3)
Conservatives 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
Reform UK 6% (-)
Greens 3% (+1)
Seats projection: SNP 24, Labour 22, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrats 5
The one disappointment here is that the Tory vote does seem to be solidifying just slightly as polling day approaches - there's been evidence of that in the GB-wide polls too. That doesn't matter so much if the SNP really are ahead of Labour, but if other firms are correct and if Labour have a small-to-middling lead, the SNP are going to be fairly reliant for seats on the SNP-Tory battleground areas, mainly in the north-east and the south. In the worst case scenario they might be totally reliant on those areas, as they often used to be prior to the 2015 breakthrough. Even in this poll's seats projection, Professor Curtice once again has the Tories holding their six current seats, which is intuitively hard to accept given that 15% of the vote is less than they had when they were completely wiped out in 1997.
Great poll, and some Labour decline Is noticeable on UK wide polls too
ReplyDeleteI think the margins between victory and defeat (in the Glasgow area) are going to be reminiscent of when Amy Callaghan (SNP) took Jo Swinsons seat (Lib Dem leader at that time) ,
ReplyDeleteHello?
DeleteHello?
DeleteGoodbye, goodbye.
DeleteIs it me you're looking for?
Deleteare you the billy boys?
DeleteI checked back at the 2019 Scotland only polls and the polls on average had the SNP on 42% and the actual result was 45%. This when the polls were almost spot on for the UK wide result so lets hope the SNP vote is being underestimated again by around 3% because that could make a huge difference in so many seats. Interestingly, the same data overestimated the Tory vote by nearly 4% https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls19.html.
ReplyDeleteCont from above. There was a little error in the polls for Scottish voting intention as well. The lead of the SNP over the Conservatives was estimated at 13.7pc but the actual outcome had a lead of 19.9pc, which led to a better result for the SNP even than expected.
ReplyDeleteThe Scottish polls have been a rollercoaster. Some pollsters are going to look less than able after this. Still not long to find out now.
ReplyDeleteI would be Lead Spice because I likevto lead the horse to water but not force it to drink. Get i,?
DeleteHard to see how SNP maintain so many seats with only a 3% lead over Labour but you'd love to see it. Labour only get a few thousand votes in some parts of Scotland whereas most of that 31% is in the central belt.
ReplyDeleteFib dems and Tories holding up.
very strange polling.
Swinney has hit the ground running. His reputation will be intact whatever the outcome.
ReplyDeleteDinae ken if I wis dreamin but I could hae swore that I heard oor Nicola will be a commentator on STV ( , I think it was?) election coverage.
ReplyDeleteThe Sturgeinater will be on ITV election coverage for English viewers. I do not want to see he coupon anywhere anytime.
DeleteI'm sure the feeling is mutual.
DeleteIf Labour win a huge landslide across the UK on 38% of the vote on a very low turnout then it's going to seem a very hollow victory for them. Starmer is hugely unpopular, Labour, even in the best polling, are no where near 50%, they have no clear vision, most of their front bench is a mismatch of unknowns and clowns. One thing voters should demand and that's a change to the voting system. I'm no fan of Reform UK but they could end up with 2 seats with 14% of the vote and Labour 420 with 38%. 62% not voting for Labour yet Labour on course for the biggest landslide in UK history!! Time for change, time to scrap the current voting system.
ReplyDeleteI agree, no other democracy in the world has such a distortion
DeleteExaggeration to say Starmer is "hugely unpopular" IMO.
DeleteR u his mammy?
DeleteWe had a referendum on alternative voting system in 2013.
DeleteFirst past the post won by miles.
11.50
DeleteIt was Alternative Vote, not PR.
I voted against it as well but would have voted for PR.
Labour would rather sit in the political wilderness for a decade and a half than have PR. They crave that moment of power that's all theirs even though England is a Tory country that occasionally ends up with a Labour administration. They will be in power for 5 years and it will be a balls up. I can't wait until election night in 5 years time when Labour will no doubt lose hundreds of seats.
DeleteI have my doubts about these figures, but if they are borne out come Friday morning there will be some very disappointed people on here. I look forward to their contorted explanations. It will be similar to the explanations put forward by them when, after several years of claiming N S had the police and Crown Office in her pocket, they turned up at her door and arrested her. Instead of Alba party , maybe it should be the Ah But Party.
ReplyDeleteMany in Alba (or sympathetic) are SNP voters.
DeleteYou're just as bad as the extremities in the Alba party and further afield.
Only someone from
DeleteWGD could think that an ex FM of Scotland being arrested and interviewed for 8 hours and still under investigation for embezzlement is a good thing because in that persons mind it proves some other people wrong. It is a disgrace that Sturgeon is on a post election tv show.
Ahh the mud spreaders. Isn’t convicted felons on tv from the Tory party. Ms Sturgeon is neither.
DeleteSo the defence of Sturgeon is that the Tories are really bad. Well they are really bad but so is Sturgeon and her husband just on a smaller scale.
DeleteFar too many people willing to accept crooked politicians. Swinney and Yousaf supporting Matheson and WGD blog supporting Matheson as well.
Anon at 9.58. We know what you are. Anon at 10.08. Stop misrepresenting what is said. It’s no different to lying.
Delete"We know what you are". This is the guy with multiple personalities who talks to the voices in his head. Someone should make sure he takes his medication.
DeleteWhat are you on about?
DeleteI sympathise with Alba and will be voting SNP tomorrow.
Yip, that's what I am doing. Confused.
The worst of Alba and the SNP are more similar than they would care for.
How about the scunnered middle who hate what has happened to the SNP in terms of alleged money squandering, over enthusiastic about niche issues, a patronising attitude to independence supporters.
Alba are putting their stall out to attract votes which are never likely to go to the SNP anyway. They have their nutters as well but the party is legitimate.
Anon at 12.32. Well done for coming out on your problems. Try to avoid the internet till you get to a better place. Meantime, if you believe in Scotland vote SNP.
DeleteDid the voices tell you that?
DeleteSlightly O T but Labour are adopting the classic Tory we’re the victims strategy, claiming harassment of labour members just because they support genocide. They’re not even in yet. And this is the party that openly proposed violent brutal suppression of Indy supporters in the style of Spanish military police. Yet still people in Scotland will vote for them or indirectly enable them.
ReplyDeleteAll recent polls , excluding Survation that was just an update with most fieldwork from an earlier poll, have SNP between 3% and 4% UK wide.
ReplyDeleteIs ALBA less than the Greens again?
ReplyDeleteHope Greens who are independent chose to assist the SNP otherwise their vote is wasted for Westminster
ReplyDeleteLast day of campaigning. As somebody btl on the National article says:
ReplyDelete"SNP need to convince the stay-at-home disillusioned Indy vote to get out and vote SNP."
How about spelling out that supposed Constitutional Convention, which would need the SNP to have a majority of MPs for it to support Indy ...
Last Chance Saloon.
Meanwhile in Northern Ireland the BBC shows pictures of former DUP leader Donaldson in court just before the elections.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that while in Scotland they use the judiciary against the SNP, in Northern Ireland they might damage the unionists.
Donaldson is no longer linked in any way to the DUP.
DeleteA Scottish Trump style SNP supporter @11.32am.
DeleteAnon at 11.47. How can you possibly come to that conclusion? Wilful misrepresentation or stupidity? Or maybe both?
DeleteDonaldson is facing 18 extremely serious accusations, Sturgeon hasn't been charged with anything. The two situations are not in any way equivocal.
DeleteWho said ‘ Donaldson and Sturgeon are equivocal ‘ nobody but HandandShrimp putting up his straw man argument.
DeleteTrump Supporters put up with any bad behaviour by
Trump. SNP supporters put up with any bad behaviour by Sturgeon. Now thats a fair comparison.
Anon @ 2:57 PM
DeleteNot to mention that any news story that's critical of the SNP is "fake news" and all legal action against the SNP is just a "conspiracy". There's lots of parallels with Trump supporters.
Nicola is an inspiration, like a cross between Hillary Clinton and Ursula von der Lyin
DeleteI don't think "equivocal" means what anyone on this thread thinks it does.
DeleteApologies, my fault, that should say equivalent
DeleteYeh people go on about Alba being vote splitters. But Alba are not even registering. The Greens on 3% could easily give seats to unionists. So if if is tight in some seats , the infantile Greens are responsible.
ReplyDeleteThe reason is that the Greens are fake independence supporters like the SNP. Alba is also full of ex SNP members who saw the truth about them and left to join a party that actually wants to win independence instead of a party that just wants to win elections. Also the party is led by Salmond who called out Sturgeon for what she is. That is why Alba is hated more than the Greens - the vote splitting stuff by SNP supporters is just nonsense. Always has been.
DeleteWhenever I've pointed that out SNP supporters just say: The Greens focus on other areas as well.
DeleteLike that somehow makes it okay for them to take more votes away from the SNP under a FPTP system where they have no chance of winning a single seat. It's just Alba who are the villains!
Remarks from my SNP candidate Grant Costello:
ReplyDeleteThe big issues for voters at this election, says Costello, are the cost of living crisis and “worries over privatisation” in the NHS.
What about independence, I ask, are voters expecting independence or indyref2 negotiations to begin this year if the SNP win the majority of Scottish seats?
“I don’t think most people are, that the honest truth,” says Costello (below).
“But as John [Swinney] said at the manifesto launch, it’s about reinvigorating, reinforcing that mandate that we won in 2021.”
---
I'm not sure about anyone else but I don't find just reinforcing the 2021 mandate that inspiring tbh.
Whitever the result o this election, we Indy supporters need to take stock. These last 10 years have been an eye opener. I never believed that unionists were going to get so nasty , so disingenuous . Perhaps , for start , we've been too welcoming to the militant britnats that denigrate oor culture , languages and all things Scottish.
ReplyDeleteWhat really should have happened was that Alba called for a Constitutional Convention following the last Scottish Parliament election.
DeleteThere needs to be an acceptance that there's a large gap between support for the SNP and support for independence itself. The only way we can move forward is for SNP supporters to stop demanding that everyone else just shuts up and backs the SNP and face the reality that this is not going to happen.
All parts of the independence movement need to actually get into a room together and form a strategy. That's the only way we can move forward, and it will require the SNP to communicate with other parts of the wider movement and drop the arrogant assumption that they own it.
A non partisan group can maximise the yes vote.
DeleteSnp should have seen their inevitable unpopularity coming and planned this in advance.
Some just thought they had jobs for life, that Scots apathy meant waiting longer or some position in between.
Scots will push independence again but snp should have planned better.
I'm not sorry to burst your bubble here, but Alba is not on anybody on this planet's radar as a political party, it's barely a Scout group rag tag bunch of nasties or the misguided gullible that have been cajoled by an egotist, Scotland's version of Farage, to follow the path of idiocy for his benefit
DeleteEngland decides what happens in Scotland and they've never heard of an Alba, they only know Salmond the toxic nut job
Anon @1:30 PM
DeleteHow do you suggest the Yes movement moves forward (in particular if the SNP suffers an electoral defeat on Thursday)?
How do you address the large disconnect in the polls between support for independence and support for the SNP?
What needs to happen next?
“Salmond the toxic nut job” sounds like something a real nut job called Dr Jim from the SNP propaganda site WGD would post. I claim my fiver anon at 1.30 you are the raving lunatic Dr Jim.
DeleteRegardless of the outcome tomorrow I think that both Alba and the SNP really need to open communications with one another - and I say that as an SNP loyalist. The only people who gain through the current, "We're better independence supporters than you - Naw yer no" argie-bargie are the yoons. The reconvening of the Scottish Constitutional Convention would be a very good starting point.. it is actually SNP policy - passed at the 2023 Conference - to do this. Let's get it moving.
DeleteIt's not like Alba would turn down a Constitutional Convention either, they've been calling for one since March 2021 & have reiterated the call multiple times since.
DeleteI think the quick election caught many napping including ALBA
ReplyDeleteNaebody's pretending it's easy but some sort of constitutional convention, a formal yes group that could take the lead and put pressure on SNP , Alba and others. We need to put the Salmond / Sturgeon era behind us.
ReplyDeleteFor a start the message that an independent Scotland would not just be about the SNP or any one political party needs to be pushed.
How that message could be promulgated with our overwhelming Britnat media I dinnae ken.
Saor Alba
Well said 2.09
DeleteThat's literally what Alba has been calling for since day one of their existence but SNP supporters just seen their calls for a Constitutional Convention as: "Salmond wants to be back in charge telling us all what to do".
DeleteGB new poll showing SNP on 4% UK wide.
ReplyDeleteVoice in the wilderness it appears. No one is listening apart from self interested individuals such as Regan. Helps bells, by Friday she may be the most senior ALBA person of 1/1!
ReplyDeleteI would really like to see the SNP get a majority 29 or more MPs as once again everyone would see the SNP doing nothing with their mandate. The only difference this time is it will be Sturgeons deputy Swinney doing nothing. Will these SNP people finally wake up - no chance. They are like Trump supporters, oblivious to reality. The political wing of the independence movement is stuck in a rut due to these SNP (Trump like )supporters.
ReplyDeleteSwinney goes to a pride March instead of to Bannockburn. A real independence leader - 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.
ReplyDeleteRobert the Bruce would never believe that this is the sort of person to take back our independence from England. Hard to imagine the Bruce saying to Edward 1 or 2 gonna gie us a sec 30 pretty please.
You’ll never take OUR PRONOUNS!
DeleteWow. You are very witty.
DeleteAnon at 4.03. You look backwards while those of us wanting independence look forward and engage with those most likely
Deleteto vote Indy. Wheeching your kilt and waving your claymore doesn’t work. Grow up.
You got to laugh Alba a party that can't poll more than 2% and have never had anyone not even a local authority councillor elected ,demanding the SNP work with them .
ReplyDeleteSee when Alba start polling in double figures and start getting people elected they can start asking to be treated with respect.
Whilst Alex Salmond is leader no one will take Alba seriously
I think respect costs nothing.
DeleteAlba /Wings/Bella Caledonia/whichever other fiery dissenter.. have a small audience but impact the grassroots.
Bickering and insulting each other caused harm to the Scottish cause. Forever thus.
Anon 3.54 . As an SNP member I can only despair of your comments. To compare any SNP member with Trump supporters is , frankly , pathetic and stupid .
ReplyDeleteThe SNP leadership has been lacking. They have been divided . Maybe some have been guilty of control freakery or worse? The membership consists of loyalists ( too loyal maybe ) and folk who really want to push the leaders into action.
Post 2015 they , the leadership, thought a referendum would happen it did not . That division continued as to how to advance. Some SNP politicians are feart , loss of a second referendum would put independence further doon the road. Some are too cosy in WM. Some are merely gradualists. Too gradual for my liking! Politicians respond to pressure from members and the public.
There are many SNP MPs/ MSPs that are decent Indy supporters.
Negative crap from the likes of you does not get us anywhere - if you really do support an independent Scotland?
Saor Alba
But how often do some SNP supporters not even read a news story and dismiss it out of hands purely because they class it as coming from a "unionist rag". Even if other sources report on the same story it doesn't matter, it's the same was of thinking as Trump supporters with CNN etc: It's all "fake news".
DeleteSimilarly the legal troubles Trump has been facing in the US is seen as a conspiracy orchestrated by his enemies to prevent him from becoming President again. It's the same way of thinking as some SNP supporters dismissing the legal troubles the SNP are facing as a British establishment conspiracy to prevent independence.
You couldn't hold a referendum without the support of the local authorities.Its local authorities who compile the voters roll ,it mostly local authority premises that are used as polling places and it's local authority staff who manage the the polling places and do the count.
DeleteIf a referendum was not sanctioned by Westminster Unionist controlled councils would boycott a referendum organised solely by the SG
Anon 4.37
DeleteSNP supporters are all types- some are too busy too think , some are not too bright , some are clever but biased . Some are savvy .Same as any political party membership .
However , to compare the sort of distorted world view and tendency to believe in conspiracy of Trump supporters to SNP members is frankly absurd.
I will also remind you that we simply do not know the role of Sturgeon and husband in possible misdemeanors. The latter has been charged but is innocent until proved otherwise.
I don't know if the British state has been involved in undermining our independence movement. However it remains a possibility. The Brits have a long history of this in their colonies!
Saor Alba
This poll is slightly better than recent ones, though Savanta appear outliers.
ReplyDeleteAlso, disappointing to once again see combined unionist support north of60% and of course it would be very hard to take if the tories held all 6 of their Scottish seats.
Difficult to be optimistic at this time ☹️
Anon 4.07. Its that kind of arrogance that made me leave the SNP. Alba carry wide support amongs disenfranchised independence voters. Ones like me who were 30 year members, and left because of it. Believe it or not, we actually matter, and we know a thing or two.
ReplyDeleteI was in the SNP when they had just 4 mps, and were polling 14%. All parties started small. Surely all independence supporters should work for the common good.
The indy movement is like a fine garden, and the SNP the japanese knotweed holding it all together.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 4.50pm - I've been an SNP member for 40 years. I stuck with the SNP as it is the only political party that anyone regards as being able to lead Scotland to independence. We've got to cut out this 'we're better independence supporters than you' from both Alba and the SNP. We need unity.
ReplyDeleteTha mi a'dol leat . I agree with you.
DeleteSaor Alba
Also works both ways, we need to cut out the: You need to back the SNP otherwise you're helping the unionists.
DeleteThere's an overwhelming sense of entitlement that the SNP somehow owns all of our votes, we're not allowed to be critical of the SNP or their plans & if we say we're considering not voting for the SNP there's a guilt trip that if the SNP losses we're killing independence... that shit pisses people off.
Absolutely, 5:28.
Delete“We can all agree” doesn’t equal “wheesht for Indy, haud yer nose and vote SNP.”
For what it’s worth, even my old man didn’t vote for them this time. He’s been an SNP voter since 1974. And no, he’s never heard of Wings. He’s pissed off Nicola and Scotgov for getting nothing done for years now.
That's what annoys me.
DeleteWhen a lot of people say: We all need to unite. What they really mean is: We all need to unite... behind the SNP.
I don't want to speak for that Anon but others who post similar things when they talk about unity it isn't genuine corporation between pro-indy parties/organisations, they just want everyone to unify behind the SNP.
Anon 5.28 an 5.33.
DeleteReally ? You miss the point. Or again , it's possible that you're britnats undermining the SNP vote.
No the SNP can't just assume , they don't own your vote. But :
at the end of the day , what's better, lukewarm indy MPs that at least will be a different pro Scottish vote in HC , or Britnat " Scottish " Labour MPs?
Time to vote to send a message to the SNP is in HR 2026. It's so obvious that we really do think that you are probably disingenuous Tory / Labour Britnats. Or are you a few once short of a shilling?
Saor Alba
So "we need unity" means: Your only option is to vote SNP otherwise you're helping the union?
DeleteOne thing is absolutely certain, if you vote for a Unionist party you aren't doing much to help. If one is a Green or Alba supporter and have a candidate then obviously the inclination is to vote for your favored party. I don't have an issue with that.
DeleteAnon5:24 "We think"! What is it with you lot referring to yourselves in the plural? Do you have to be schizophrenic in the SNP these days? Stick to posting how much you agree with yourself - it's slightly less mad.
DeleteShould be Anon @5:45
DeleteActually punched the air when I seen this poll. Think this poll shows what I have been saying for months that the snp will win the election in Scotland comfortably. Feel vindicated by my prediction now.
ReplyDeleteYou've been punching the air for weeks now but you never mention how you started out saying that the SNP would actually GAIN seats.
DeleteStalker
DeleteDon't like to be reminded do you😁
Delete