Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (YouGov, 3rd-7th June 2024):
Labour 34% (-5)
SNP 30% (+1)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Reform UK 7% (+3)
Greens 6% (-1)
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 47% (+2)
No 53% (-2)
Incidentally, I was asked last night whether there was a poll showing Alba on 5% of the Holyrood list vote. That was easy because I had already blogged about it - it was the Norstat poll that also showed Alba on 2% of the Westminster vote, down one point on the previous poll. But this gives me an opportunity to make an important point which I think is too easily overlooked. Norstat is the successor to Panelbase, and appears to use exactly the same methodology. In the 2021 Holyrood election campaign, Panelbase was more favourable to Alba than any other polling firm, and often showed them as high as 6% on the list. Because Norstat weight their results by Westminster recalled vote and not by Holyrood recalled vote, it seems very unlikely that whatever the methodological error was in 2021 has been corrected. That means when they show Alba on 5%, it may imply that Alba are actually on roughly the same level of support as in 2021, ie. around 2%, which is not enough to win seats.
Don't shoot the messenger here, but when I was on the Alba NEC in 2021-22, I repeatedly made the point that the worst thing the party could do was squint at polls and local election results and try to convince itself that it was already on course to win list seats when it quite plainly wasn't. Only with a proper sense of realism about the task before us will we have any chance of breaking through in 2026.
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The point about analysing local election results was to get a baseline so Alba would know if they are making any progress.
ReplyDeleteI analysed 111 preference profiles from the seats Alba stood in.
This was a huge amount of work. It was to determine how favourable SNP 1 voters were to Alba the answer in May 2022 was not very
I gave that presentation to National
Council in August 22.
I then analysed the by-election results as they happened.
I gave a presentation to the NEC in July 23 and to national council August 23.
I was able to show that SNP 1 voters were becoming far more favourable to Alba.
And that Alba were making good progress vis-a-vis the Greens.
It was not saying everyone that gave Alba a high rank would necessary give Alba their list vote but that the pool of voters who might was growing.
Just to add a great deal of valuable information is published at council by-elections it really is worth analysing
DeleteEvery single ballot paper rankings - you can if you want recreate the result.
Ballot box files which are first preferences by polling district which helps know where the Indy vote is.
I remember your first presentation to the NEC in 2022 and what the reaction was from other NEC members. Without breaching confidentiality rules, let's just say it was around about that time that I became very concerned that the leadership had genuinely convinced itself that the local elections showed some kind of major advance for Alba, which they didn't, and that Alba were already on course for list seats, which they weren't. (And when I say "the leadership", I don't mean national office bearers or ordinary NEC members, ie. I'm not blaming you for this, I'm talking about the literal leadership.)
DeleteThanks. That’s my recollection as well
DeleteI can't be the only one that punched the air when they seen this poll. The gap is closing by the day. SNP whitewash incoming.
ReplyDeleteThat comment actually reassures me, because it confirms that you're probably a parody account. There have been times during the last few weeks when I started to wonder if you actually meant it.
DeleteI bet he does. 😉
DeleteIt’s Ross posting as Declan.
DeleteI'll bet it is. He's nuts.
DeleteApparently, Swinney launches the SNP general election manifesto tomorrow and a pledge to put independence on "page one, line one" of the document.
ReplyDeleteIf that doesn't happen it's game over and the SNP can pack their bags and boogey off back to the hinterlands - 3 seats max. If it does happen with the usual waffle in the rest of the manifesto, maybe somewhere between 15 and 30 seats.
But what if they have the guts to have that on page 1 line 1 - and absolutely nothing else? Or make the whole thing about Indy Indy Indy? Could they make it a clean sweep as, gobsmacked, the YES movement actually loses our apathy and sense of betrayal, and votes SNP?
I'd vote waffle.
DeleteMeaningless rhetoric about how only by voting SNP can we apply the democratic pressure on Westminster and it'll be up to Keir Starmer to respect the wishes of the people of Scotland etc.
Basically the same shit we've heard before.
How would you like a waffle dusted with icing sugar?
DeleteThat's zbiut it. Yeah.
A one line Manifesto with the word Indy will resonate with existing Indy supporters. Unless you have some plan to neutralise the BBC and MSM, how do you think it’s going to be portrayed by the media and come across to undecideds and no voters and those disillusioned with the recent period of poor SNP governance? Such simplistic proposals are useless in the real world.
DeleteSame Anon as 10:48PM
DeleteLooks like I was right.
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At this election we are asking you to vote SNP for an independent Scotland. If the SNP wins a majority of Scottish seats, the Scottish Government will be empowered to begin immediate negotiations with the UK Government to give democratic effect to Scotland becoming an independent country.
It is through the power of democratic pressure that we will secure the right of people in Scotland to decide their future. ***
Who actually believes the "democratic pressure" nonsense?
An awful lot of people believe it judging by some of the posters you get on here. The SNP really has them brainwashed.
Delete“Support for independence SOARS to 47%”
ReplyDeleteYet we’ve been led to believe independence was the settled will!