I missed this Savanta poll yesterday, which (albeit narrowly) breaks the run of seven successive polls with a pro-independence majority.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta / The Scotsman, 16th-21st December 2022)
Yes 49% (-)
No 51% (-)
The reaction to this poll in unionist quarters is to suggest that a transitory Yes surge is now easing off due to memories of the Supreme Court ruling fading, and that we can now go back to sleep because it's business as usual and nothing has actually changed. And they may yet turn out to have a point, but it's far, far too premature to say that just now, for one obvious reason - the margin of error. If the true Yes vote is in the low 50s, as Panelbase and Redfield & Wilton recently suggested, you'd expect an occasional poll like this with Yes in the high 40s due to a slight underestimate. It'll only become clear that the Yes surge has genuinely eased off if we get at least two or three polls in a row with a small No lead.
I'm also a bit sceptical about Savanta's independence polls given the extraordinary events of early 2021. First, there was the #Matchettgate fake poll scandal, when Savanta effectively disowned (albeit using diplomatic language) bogus independence numbers published in their name by their client Scotland on Sunday. Then Savanta retrospectively changed the results of their previous independence polls due to a counting error being pointed out to them - and in the blink of an eye they had changed from being one of the most Yes-friendly firms to being one of the most No-friendly. It's not exactly a track record that inspires total confidence.
Also bear in mind the fact that Ipsos polls, and Ipsos telephone polls in particular, persistently show better results for Yes than other firms - meaning that when a firm like Savanta reports a slim No lead, it's fairly likely that an Ipsos poll conducted at the same time would produce a Yes lead. It's easy to lose track of the importance of that fact, given that Ipsos polls are obviously much rarer than non-Ipsos polls, but it's perfectly conceivable that Ipsos are getting it right and others are getting it wrong for two key reasons - a) only Ipsos use telephone fieldwork, and b) Ipsos are virtually the only firm to refrain from weighting by recalled 2014 indyref vote. The other firms' adherence to 2014 weighting is a very dubious practice after eight-and-a-bit long years.
Six polls with Yes lead: IGNORE.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 22, 2022
One poll with No lead: TOTAL VINDICATION.
AND YOU'RE NOT GETTING TO VOTE ANYWAY. What do you think this is - some kind of DEMOCRACY?
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Hi James. I agree with your points about the objectivity of Savanta. Last year they underestimated SNP constituency vote by a whopping 6% in their final poll. Did this one poll 16/17 year olds?
ReplyDeleteSavanta also underestimated the SNP's regional vote by 6% in that final poll.
DeleteCoincidentally, their latest Holyrood numbers appear to be 6% behind YouGov and Ipsos' latest constituency results. The gap is even wider on the list, 8 and 11% respectively. Savanta don't seem to have corrected their house effect since it became evident in 2021. Tsk tsk.
Watch the YES lead harden by May following the Eat-or-Heat winter and the energy bills bite.
ReplyDeleteI think independence support is sitting at 53% at this stage.
ReplyDeleteThat horror show at Holyrood re GRR will not do the yes vote any good at all. Absolutely appalling stuff.
ReplyDeleteWhat does that have to do with independence? With independence you could vote SNP out. Without independence itll be the SNP in perpetuity.
DeleteIndependence is the most important thing, but I'm not quite sure I'm seeing your logic there. The SNP can be voted out with either independence or devolution.
DeleteAnonymous - "What does that have to do with independence?" - really - I'll spell it out for you - my wife who supports independence said what a policy - if you want to retain women's rights and safe spaces you are left with voting Tory or Alba. As much as I hate to admit it, as James is always reminding us, a downturn in the SNP vote will always be seen as a decrease in support for independence. Even worse, if a UKGE de facto Referendum takes place and all the eggs are in the votes for SNP basket for independence then some people will not vote SNP because of this policy.
DeleteNow some may say the numbers who would not vote SNP due to GRR are small - the truth is nobody knows for sure - so I say why take the risk if the priority is independence. If the polls are saying 75% yes then it's possibly not much of a risk but they are not are they. These matters prove that to Sturgeon independence is not top priority. Who knows if she gives it any priority at all.
Putting aside GRR, I have a growing fear that the SNP are stringing us along.....vote for us one more time and will get you indy. Their lack of action, their passivity, looks increasingly suspect to me. I would like the SNP to offer me some positive reasons to vote for them and I'm not getting any.
DeleteI think our politics has been hollowed out by a decade of indy debate. Westminister suffers from the two party FPTP system but Scotland has the same dynamic with indy/unionist. The unionists are of shockingly low quality and so the SNP get away with mediocrity and sometimes less. To me they look tired, complacent, out of ideas and have been in power too long.
When yes get a lead there is a flurry [panic] of polls and if you take enough polls you will more likely than not ? get a contradiction.
ReplyDeleteIf Sturgeon, Harvie and Slater were serious about Scottish independence they would be up all night in the Scottish Parliament debating and highlighting why Scotland has the highest energy bills in Europe and probably the world despite having massive energy resources. Instead we get this horror show about people wanting to change their sex and birth certificate by just saying so.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile WGD numpty Eilidh says GRR is:- "a bill that intends to give slightly improved rights to a vulnerable group...." a classic example of a WGD numpty who just goes along with anything Sturgeon says. Eilidh claims she is a feminist. What a horror show.
Not sure if Gary Glitter is still alive but if he is I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up in Scotland dressed as as a woman.
A reality check at this stage is timely. Some people get so carried away by one or two decent opinion poll results. Never forget they are just small samples. The underlying trend does show continued increase in support for independence, but it's a shallow slope. A long upward slog gets us there in the end, but it takes a long time. Steady but painfully slow. Likely to stay that way until the next big event (whatever that may be).
ReplyDeleteI completely disagree with almost all of that. The recent increase for Yes was real, it was substantial, and above all else it was *quick*. It was not some sort of meaningless statistical blip along the path of a snail's pace underlying trend - and nor was the dramatic increase in Yes support over the course of the 2014 campaign. Lesson: you don't win independence by passively sitting back and trusting in an "underlying trend" that doesn't actually exist. You win independence by taking decisive action and changing the political weather.
DeleteIRISH SKIER ASSURES EVERYONE THAT DUBLIN PUB LOOS ARE SAFE
ReplyDeleteHas the Irish Skier been lying again or has he really been touring all the loos in Dublin Pubs and hanging around them for weeks and then declaring them safe. Did he attach a notice on each door saying Irush Skier was here and I declare this loo safe? Did he self ID as Mrs Irish Skier so he could hang around the ladies loos?
This is what WGD numpty Skier posts re the pub loos in Dublin: -
" They can safely visit a Dublin pub loo nearly 8 years on without fear of being accosted."
These numpties really post some pish. We can add being an expert on Dublin pub loos to Skier's long list of areas of expertise. My money is on Skier lying again but hey maybe he just likes hanging around loos as he has previously declared himself an expert on unisex toilets.
If Alister (Union) Jack or any other UK Tories decide to remove the Scottish GRR how long will it be before WGD numpties say causing all this turmoil in Scotland was all part of Sturgeons secret master plan to get it removed by the UK to show that the Tories are bad and therefore more people will vote for independence. Only Sturgeon nicophants would propose this type of pish and only numpties would believe it. Sadly if the UK kick the GRR into the bin of waste of time Sturgeon obsessions then numpties will assuredly punt this pish as evidence of Sturgeons secret masterplan to get Scottish independence.
ReplyDeleteIs this real?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.albaparty.org/breakthrough_poll_would_result_in_alba_party_winning_over_20_seats