One common theme of the negative comments was that instead of urging people to pile on the pressure for an independence referendum to actually be held, I should instead be encouraging them to "prepare for the referendum". It's difficult to know whether to laugh or cry at that sort of comment. Nobody could accuse me of not assuming good faith on the part of the SNP leadership for many, many, many years. When Nicola Sturgeon "called an independence referendum" in 2017, I took that at face value and I encouraged people to donate to the "ring-fenced referendum campaign fund". That referendum, let me gently remind people, never took place. After well over four years, I think we're entitled to say that definitively. It was a fantasy, a mirage, a work of fiction. The money in the ring-fenced fund was cynically spent on other things. This time around, I have no intention of wasting my life "preparing" for a vote that is not being held, or of deceiving other people into doing so. Having breached the faith of their members and voters once, the onus is now on the SNP leadership to prove that they are not pulling the same trick twice - and brazenly briefing the Sunday Times that there won't be a referendum this side of the 2024 general election is, to put it mildly, not the way to do that.
Incidentally, my trust in the SNP leadership did not even end in the summer of 2017 when they broke their word that a majority of Scottish seats in that year's general election would constitute a "triple lock" mandate for the referendum they had already "called" (they won 35 out of 59 seats - that's roughly 60%). You can check the archives of this blog if you don't believe me - I spent the first couple of weeks after the election urging the SNP leadership not to backtrack (I remember being interviewed in the Financial Times about that), but as soon as Nicola Sturgeon made her statement about deferring, not cancelling, the referendum until the end of the Brexit process, I took her at her word and urged people to unite behind the strategy. I continued to urge trust and patience when the timetable slipped well beyond Brexit day, and then when coronavirus struck I naturally accepted that a referendum couldn't be held in the middle of the biggest international crisis since the Second World War. But Brexit is the casus belli for an independence referendum, and Brexit occurred eighteen months ago. If the pandemic is the genuine and only reason for the further delay in holding the vote, it's logical to expect that there will be a referendum as soon as practically possible after the crisis eases. Although it's not possible to pinpoint exactly when that moment will arrive, it's likely to be some time next year. At the very latest, the year after. When we instead hear that a referendum is unlikely to be held until after the 2024 election, any reasonable person has little choice but to conclude that this is a leadership that is completely taking the mick, and that the priority for the Yes movement has to be to do something about that. As I pointed out in my previous post, a referendum 'delayed' beyond the UK general election is unlikely to take place at all, because any SNP seat losses at that election will once again be used as an excuse for shelving the whole idea, just as it was in 2017.
But even if there's a genuine intention to hold a referendum in 2025 or whenever, the reality is that will be five years after Brexit, which makes a mockery of the idea that we're holding the vote because it's intolerable for Scotland to have been dragged out of the European Union against its will. It must be fairly tolerable if we're content to live that way for five long years. Essentially we're chucking the material change of circumstances out of the window, in which case we might just as well go back to waiting for the fabled "generation" to pass. I'm beginning to suspect that was the idea all along. The people I feel sorriest for are the EU citizens who were persuaded to stay in Scotland on a bogus promise from the SNP leadership that the Scottish vote for Remain would be upheld.
I want my faith in the SNP leadership to be restored. Until very recently, I had a reputation as a leadership loyalist and I would be delighted to become one again. But enough is enough. No more words, it's time for action. We need two things: the date for the referendum needs to be set, and that date needs to be before 31st December 2023.
From my perspective, there can be no further compromise. We've waited far, far, far too long already.
It's long past time for a referendum. I don't know why we should consider it acceptable to wait until 2023 - something else will no doubt occur in the interim to provide the SNP with an excuse for further delay and prevarication.
ReplyDeleteThe other point is, even if a referendum is proposed, what would be the terms and conditions of holding one? What would be the definition of the franchise? What would be the questions. And who would regulate/officiate the campaign and the count?
If the answer to any of the questions posed above involves the word "British" i.e. government, electoral commission and the like the resulting referendum will necessarily be gerrymandered from the start. That is always the upshot of British 'fair play'.
In that event I, for one, will not legitimise the exercise by participating in it.
Gove and Johnson have made it abundantly clear that there will not be one. And Sturgeon has refused to do anything without their permission. So all she will ever do is to continue to cavil about them, as if it gives her the moral high ground, safe in the knowledge that she won't have to actually have one. She is very comfortable with that, because it gives her the perpetual excuse that she is being blocked from having one. And of course, as they have done for years, continue to hold up Westminster as the villains of the piece and her as the hero, without actually having to do anything (other of course than obsess about her social agenda changes). It's all a very convenient posture, which also brushes under the carpet the poor performance of her administration in the areas where they have some power. It's a piece of theatre, designed to perpetuate her power, with next to no accountability.
ReplyDeleteWell said Ian. I would only add that in addition to fussing over the obsessions that Sturgeon and her government have they procrastinate over reform that they actually could be implementing. Such as serious land reform, land taxation, CT reform, the death of the Gaelic language on their watch and so on. I would have thought that radical reform, well implemented would give folk a taste of what a future Scotland could be like and would therefore be one of the best recruiters for indy. This seems so obvious that I really wonder about the SNP Government's motives. Could it be they are content to muddle along in non-radical fashion, happy with polls in the 45%-50% area, knowing that will perpetuate the status quo and their grip on the pretendy parliament?
DeleteCompletely agree AB, about the issues they could demonstrate their supposed credentials on. Particularly desperately needed land reform which they used to promise. But they have become a middle of the road, don't rock the boat, neoliberal party who fear upsetting anybody, especially the wealthy. They make a very good advert against independence, because what on earth would change under them - who presumptuously assume they will remain in power. They have no vision, no radical change to offer, which would be the only point of independence.
DeleteLand and land tax reform could be a serious change that in itself could make us feel more independent.
DeleteIt's slightly worse than that. By referring always to 'the Tories' it makes it a political issue; one political party against another. What she and the SNP should be pointing to at every opportunity is the Union. For it is the Union that is the issue, not 'the Tories'. They're just the temporary keepers of the Union.
DeleteWe need to shift the narrative from 'the Tories' to 'the Union', from which the question, 'how do we break the Union to restore our independence?' naturally follows
Good and timely posts. I hope the SNP leadership sit up and take notice, but I am not convinced they will. I can see them continuing to try kick this into the long grass and I think it will be 2025 now before anything meaningful happens. At that point there will be a new Tory government installed in Westminster and the devolved parliaments will have had their powers vastly reduced. The SNP leadership, who are supposed to be also leading the independence movement, have not done any of the required preparatory work for a referendum other than the frankly laughable Sustainable Growth Commission which is neither sustainable nor offers growth in any meaningful way. Sadly I think the SNP has missed all of their peak support opportunities, and seems to be completely out of touch with the grassroots independence movement, which is showing increasing signs of fracturing. They seem to lack the bravery needed to tackle the big issues such as currency. Yes, that's big and scary, but it can't be avoided, and it is key to convincing a lot of people that independence will work out ok. They have completely dodged land reform and council tax reform while wasting time tinkering with much less urgent legislation. I have always been of the 'let's keep the heid' approach but am getting just a wee bit scunnered at this point to be honest, and I suspect I am not the only one.
ReplyDelete"Keep the heid" ought to be banned from the political lexicon. What it really means is "stop thinking and shut up".
DeleteGood and balanced post, that fully matches my opinion on SNP attitude towards Indyref2.
ReplyDeleteThanks for being sorry for a EU citizen who decided to stay after Brexit hoping for Scotland to become an independent country ;)
This goes well beyond Wings. I can name several blogs, all of them passionate believers in independence, who have abandoned support for the SNP under the current leadership. To be specific, Grousebeater, Yours for Scotland, Angry Weegie, Grumpy Scottish Man, Craig Murray, Barrhead Boy. Something has gone wrong with the drive for independence if so many erstwhile SNPers are losing faith. It is for the party faithful to convince the disillusioned to return to the fold - shouting abuse on social media isn't the answer.
ReplyDeleteTHE SNP leadership is an incestuous nest of gutless chilblains - you won't see them become bold ever - can you remember a single courageous act since Tricky Nicky assumed power? So, faith will not be restored.
ReplyDeleteAS far as apologising to SC - fk that - he's thrown in the towel, you haven't. THE thing is to not stop or give up - that's the difference between failing and eventual winning.
Youve always been consistent and explained any change of thinking youve had. Ive always fallen somewhere right in between you and wings. You kept faith with them well longer than I did, but you coming round gives me hope that there might be a wave of it coming that might just shake them out of their plush comfort. They've been in charge too long, plenty of people will of built their entire careers around the guaranteed decade or 2 of power the snp have had. Unfortunately I think the leaderships drowning in career politicians now, and I think the snps day needs to be done as soon as. Yes can function as a coalition, the snp arent essential
ReplyDeleteSeven years, or two terms, seems to be the natural shelf life of any politician or leader. The US was very wise in limiting a president to two terms. By that metric Sturgeon's time is up and it feels that way. She has had ample opportunity to do something, but it is the same old excuses and denials. People have run out of patience. Imagine the difference with a young visionary leader who would be prepared to stand up to WM and ruffle some feathers as well as articulating a positive, optimistic independence, with fleshed out, detailed arguments and evidence.
ReplyDeleteSNP has lost my vote. If they arent an Indy supporting Party then they are nothing to me. They are dead to me. Lead by a traitor in Sturgeon. Gutless members wont remove her or the cabal that has hijacked the SNP.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP really ARE essential if there's going to be a referendum next year. And yes - you can vote SNP and think NS should either go now or start making the legal groundwork for the referendum in 2022. The more dissent there is within SNP itself the likelier the prospect of the referendum. The window of opportunity's closing - all countries that became independent in Europe did that during some sort of upheaval. Brexit is/was the perfect opportunity. I think the biggest mistake was not going with a referendum during the May tenure. But - however you put it now - there won't be a referendum during the next 4 years without the SNP.
ReplyDeleteShort and sharp. Indy ref should be held ASAP when we are out of immediate covid danger so we can start the rebuild of Scotland away from Westminster corruption. That’s this year 2021 or very very early 2022. Waiting for end if 2023 is too far off and would just droll on forever until snp finally loses to some red or blue Tory lot.
ReplyDeleteI have lost faith in the SNP leadership delivering independence. We have to get behind Now Scotland and actually pressure them from the streets.
ReplyDeleteIf a country gets 3.5% of the population onto the streets at demonstrations, that's when they win. We need to frighten those servile MSPS into believing they are going to lose their cushy jobs if they DON'T deliver independence.
Sturgeon has turned a Section 30 from an enabling device into a roadblock on independence. She has handed a veto to Johnson. The people of Scotland are sovereign - if she doesn't believe that, what is she doing leading the SNP?
I'm a member of many years: I've campaigned, canvassed in all weathers over that time. Now, with the independence receding ever further into an unspecified date many years hence, I've totally lost faith. I shall be voting Alba in future in any election they stand. Mrs Murrell, you can't keep putting off a referendum until you have cast iron proof that you're going to win, it's about pulling out the stops to persuade the persuadable, the not sures and if the referendum lost, so be it.
ReplyDeleteI honestly think it's already too late. Looking at how the SNP has behaved since 2017 - especially in relation to stitch ups, division and hounding and bullying their own best people - it's hard not to conclude they have been working hand in glove with both the media and WM to make sure Scotland didn't take advantage of Brexit but the UK came through it as "one nation". Then, again working together, they had to make sure the SNP won in May with no other pro indy parties (the sheer vitriol against Alba, ISP etc and the perfectly well considered and understood idea of a list only indy party was genuinely eye opening) in any kind of positions of power. Now they have that, WM has all the time it needs to establish precedents, eg via their current court cases and put through new legislation which makes independence impossible. I'm starting to read "four nations approach" as exactly that: the exact sloganising as "one nation" and meaning the same thing.
ReplyDeleteThe awful thing is Wings was right, imo: he and others were trying to warn years ago what was happening, and many of us in the party saw it but just didn't quite understand what was happening. We needed to change the leadership 2 years ago. May was the last ditch attempt to prevent a situation where an SNP working with the unionists has had ten years since the Brexit vote to kill off independence. (I'm even started thinking how convenient that totally unnecessary post Xmas covid spike was to both governments - everyone locked in with no pubs, no meeting people, no protests/demos etc for the entire period between Brexit and the Scottish elections.)
I'm honestly not sure what the pro indy movement can do now. We've already missed the boat we have those who deliberately caused that in power for another 5 years of more of the same. I just feel in despair for Scotland generally.
Excellent post.
ReplyDeleteNot much to argue with there. Especially the stuff about persevering with Nicola Sturgeon despite numerous disappointments which with hindsight seem more like betrayals.
ReplyDeleteIt is important, however - in fact it as absolutely crucial - to never lose sight of the fact that Scotland's cause cannot succeed without the effective political power that only the SNP, as the party of government, can provide.