Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Stunning Panelbase poll shows pro-independence majority

The Panelbase poll that several people have mentioned being interviewed for has now been published, and it turns out the client (at least on the headline indy question) was Believe in Scotland.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Panelbase / Believe in Scotland)

Yes 51% (-)
No 49% (-)

This is now the eighth poll in a row, across all firms, to show Yes on 50% or higher, and the seventh poll out of eight to show some sort of Yes lead.  Once again, this bolsters the impression that the Yes vote bounced back very slightly after the dip earlier in the year, and that a slim Yes lead is now the new norm.

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More details and analysis to follow.  You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).  And if you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.


  1. This is really great stuff. It does seem that our baseline has now hit the 50% mark and independence is already or very soon to be the settled will of the Scottish people.

    That is the key to the success of indy; that's a decision not made on the spur of the moment in the heat of a campaign based on glossy promises on the side of a bus. Nope, it should be the carefully considered will of the people which has grown through time. No regrets or going back when the times comes. Just moving on to a new future.

    1. Keith Brown SNP Deputy Leader "The pandemic is not over yet and there will not be a referendum until it is".... Ad nauseam...Ad nauseam...Thoughts?

    2. James, I am currently residing in the Philippines, do the rules allow me to contribute to your blog site?

    3. There were reports that Johnson has been advised to force a snap referendum during the pandemic. It's a fight over who gets to control the timing, the franchise and so forth.

    4. If as likely there is going to be a pro indy majority in May Westminster will have to concede and allow a section 30. Once given, the terms of the referendum will need to be ironed out and that will take time and could mean that the referendum will in fact be at the end of the pandemic.

    5. I would lead them a merry dance too.

      Boris Johnson told to force indyref2 mid-pandemic to prevent Yes victory

      SENIOR Tory ministers believe Boris Johnson should push Scotland into a second independence referendum while the pandemic still rages in order to secure a victory for No, according to reports.

    6. I'm a little curious if anyone thinks it would be a great idea to have a referendum in the middle of a pandemic?
      Personally, I think it just hands the pro UK campaign a stick to beat us with. "Putting independence before people's lives."
      We've realistically only got one more shot at this in the foreseesable future. Let's not make it harder than it needs to be.

    7. Very wise to keep the soft No's from 2014 who have crossed over to Yes. Things will be much better in 3 months time when Europe finally catches up with their vaccination programme.

  2. 51/49 is wearisome. The SNP and Greens need to cerate a dynamic that starts pushing the independence theme resolutely, as all the fears that NS is just peddling very softly will be proven true if not. The level of 'don't knows' seems pretty low to me, and one thing I think I do know is that a lot of people who might answer 'no' in a poll will actually relax and go with it if that's what's happening. Instead of Alba though, we need Labour in Scotland to come out in support of independence. I don't believe that we will get to 75% as per 1997 without that.

  3. No change in Alba support from the last poll, assuming that Panelbase have used the same, statistically anomalous approach of naming Alex Salmond alone as leader next party name on the main prompt.

  4. I just got Marie McNair's leaflet (SNP candidate for Clydebank & Milngavie) through the door. I read it through and independence doesn't get a mention. What's going on? I'm not a fan of all this name calling between SNP & Alba but I'm genuinely stunned to see a text filled double-sided A4 leaflet from an SNP candidate which doesn't mention indy. Reading it you wouldn't know indy was even a thing in Scotland just now. What on earth!

  5. Yes 51 and No 49...Believe in Scotland have the poll results up now.
    On the Constituency, SNP and Green are on 51%.
    On the list SNP,Green and Alba are on - wait for it - 51%.
    Who'd have thunk it?

  6. 1.Covid isn't going to disappear. Managing it significantly downward is the point. Below a point it ain't a pandemic.
    2.When YES wins this election there will be a struggle to gain the principle of a referendum from the mendacious buffoon.
    3. There will then be a dogfight over the ground rules.
    4. Then there will be the referendum campaign.
    5. Then a referendum.

    There is your "time" Keith. Bullshit us at your peril ' the SNP will not be the only indy party in the future !