Ellon & District by-election first preference result:
SNP 42.4% (+10.5)
Conservatives 41.7% (+0.8)
Liberal Democrats 10.2% (-9.5)
Labour 2.9% (-4.7)
Greens 2.8% (+2.8)
Technically this was an SNP 'hold', but the Tories had a very healthy lead in the popular vote in the ward last time around, so they could have 'gained' the seat even with a substantial swing against them. Indeed, they would have been expected to gain the seat even with the SNP having a slight lead on first preferences. It's slightly mysterious it didn't work out that way, because the Lib Dem vote was substantial enough to mean that unionist transfers should have got the Tories over the line handily. Is the unionist bloc vote breaking down?
Over 45% for independence in a Britnat area. Brilliant.
ReplyDeleteI didn't get you at first, forgot to add on the Greens
DeleteGreat to see this, perhaps people really are seeing the chinks in the armour of the so called union now, it's just not working for Scotland.
ReplyDeleteIt breaks the pattern of the local by-elections before the December 2019 General election and these string of opinion polls on Independence since.
ReplyDeleteThe transfers should be informative. Typically, yes, the Brit parties will cascade into one another as the transfer rounds go on, voting tactically against the SNP. Of those parties, only the Tories were anywhere near strong enough on first preferences to win the seat, of course. Are Labour and Liberal voters finally finding the disaster Brexit-pandemic Tories too much to stomach? And are they changing their minds on independence?
ReplyDeleteIt’s always fascinating to see this stuff at work in actual elections. Get ready for the Holyrood election next year when the constitution is well and truly on the ballot!
All good news and cannot wait for the Holyrood election.
DeleteAlly
Since 15.9% of the votes were potentially transferrable, for SNP to win, 7.6% had to come from other first or high preference parties. Assuming all 2.8% Greens transferred (by no means certain), then around 4.6% of the 5.7% Lib Dems and Labour must have favoured SNP. I know I have made some fairly shaky assumptions but, as an order of magnitude switch it is noteworthy.
DeleteIndy vote solid and increasing.
ReplyDeleteUnionist vote fragile, and not prepared to vote Tory.
Only one end result.
Question Time in Edinburgh last night.
ReplyDeleteThe BBCs idea of balance is 4 against independence 2 for independence and a Britnat Fiona Bruce in the chair. This on the day 56% for independence.
I did not see QT last night but by all accounts Forbes and Brett did extremely well and had all the facts and figures to hand. Made the others look like what they are. Apparently 2 very articulate members of the audience gave the unionists a very hard time. More and more people are now seeing that the BBC is just a westminster propaganda operation and will backfire on them.
DeleteAlly
Both were excellent but according to IoS don't support Independence.
DeleteIan Wood was embarrassing. It's true what the say that you don't have to be clever to make money.
AMC who is IoS ? Are you GWCs cousin ?
DeleteNice piece of deflection to concentrate on my typo error IFS! As for the GWC reference, grow up ffs.
DeleteYou might gain a bit more respect by explaining why you think Forbes and Brett don't support Independence.
Either of them would rip you to bits in an argument regarding their commitment to the cause.
AMC - you are posting pish - never said Forbes and Brett don't support independence. No deflection
DeleteBoth are members of what you refer to below as "the current SNP" who you are inferring do not support Independence.
DeleteAs for me posting pish, just grow up ffs
AMC - just grow up, stop inferring and stop posting push - there's a good boy.
DeleteInsults, spite and hatred.
DeleteYou really are a sad lonely individual.
Do yourself and everybody else a favour and fuck off back to WoS.
AMC - don't post on WOS - you and Skier are obsessed with WOS. So in summary your post is just a lot of sad pish. All you have done is just insult me but post absolutely nothing worthwhile.
DeleteNot sad - your posts are laughable - certainly not lonely.
The real SNP - 51% bye bye UK
ReplyDeleteCurrent SNP - 58% "we have a long way to go"
Why don't you just not vote SNP? Nobody's forcing you.
DeleteYou are starting to bore everyone with this. It's the same on every blogpost. Your comments have no point to them at all; you just repeat the same stuff that everyone already knows.
I really don't like the Tories, but I don't spend my time constantly repeating that over and over again. People already know it.
Vote ISP if you like. Or Greens. If you have a good alternative to party you think people should consider, give is the positives about them.
Negative 'I hate party X' doesn't win over voters. You need to talk about a positive alternative.
Aw poor Skier doesn't like the truth. Poor Skier cannae handle the truth.
DeleteI will vote for who I want to but never a Britnat party. Skier it's not your site is it so why do I need to do what you say. Perhaps you should go away and ask someone for a moral compass.
Skier - if you don't like the " we have along way to go " comment best take it up with your fellow SNP member Smith.
DeleteSkier - I have never said I hate the SNP. I say it needs a new leadership, a new NEC and a revitalised party with a substantial war chest for independence. Put a mandate for indepence in the next election and less of the stupid policies like The Hate Bill and sort out nonsense like GERS. So apart from that the SNP is fit for purpose.
DeleteAnother Wings disciple carrying the Masters word to other blogs!
DeleteJulia Gibb - Sturgeon fangirl. I make up my own mind about facts - you should try it some time instead of doling out meaingless insults. So you can have it back - Sturgeon Fangirl. Must be a problem getting all that sand out of your hair.
DeleteHow ironic you complaining about meaningless insults IFS. It's practically all you do.
DeleteAMC - just give them back to mindless idiots like you who are happy to dish them out but complain when on the receiving end.
DeleteThere is zero point even trying to attempt a serious debate with you.
DeleteDefinitely something not right with your wiring. A sad, horrible individual with nothing in your life but insults, spite and hatred.
AMC - you never attempted any debate you idiot. You just insulted me at the getgo as the Americans would say. And then of course you continue on with the insults - but when you insult you are not a sad horrible individual are you - hypocrite and mindless idiot that's what you are.
DeleteThe transfers are encouraging.
ReplyDeletePty - Rnd1 - Rnd2 - Rnd3 - Rnd4
SNP - 1683 - 1725 (+42) - 1757 (+32) - 1916 (+159)
Con - 1658 - 1663 (+5) - 1679 (+16) - 1840 (+161)
Lib - 405 - 443 (+38) - 485 (+42)
Lab - 114 - 126 (+12)
Grn - 112
Non - NA - 15 (+15) - 51 (+36) - 216 (+165)
Note the Lib Dems picked up the most transfers from the Greens and Labour and non-transfers were the largest proportion of final Lib Dem transfers. The final round of transfers were basically evenly split between non-transfers, SNP and the Conservatives - a cross of independence and Brexit?
Only possible answer
ReplyDeleteThe Green 2nd prefer. Obviously SNP
A large proportion of the Labour 2nd preference went to the SNP.
A sizeable chunk of the LibDems backed the SNP instead of the Tories. Probably EU supporters.
The BritNats are chasing a dwindling pool of diehard Unionists.
Julia Gibb - a Sturgeon fangirl - so Julia just why was Sturgeon lying about the meeting with Geoff Aberdein - so Julia why does Sturgeon not hold the people to account for the failed civil and criminal trials? No doubt like all the rest of you with your head in the sand you have no answer.
DeleteNo Julia has nothing to say - head in the sand Julia.
DeleteThe 3 unionist party's are literally in a position of being slowly bled dry of voters.
ReplyDeleteAnother 2 or 3% loss of voters between them to the SNP side could see LIB,LAB , CONS actually losing or gaining seats from each other on the list vote in HR21
Now people like Julia Gibb, Ramstam, Rocksie67 just haven't got a clue - bit stupid obviously. But Skier - well he blatantly lies all the time - so why does he make such an effort to lie all the time?
ReplyDeleteHold on, are you saying you don't like the SNP?
DeleteWhy didn't you tell us before?
So Skier why do you lie all the time?
DeleteHey Scottish Skier - when I read Janes’s posts I always scroll down to check your analysis. I suggest you ignore whoever ‘Independence for Scotland’ Is, unless he/ she/ they make an argument that is not just a rant about why they don’t like someone/ something.
ReplyDeleteJustin great advice many thanks but I would add that he should stay away completely from my posts because he is a liar.
Delete