As ever, trying to tease out Theresa May's real objective is the riddle at the heart of this latest Brexit development. Using the threat of a vote on No Deal to coax Remainers into voting for the deal wouldn't make any sense, because everyone knows parliament will vote against No Deal anyway. So logically that only leaves the possibility that the threat is intended to bring Brexiteer Tory MPs back on board. But even if that worked, would it actually produce a majority for the deal? There's been a theory that the deal might go through thanks to a coalition of spooked Tory Brexiteers and self-styled "responsible" Labour rebels. But the main reason a fair number of Labour MPs were thinking of backing May was to prevent No Deal, and if everyone knows that a vote the next day will produce a thumbs-down to No Deal, that reason diminishes somewhat. So I think we still have to assume that the likelihood is that the Commons will vote down the deal again, albeit probably by a significantly narrower margin than before.
Once again today, we've been treated to a depressing display of slipperiness and imprecision in the way that journalists have reported the latest twist. The BBC website claims that the vote on the day after the deal is rejected would be on "ruling out no deal". My understanding is that it would actually be about avoiding a No Deal exit in March, but wouldn't seek to remove the option of No Deal at a later date. And in any case, it's not actually in parliament's gift to rule out No Deal (unless it revokes Article 50 altogether). Any extension would have to be agreed with all of the other 27 EU member states, and the mood music suggests that the EU would only grant a temporary extension if the UK has come up with a credible Plan B. If there is no clear alternative way forward, the EU would be looking for a very lengthy extension lasting almost two years. As things stand, there is no sign of a Plan B, and May has ruled out an extension beyond the end of June, so once again we're heading for a direct collision between two irreconcilable positions, with No Deal on 29th March remaining the default outcome if neither a deal nor an extension is agreed.
Avoiding No Deal is in the mutual interest of both the UK and the EU (although it's obviously more important to the UK side), so you'd think some sort of halfway house compromise on an extension would be the most likely outcome, although at the moment it's murderously hard to see what form that could possibly take, especially if the Prime Minister is as hellbent as she says she is on avoiding UK participation in the European Parliament elections in May.
The BBC is still dogwhistling the trope of beastly foreigners and the likelihood that when the crunch comes they will back down - as they have always done in the face of phlegmatic BRITISH RESOLUTION!
ReplyDeleteThere is rule of thumb and that is foreigners run their own countries and are welcome to visit then go back home tae see their mammy.
DeleteCordelia the racist, there. Let's hope it doesn't need to use the NHS any time soon; all the foreigners will be bad for its blood pressure.
DeleteThat's a very clear concise summary of the situation and very helpful. The whole pantomime of extending beyond June then messes up the EU Parliament election process whereby the 27 (sane) remaining countries have been allocated extra seats pro-rata gained due to Brexit. The election campaign has already started and I don't see many allowances being made to accommodate the foot-stamping UK.
ReplyDeleteThis entire crazy fiasco will cause harm all round but as you say, particularly to the self-harming UK. How many of the 27 will really want the UK to remain? Given that England might choose to have another nervous breakdown in a couple of years?
I reckon lain we British can prevail inspite of the NAZI threats from Bruxelles. Open yer eyes.
DeleteThe British haven't prevailed in anything since the Boer War, but good luck to them.
DeleteI think Cordelia gets its news from the Dreary Heil and the Daily Diana. They're the spiritual home of blinkered right-wing racists.
DeleteReading your comments is better than pressing against the spin drier.
DeleteCordelia, there, sharing entirely too much about its bizarre personal habits.
DeleteSo, the Great British Constitutional crisis is soon to kick off properly in earnest. We've not even had the starter yet; only just begun on the apperitif. Going to potentially present a notable spanner in the works for UK trade deal negotiations.
ReplyDeleteAnd Labour + the Lib Dems must stand with the SNP on this and block, delay, scupper....everything to ruin England's Brexit.
After all, devolution belongs to unionist parties. It's their baby. The SNP don't want devolution; they want to end it asap. But they must defend it because the democracy spoke in 1997. The English goverment must not overrule the 74% epic landslide will of the people and British unionist devolution.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47357244
Brexit Secretary Mike Russell pledged to resist any attempts by Westminster to impose common policy frameworks in the event of the "chaos" of a no-deal Brexit.
The Brexit secretary pointed out if the powers in the EU Withdrawal Act were used, it would freeze the Scottish government's cooperation.
Mr Russell told the Finance and Constitution Committee the Act was "dead to us and we don't acknowledge its legitimacy."
Unionists are going to tear apart their own union.
I've seen the same tortured reality of an excuse for blaming the SNP that diddy mundle used tonight in another place.
ReplyDeleteOne of the regular yoons on cif always accused the SNP of running away from FFA. When challenged that the SNP had in fact voted for FFA his response was interesting.
Apparently the SNP didn't want FFA so all their MPs voted for it knowing that MPs from the english parties would be duty bound to vote against anything supported by the SNP and therefore stop FFA for Scotland.
Odd that any two individuals with no apparent connection could come up with an identical attack line. Unless the same people were providing the script for fluffer and the sockpuppet?
The Jock Nat sis will love the new Jock chanel 9. No leavers on the panel. No working class on the panel. No leftie on the panel. Just like Fox News, fair and balanced.
ReplyDeleteI love the BBC. Brilliant. Really the best thing going.
DeleteAm away oot tae pay my license fee the noo.
Radio 2 remains my favourite channel though.
Cordelia's pining for the days when an SNP representative was, almost without exception, shouted down by three Unionists.
DeleteSwinney and the other Tory are for school segregation and sectarianism.
ReplyDeleteState of this on its way back to the sobbing cupboard.
DeleteYou must have felt at home with the Nat si, Tory and Blairite on the same panel. All anti brexit and believing in school segregation.
DeleteCordelia the child abuse obsessive there, screaming with rage at the idea of reasonable debate.
DeleteThere's a surprise.
Five remainers and one leave that is a typical NAZI fair and balanced debate.
DeleteCordelia the child abuse obsessive's idea of a fair and balanced debate panel: Flute Band Boy, Yaxley-Lennon, Farage and Snarlene.
DeleteBBC need to be careful with this channel. It could go too far down the vulgar slide. 20 years of snow government has tried to turn young Scots into munchers. Much more if this and and they will think that's ok
ReplyDeleteEveryone is playing hot potato.
ReplyDeleteThey want No-Deal...they just don't want to take the blame. YES must stop projecting noble intensions on Brexit where there are none.
If I asked you to show me a Brexit process for a no-deal where May can blame someone else (and not spook the natives)....wouldn't it look exactly like what we have witnessed for the last 2 years?
Lets be honest....the list who want NO-DEAL is big and probably the majority in Westminster:
- DUP...it blows up the GFA
- Disaster capitalists... they get to asset strip the country
- Disaster socialists...they want to re-write their socialist vision
- Hardcore Unionist....they want to reverse devolution
- Ideologues ....OMG! Henry VIII powers....so deliciously despotic.
If the facts on the ground don't support what you think they should be doing...its time to look at the facts - take off the rose tinted glasses and see what they are really doing.
Brexiters will be pleased. Net EU migration utterly collapsing. Absolutely falling off a cliff. The UK said 'Fuck off back to where you came from' and that's exactly what they are doing*.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/february2019
See Figure 2.
"Immigration to the UK for work has fallen to its lowest level since 2014".
So the UK absolutely not the place to come for global talent; it's the EU for them!
So, rather than introducing new visa systems to limit EU workers, we need to pay them a lot more than 30k to come here and be xenophobically abused!
---
*Net migration from the rest of the world is up, but this is largely just students here for a short stay.
These figures are of course to end September 2018. As it stands, data suggest net mass emigration of EU citizens is either underway already (but not yet registering due to lag artefacts), or will be later this year.
DeleteWe know that EU workers are leaving en mass already (employment stats tell us this), so we can assume the same is now happening to all EU citizens.
The exit gates out of the UK are literally crammed with people.
Time for brexit voters to get the champagne out I suppose.
Or, in Cordelia the liar's case, the Toilet Duck.
DeleteThe EU migrants are welcome to go home and boost the unemployment figures in their home countries. That is why the EU want free movement and just to offload their unemployed. The British carried Eire for decades by taking in their unemployed.
ReplyDeleteI do hope Cordelia the liar doesn't get sick when there's a shortage of NHS staff to treat it because they went back to Europe. This is what happens when you scream xenophobic garbage at people for years.
DeleteWord is that England is prepared to end democracy.
ReplyDeleteWould make colony status official, turning the UK into a facist state where minority cultures are denied democratic rights.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47406529
England 'will reject Sturgeon's Indyref2 calls', ending democracy in Scotland
If you want a huge majority for indy in polls, this will do the job. Going to be a fright to a lot of Scots No voters to find out they're not actually in the UK on their own free will, but prisoners of a racist, facist, English state.
Such a move completely ends democracy. It's an offical electoral ban on the SNP, Greens, and other indy supporting parties. Likewise, it removes the right to vote from anyone who might consider supporting indy; their right to vote (for that if they choose) would be removed.
The Jock Nazis did not accept democracy after the last two referendums.
DeleteScotland is currently in the UK and exiting the EU.
DeleteThe mandate for #iref2 comes from total acceptance of the results of 2014 and 2016. If the outcome of 2014 had not been respected, Scotland would be independent. If the Scottish governent did not implicitly accept the result of 2016 for the UK, it could not use brexit as a justificaton for iref2, obviously.
Please tell me you as not so dumb as fuck to not understand that.
Democracy is voting on things as many times as you want. Totalitarianism / Fascism is stopping people from voting on things, e.g. ignoring the results of elections (2016) and parliamentary votes (new iref bill).
Anyway, you are a traitor and a quisling if you support England attemping to overule democracy and take colonial possession of Scotland. I've never once said such a thing about unionists before as I believed we were in the UK freely (when it came to it). However a refusal of a Section 30 makes it true for those that take the English government position.
And it can't be called the UK government if a Section 30 is refused. It becomes the English government if that happens.
England might as well start killing Scots first born or something. That's going to be the effect of this polling-wise.
ReplyDeleteRefusal of a section 30 means there is no longer a UK union. Unionism dies that day.
No longer will unionists be able to knock doors and try to persuade people of the merits of sticking with the UK. What's the point if Scotland can't leave? Folk will just call them the English gestapo and tell them to fuck off back to their English masters. And they'd be absolutely right about it.
People who support the UK governent would finally become 'traitors and quislings'. The BBC would, without doubt, become the English state propaganda channel...
Everything the 'crazy nats' have said would turn out to be absolutely true in the eyes of Scots. The SNP were right all along... about everything.
That is what happens with the refusal of a section 30. The union dies, and colonialism begins. England better be prepared to send up the jackboots. It will need to if it continues down this path (see Ireland, black and tans etc). Just have a look at Spain; England will need to beat up Scots and try to jail sturgeon etc. It's what's required if you don't want to accept the result of democratic votes.
Scots unionists better pray that this is not true and the the Section 30 is granted. For refusal kills their union forever in the hearts of Scots.
Read a synopsis of the Belfast Agreement years ago but have read the full agreement. The EU is not involved or mentioned therefore they have no legitimate reason to interfere. The ROI can resolve the border issue with the UK without EU interference. The ROI/UK BORDER is not an EU border.
Deletehttps://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf
Delete...17. The Council to consider the European Union dimension of relevant matters, including the implementation of EU policies and programmes and proposals under consideration in the EU framework. Arrangements to be made to ensure that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented appropriately at relevant EU meetings...
...establish a Human Rights Commission with a mandate and remit equivalent to that within Northern Ireland;
• proceed with arrangements as quickly as possible to ratify the Council of Europe Framework Convention on National Minorities (already ratified by the UK);
4. In the context of active consideration currently being given to the UK signing the Council of Europe Charter for Regional or Minority Languages, the British Government will in particular in relation to the Irish language, where appropriate and where people so desire it:
...Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union;
Not this Scot and many others.
DeleteUnionism ceases to exit if you can't vote for it. If you can't freely vote for indepdence, you can't for the union either.
DeleteRefusal of a section 30 is an effective ban on both pro-union and pro-indy parties as their is no point voting for either; it changes nothing.
That is what pro-UK parties would face on the doorstep. I would not want to be them. "Vote for me because I support cancelling your right to vote for what you want". Good luck with that.
If a Section 30 is refused, support for the union will collapse and independence becomes absolutely inevitable. The union can only hold together so long as Scots believe they are choosing freely to be in it.
The ECHR is Not the EU. The ECHR has 47 members. The EU (repeat) has no say in the Belfast Agreement.
ReplyDeleteI left out all the quotes about the ECHR. Can you not read English?
DeleteI just quoted all the mentions of the EU that you struggled to read with your poor grasp of English, but which my French wife noted readily.
Is your French Tart joined at your hip.
DeleteSo. Cordelia's still racist, then.
DeleteHow do you come to that conclusion. I am just a fictional character.
DeleteCordelia is a liar, a racist and a misogynist with a sickening obsession with child abuse.
DeleteIt certainly isn't fictional.
Worrying bit for me is that its 6 weeks since Sturgeon said she would outline Independence proposals, now its something will be said in 'a few weeks. Seems more like throwing our soundbites rather than an actual plan.
ReplyDeleteTime to get the peanuts in shape. Ship shape and bristle fashing.
ReplyDelete