Tuesday, June 13, 2017
The SNP mustn't allow itself to become hobbled for decades by the legend of a "defeat" that never actually happened
Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at the TalkRadio website, with more thoughts on why the SNP would be extremely unwise to reverse policy on an independence referendum. In particular, going down that road would create a dangerous legend that a referendum didn't happen because the British Prime Minister "bravely stood up to the SNP", rather than because she outrageously ignored a clear democratic mandate. You can read the article HERE.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Too true. Another reason why it would ne extremely unwise is that any such action would see a meltdown in their membership figures. It would be very difficult for many members to stomach such a betrayal.
ReplyDeleteAn excellent article.
ReplyDeleteIt would be a ridiculous decision and agree that membership would drop by over 50% if not more.
There should be no harsh decisions made by SNP HQ at this time.
Yes, Thursday was a hugely disappointing result ; but we still are the biggest party. There does have to be thorough research and analysis though of many factors including losing the 'Heartlands'; the negative and poor campaign ; and what we do next.
No harsh or over-rectory decisions at this moment. We need to bide our time for now but continue to argue for an inclusive cross-party Brexit as Nicola has been doing.
Nothing like will happen for at least six months! Let's refresh our minds, hearts and soul and let the Tory party destroy itself over Brexit, the DUP links, soft/hard Brexit, weak leadership, having a minority government.
Independence will not go away. The movement will not go away either. We still WON on Thursday (albeit with by a smaller scale than many of us imagined) we still have a majority much bigger than all three Unionist parties put together.
Sit tight, and bide our time for the now ; but things will and do change quickly. So we need to be ready.
Hibernate for six months..? That would be a mistake in so many ways.
DeleteThe SNP (and SGP) chose to put the ball in play and now they have to see it through to the end.
What would you think of a football team who gave up at half time not because they were losing but because they weren't 100% certain if they would win..? There is no way to recover from that kind of cowardice.
Sturgeon can't just respond to events, waiting for independence to fall into her lap. That is not leadership. Perhaps there is a time to watch and wait but now she has to discover the ability to shape events and to forge her/our own destiny.
The game's afoot. It's too late now to do anything else.
The SNP webshop needs to start selling bug tubs of popcorn.
ReplyDeleteBide our time, let Teresa and her ToryDupe Govt unravel then step in to offer a better alternative to the Westminster omnishambles.
I too agree with you entirely James. We cannot be seen to back down one millimetre from our previous position or the sharks won't just circle they will come in for the kill.
ReplyDeleteYou are also right to say previously that nothing will satisfy Ruth 'No Referendum' Davidson. The only way to lance the referendum boil is to bloody well have one.
The reason the Yoons are so strident about one is they are absolutely, pants threatening, shit-scared of losing this one. ESPECIALLY in the face of Brexit. Something which even, briefly made Kezia waver as testified by Sturgeon.
With Ruth having FAILED in her request to May by May's appointment of an anti LGBTQ bigot as Justice Minister and Lord Chancellor we know she is fecking useless.
Suspicion must be growing that she is angling for a ermine cloak.
Ruthie wants to be FM.
ReplyDeleteWithout telling anyone her policies.
Surely people now see the desperation from the unionists regarding another indyref? May and Mundell ruling it out, why rule it out if the Scottish public have apparently spoken?
Why not put the nail in sturgeons career? What are they afraid of.
There is always an outside chance the yes side would win. So, from a unionist point of view, the sensible thing to do is to block. Then you get what you want - Scotland in the UK - without having to take any risks.
DeleteIt's an entirely logical position for a unionist.
In plainer language, your party is attempting to block the democratic process because it fears it might lose. An important admission.
DeleteIndeed. It would be an outrage but for one thing - we already took you on and won.
DeleteBtw, with the ultra unionist DUP propping up the Conservative government - even if English, Welsh and Scots Tory MPs wanted to grant an indyref - what's the chances of the DUP getting on board? Precisely nil I would think. They might just blame it on the DUP: "Sorry guys, we wanted to do it, but they won't let us and, to be honest, they're pretty scary people. Soz"
Delete"It wasn't an outrage that Hitler abolished democracy because he had already won the 1932 election" said nobody, ever.
DeleteNo one is talking about abolishing democracy. But the matter is settled. The referendum was less than 3 years ago.
DeleteNo other country in the world would hold secession referenda at the drop of a hat two or three years after a previous vote on the same issue.
Plus all this is destabilising. Education in Scotland is crumbling. Holyrood went a year without passing legislation - something that didn't happen even under the old Scotland office. The SNP has spent tens of hours debating brexit and the constitution and single figures on health and education. Enough. Run the country.
Of course the matter isn't settled. Circumstances have changed radically, and the elected Scottish Parliament has decided to hold a second referendum. Don't you watch the news?
DeleteAldo, perhaps its because they just campaigned on a no indyref campaign, which got lots of press but ultimately....they didnt win.
DeleteDo you fail to see that the SNP COST may her majority, its already been admitted by Tories that she called it to give the SNP a bloody nose.
It gave us a bloody nose but nearly knocked you out. You now have no majority, brexit is now at the mercy of parties that had no say before.
Indyref 2 is going nowhere, because it is the pressure that has caused the Tories to panic and gamble.
The SNP acheived 35 MP's with an awful campaign. If you think we will have an awful campaign next time AND think the degree of tactical voting will be the same or worse next time then you must be mad. Labour yes voters will go back to the SNP if the message surrounds independence, especially when Corbyn says he is against it quite publicly.
The SNP were behind by not much in the north east, a pish turnout due to us being up for it, nothing like a bunch of Tories to unseat as motivation.
An autumn election is looking less likely, but if it did happen, I would be very worried if I was a Tory about the north-east seats that have only just been gained. Most of them are not all that secure, and anti-Tory tactical voters will be in no doubt that the SNP is the best option to get the Tories out.
DeleteKeep on banging the indyref drum and you will alienate even more voters - and harden those who voted against you this time. If Sturgeon has a 'majority' it's on 36.9% of the vote. Add in the Greens and that's 37.1% of the vote. There is no justification for a second referendum, based on those figures.
DeleteYour 'material change' of brexit is simply an excuse to hold a rerun. One wonders what the 'trigger' would have been had brexit not occurred. Austerity? Tories re-elected? Trident renewal? Something to do with the "vow"?
We're looking at a soft brexit now anyway. Between that and the poor performance from the SNP last week - and the fact we now have a Tory-DUP government - I would say that's the end of that. The SNP can now get back to governing and fix the education system they have single handedly destroyed.
"If Sturgeon has a 'majority' it's on 36.9% of the vote."
DeleteThe mandate for the second independence referendum was of course received at the Holyrood election last year. But it's probably worth pointing out that 37% is identical to the mandate Cameron received to hold the EU referendum. The only difference is that Sturgeon has an even bigger lead over the second placed party than Cameron did.
Do we really have to keep countering the same dumb arguments over and over again? Scots voted to stay in the UK and in the EU. We can't do both.
DeleteThis is a real issue - not an "excuse" - which must be resolved fairly ie with another vote.
Nothing has changed in Scotland as a result of May's premature election other than as well as having xenophobic bigots in Westminster running the show,we can now add homophobic,Catholic hating creationists.
ReplyDeleteHow lovely!
All we need is a Trump state visit with his lot of bigots to top it all off.
Bigots Together,the new anti independence cabal and their new slogan "No Surrender".
Whit a joke ye are. The Catholic church are world leaders in homophobic hatred followed by the evangelists and Islamists. Look in yer own cupboard bigot. Yer No Surrender jibe fools no one.
DeleteI hope you enjoy being the plaything of the DUP. Your rabid howlings are downright liberal compared with those of your overlords' new masters.
DeleteIt's like Rocky! He lost the fight but was the winner. The Tories thought it would be a cake walk but got the crap kicked out of them. They called an election WHEN THEY WANTED and the SNP BEAT THEM 3 to 1!! Don't forget, the amp folks were all newbies with NO TIME to build up a record. No time to build up 5 years of favors. Plus, the Tories outspent again. This the SNP has to prepare for.
ReplyDelete63-37 in favour of unionist parties.
DeleteThat is ALL that matters, re indyref2.
69-59 in favour of a referendum is all that matters, actually. And 35-24 is rather helpful as well.
DeleteActually, it's more like 328-314 against, in the British parliament - the only body that has the power to decide this - and they will take into account Scottish public opinion - something your party ignores in favour of a small clique of its own.
DeleteAldo they are fanatics. The Scottish people, democracy mean nothing to the nutters. In another life and culture they would be suicide bombers. Pure nut jobs mad as hatters. Most are products of premature ejaculation up the back of a dunny close.
DeleteThats a bit harsh GWC. But I sense a certain anger and volatility now that I didn't a week ago. Their goose is cooked. They know it. Sturgeon knows it. Expect a humiliating climbdown or a final, suicidal, dash for glory.
DeleteThought I was being kind and moderate when you consider their anti English fanaticism and love of selling Scotland out to the Bundesbank.
DeleteI hope you enjoy being the plaything of the DUP. Your rabid howlings are downright liberal compared with those of your overlords' new masters.
DeleteI'd like to hear James' opinion on Peter Kellner's comments on election night. He said independence is "dead". Kellner worked at YouGov - the only mainstream pollster to predict a hung parliament. Is Kellner talking rubbish then? Please don't throw accusations of political bias - these guys have reputations to worry about if they call big events wrong.
ReplyDeleteIf you'd been following my Twitter feed, you would already know my reaction to Peter Kellner's comment, because I gave it instantaneously. Yes, Kellner has an agenda on Scotland. No, that is not something we've only just discovered. Yes, that agenda should preclude him from being used as an "impartial expert" by the BBC when Scotland is being discussed. Yes, the fact that his remark went unchallenged raises obvious question marks over the BBC's commitment to repairing the massive damage to its reputation suffered in 2014. Yes, it was an absolutely outrageous episode, and it damages Kellner's reputation even further.
DeleteNot what you wanted to hear, clearly, but there it is.
Oh, and by the way, Kellner no longer works for YouGov, so he can claim absolutely no credit whatever for the hung parliament forecast. His former colleagues were scathing about him after he left, with one publicly saying they had to clear up the mess he left behind. His predictions as an independent pundit since leaving YouGov have been as dreadful as anyone else's - he didn't predict Brexit, and he didn't predict a hung parliament.
DeleteI think the only party that doesn't regularly accuse the BBC of bias against it is the Liberals.
DeleteAnd they probably think it, they're just too polite to complain.
Tory bhoy on Newsnight saying the Tories should change their name to the Workers Party. Well hit me with yer shovel Mick. Trotsky a Tory!
ReplyDeleteI hope you enjoy being the plaything of the DUP. Your rabid howlings are downright liberal compared with those of your overlords' new masters.
DeleteI don't see how anyone can come to any conclusion as to the extent of the Indy vote in what is a complex political situation right now. If i had been in a marginal I'd have voted for the anti-Brexit candidate whoever that was. It wasn't a referendum it was an election.
ReplyDeletePersonally I think too much of Scotland is too dependent by nature at the moment for independence. Dependent or BritNats at any cost. If I were the SNP I'd play the long game and push for more powers and wean us off the rest of the UK bit by bit.
This is a good point, you know.
DeletePeople like to draw false equivalencies. Voting SNP means you support a referendum. Voting Conservative means you support Brexit. It is not necessarily so.
Parties have manifestos on a range of issues. We know that 84% of the population are against fox hunting, yet the Conservatives got more than 16% of the vote. There is an organisation called 'Labour for Yes'.
Or if you want to get really weird, there is a small number of UKIP voters who also voted Remain. I have to admit I struggle with that one a bit.
You choose the party that is closest to your ideals, but you accept that there's always going to be some policies that don't match your personal view.
And if you can't accept compromise, you pull a George Galloway and go off to sulk and start a party of your own.
Touting a vote for your party as explicit support for all your policies is just dumbing down the argument. People are complicated.
The SNP's problem has always been its desperation to be accepted as "respectable". It's something that goes all the way back to the days of the old National Party of Scotland, and its craving for the Earl of This and the Duke of That to act as sponsors and patrons. It needs to accept that it's not going to win every vote in Scotland and announce unashamedly it's intention to proceed on 50% plus one, and make no apologies for it. Like they do in every other country.
ReplyDeleteThere were several seats the SNP lost because of tactical voting by lib dems and it would be wrong to assume that a vote for Labour was an anti-independence vote. Support for Indy is still Where it was - around 47%. An SNP vote is not the same thing as an Indy vote in a referendum. We got 56 MPs in 2015 when Indy vote was 45%. SNP still has a mandate for a referendum. We keep going!
ReplyDeleteI'll say it again, the only swing in scotland was 15% from the snp to tories. The labour and lib dem votes were practically static. The SNP have to understand why between a third and a quarter of their 2015 vote has given up on them.
Delete