Punchy Panelbase poll puts SNP lead at 29%

Constituency ballot :

SNP 50% (-2)
Labour 21% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 3% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 48% (n/c)
Labour 19% (-3)
Conservatives 17% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 5% (-1)
UKIP 2% (-1)

Panelbase are in line with Ipsos-Mori and Survation in showing a potentially significant increase in the Tory vote.  (The most recent YouGov poll also had the Tories at an unusually high level, but that was months ago.)  The missing piece in the jigsaw, however, is TNS, who reported that the Tories slumped after the spring, and so far haven't detected any recovery at all.  Perhaps the next TNS poll will belatedly show the same pattern as other pollsters, but if it doesn't there will still be some doubt as to whether the Tory mini-renaissance is real.  TNS are, after all, one of only two pollsters who use a 'real world' data collection method for Holyrood polls - ie. they go out and find a completely fresh sample for each poll, rather than relying on a volunteer online panel.

There is also a growing split between TNS and other pollsters on the size of the SNP vote.  The TNS estimate is 58%, which if replicated in the election would certainly see Nicola Sturgeon reach the target figure for an absolute majority on constituency seats alone.  But Panelbase have now joined Ipsos-Mori in suggesting that the SNP have slipped to "just" 50% - exactly the level they were at in the UK general election last year, when of course they failed to win three seats, and won several more by relatively narrow margins.  65 constituency wins out of 73 would be required to secure a majority without needing any list seats at all, and it's becoming harder and harder for the smaller parties to plausibly claim there is no polling evidence to suggest that the SNP may well need their own list vote to hold up.

For Labour, the unremitting gloom continues.  Although 21% on the constituency ballot has become a very familiar number for them, this is (as far as I can see) the first time that Panelbase have ever shown them that low.  It's also the first time that any pollster has clearly suggested that things have got even worse for Labour under the Corbyn/Dugdale "dream team"- with other firms it's been more a case of the new leadership failing to repair the damage that had already been done under Miliband, Harman and Murphy.

As you know, I am unconvinced by the excitement over the Tories supposedly finding themselves on the brink of becoming the second largest party.  Although some polls (including this one) have shown a very small gap between Labour and Tory, not a single one so far has shown the Tories break out of third place, while TNS have continued to report a very substantial Labour advantage.  But for those of you who think the earthquake is possible, it's worth bearing in mind what to look out for - because in the race for second place, only the list vote matters.  Even if Labour and the Tories pick up the odd constituency seat here or there, it's highly unlikely that either will find themselves over-represented on constituency seats in any region, so their numbers in parliament will be entirely decided by the list.  And, unfortunately, past history suggests that polling is significantly less reliable on the list ballot than on the constituency vote.  So it's possible we'll go into polling day with some uncertainty hanging in the air over whether Dugdale or Davidson will be leader of the opposition.  (In my view, it'll be Dugdale - unless she resigns.)

Panelbase are unusual in listing the Greens as an option on the constituency ballot.  It's simultaneously both a meaningless and fascinating exercise, because self-evidently there's no way the Greens can get 3% of the constituency vote if they don't stand in most constituencies, but on the other hand it's a useful insight into what the gap would be between the party's constituency and list vote if the electorate had an equal chance to vote for them on both ballots.  The answer is that the gap probably wouldn't be all that big.  There's certainly no sign that Green voters are minded to give a "mass tactical vote" to the SNP in the constituencies before switching to their preferred party on the list.  At most, 2% of the electorate are that way inclined, and the true figure may well be lower.

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Some of the percentage changes in today's update of the Poll of Polls will seem thoroughly counter-intuitive.  The reason is that YouGov have now dropped out of the sample because they haven't conducted a (published) Holyrood poll for over three months, and Panelbase are returning to the sample after dropping out a few weeks ago.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 52.5% (-0.3)
Labour 20.8% (n/c)
Conservatives 15.8% (-0.5)
Liberal Democrats 6.0% (+0.2)

Regional list ballot : 

SNP 47.5% (+0.7)
Labour 19.5% (-0.3)
Conservatives 15.3% (-0.5)
Greens 7.5% (-0.3)
Liberal Democrats 6.8% (+0.5)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have reported Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers over the previous three months, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are four - Panelbase, Survation, TNS and Ipsos-Mori. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)