Good evening from the less-than-sunny Isle of Arran, where I've just got stranded AGAIN. It wasn't even my fault this time - it was physically impossible to get back, because the ferry is apparently stuck in Gourock or some such semi-mythical location. Mind you, I probably should have realised that "sunny and warm" on the BBC weather forecast last night was code for "thick, impenetrable fog". Schoolboy error. For a while I thought I was going to be sleeping on the streets, because most of the hotels and guest houses in Brodick seem to be full.
I'll have to save my phone charge, so amuse yourselves if a poll comes out overnight. By the way, on the train this morning I overheard the most extreme example of anti-Scottish bigotry I've ever encountered - perhaps more on that tomorrow.
Good luck with accommodation.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if you saw George Eaton's bit in the staggers. He says some polling have shown a shift to slab and that 1/3 of SNP would be more likely to vote labour. Any thoughts?
That would make no difference as both would not use tax raising powers and end food banks etc.
DeleteYou could start the Nat sis hard done to stories in Miniature Scotland James. If only sheep could vote but you had plenty of sheep on the mainland and failed.
DeleteEat your cereal.
DeleteAs a good mythical Gourockian I'll do a dance round the Granny Kempock to ensure your safe return voyage James.
ReplyDeletePoor James is hardly a refugee trying to get from an impoverished Scotland to England and I look forward to his comment about anti Scottish bigotry and hope he can establish with some credibility who made the comments.
DeleteAnd there was me thinking he'd met you!!!
DeleteI'll start the animal sacrifice on Tower Hill.
DeleteRichard the only polling I can see by Eaton. Is a UK poll showing the Tories with a six point lead. Labour is going back the way at UK level. Given he can only be elected in the UK Parliament. I doubt Scottish voters would shift their votes to Corbyn's party. However perhaps the Holyrood voting intentions are showing something different,but I can't see it.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete1 October, 2015 at 11:30 pm
Glenrothes West & Kinglassie (Fife) result:
SNP – 59.0% (+16.5)
LAB – 31.9% (-9.3)
CON – 6.2% (+3.2)
GRN – 3.0% (+3.0)
So much for the Corbynite!
DeleteOops back to to polling and leaving policy aside.
ReplyDeleteEat your cereal.
DeleteFatty
DeleteBreaking news!
ReplyDeletePolice Scotland have stepped up their search for the village missing it's idiot. If you see or hear him please contact them.
If Labour were to make a gain, of all the by-elections tonight, this one in Kinglassie would be their best chance - by a long shot.
ReplyDeleteThey literally weighed the Labour vote there up until very recently indeed.
BBC Herald Daily Mail, has your latest smear campaign gone just every bit as well as your relentless efforts for 6 months prior to GE 2015? Perhaps even better???
literally
DeleteTo paraphrase the Princess Bride, "I do not think this word means what you think it means".
Breaking - Torys have apparently actually overtaken Labour in the first preferences at Irvine by election (North Ayrshire Council) and have come second place to the SNP.
ReplyDeleteMy girlfriend is from Crosshouse originally. This result is more than incredible. Irvine??????
Pretty sure it is Irvine Valley and it is East Ayrshire. Still SLAB must be sick as parrots.
DeleteNP hold Irvine Valley (East Ayrshire):
DeleteSTV first preferences:
50(+5)% SNP
24(+6)% Con
24(-6)% Lab
2(+2)% Green
EDIT
SNP hold Glenrothes West & Kinglassie (Fife):
STV first preferences:
59(+17)% SNP
32(-9)% Lab
6(+3)% Con
3(+3)% Green
From Britain Elects Twitter
Con was narrowly ahead in Irvine Valley by 0.2% on first preferences.
DeleteTories and Labour neck and neck in Scotland. Aaaagh, the humiliation.
ReplyDeleteLuigi - It's the Corbyn effect! LOL
ReplyDeleteI think T in the park gate and housesale gate. Will backfire on the better together Labour and Tory coalition. People are fed up with that style of mischief making.
I just can't see the lesser spotted tories and Lib Dems voting tactically for Corbyn. Even unionists have some standards! Makes you wonder just how much Labour's core vote loss in Scotland has been masked by tactical voting. Things could be even worse than they appear for Labour in Scotland. The BBC will go all out in order to shore up Labour in May 2016, but it may already be too late. Interesting times.
DeleteUnionists Must Unite!!!....but behind who? With the Red Tories and Blue Tories now necker neck it's a pretty tough choice.SNPouters will have some serious head scratching to do.
ReplyDeleteScottish cross-break of YouGov GB poll is SNP 47, Con 26, Lab 17.
ReplyDeleteSNP won the two by-elections in Aberdeen and one in Stirling. An independent won in Lossiemouth. Sounds like the SNP are also winning a by-election in Linlithgow (West Lothian council) - they were about 1,000 ahead of Labour on first preferences.
James, was the bigotry from American missionaries in uniforms? I've encountered them before on the Gourock-Glasgow train. I overheard them saying in loud voices that Scotland is immoral and like a third world country.
ReplyDeleteHere are 4 of the remaining by-election results from yesterday from Britain Elects. Still waiting on the West Lothian result. These are first preference votes, and presumably the change is from 2012. The one thing that leaps out is there does appear to be a small swing from Labour to the Conservatives in most cases, including the two results last night.
ReplyDeleteMidstocket / Rosemount (Aberdeen)
SNP - 40.9% (+2.0) CON - 23.6% (+9.8) LAB - 21.2% (-11.2) LDEM - 8.3% (+2.0) GRN - 6.0% (-0.4)
George Street / Harbour (Aberdeen) SNP - 51.2% (+17.5) LAB - 26.1% (-5.4) CON - 10.4% (+3.7) GRN - 7.2% (-0.1) LDEM - 5.1% (-4.7)
Stirling East (Stirling) : SNP - 45.2% (+8.3) LAB - 37.7% (-11.9) CON - 11.8% (+3.1) GRN - 5.2% (+0.5)
Heldon & Laich (Moray) IND - 41.1% (+41.1) SNP - 31.1% (-5.9) CON - 21.8% (+4.6) GRN - 6.0% (-0.6)
The Heldon and Laich result is really disappointing considering how incompetent, inept and corrupt the ruling Independent & Tory coalition on the council is.
DeleteIt is perhaps not surprising though. I did predict some weeks ago that unless the SNP took it on round one then they wouldn't win it. The Tories have once again transferred their vote to an Independent who ran virtually no campaign at all.
West Lothian was another SNP win so it was a 6 out of 7 for the SNP.
It could be you see the rise of the Tory percentage is due to the low turnouts - Tories have a hard core vote and are very loyal in voting.
DeleteCalum I suspect it might be closer to home...Just guessing..Lesser spotted Red, White and blue Tits!
ReplyDeleteSNP hold Linlithgow.
ReplyDeleteThe results in the local council by-elections suggest any 'Corbyn bounce' is right wingers bouncing out of SLAB in reaction straight into the Tories, though some SLAB support seems to have gone to the Greens too. Authenticity vs U-Turn Corbyn perhaps there.
ReplyDeleteCorbyn will be gone by Christmas at this rate.
ReplyDeleteYeh I agree looks like the Tories benefitting from Labours collapse. It makes me uncomfortable that there are still that many Tories in Scotland. However if I was Labour, I would be thinking. Sh*t all the left wingers are in the SNP and our guys that are left are soft Tory unionists! Maybe Ruthie slogan could be Labour voters come home to Tory.
ReplyDeleteResult for Linlithgow:
ReplyDeleteSNP 2,049 [43.1%: +10.1%]
Labour 1,088 [22.9%; -0.5%]
Conservative 973 [20.5%; -17.7%]
No description 230 [4.8%; +4.8%]
LD Caron Lindsay 133 [2.8%; +2.8%]
If you add those votes that did not vote Natsi then it is almost 50/50. So the Nat sis should not celebrate. And Cameron at last has layed down the gauntlet to the Nat sis regarding taxation. How will the Nat sis wriggle out! Will they tax the Scottish better off and unfreeze the council tax!!
ReplyDeleteEat your cereal.
DeleteWell James you did say 'perhaps more on that tomorrow'. You have declined to do so so far.
ReplyDeleteI believe the word 'perhaps' is very adequately explained in most popular dictionaries.
DeleteIndeed James so you have declined to give a full account of this anti Scottish incident you apparantly encountered on a train journey. So why mention it?
Delete