I can't bring you the full Thorniewood by-election result yet, because it doesn't seem to have been published online, and probably won't filter through to social media until the morning. But what we do know is that the SNP were narrowly ahead on first preferences. Labour nudged ahead at one point on transfers, and then the SNP fought back to reach the quota on the sixth count. It sounds to me like the swing from Labour to SNP must have been in the region of 23%, because that's the minimum that would have would have been required to place the SNP in front on first preferences.
Just in case 23% sounds like a rather pedestrian swing compared to what we got used to a couple of months ago, fear not. This time we're measuring from a completely different baseline. The Thorniewood ward was last contested at the local elections in 2012, when the SNP were already 1% ahead of Labour nationally (a result that was memorably described by unwitting comedy legend Mike Smithson as a "disaster for the SNP"). So a 23% swing tonight is roughly equivalent to a 34% or 35% swing at the general election. That's not quite as high as the record-breaking 39% achieved by Anne McLaughlin in Glasgow North-East, but it's very much at the upper end of the spectrum. If it was replicated across the country, it would place the SNP very nearly 50 points clear of Labour, although of course that's grossly misleading, because the swings are bound to be biggest where Labour were previously strongest.
This being the crazy world of by-elections under the Single Transferable Vote system, it's technically an SNP "hold" - even though the SNP were a mind-boggling 46% behind Labour the last time the ward was fought.
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UPDATE : The full result is now available. At 25%, the swing was a bit higher than I assumed, and it turns out that Labour were never ahead at any stage in the count.
A win is a win is a win. Gain or hold. Large swing or no swing at all.
ReplyDeleteLabour are not winning in Scotland.
"A win is a win is a win."
DeleteThere I disagree with you. This is far more than a win. This is an earthquake.
http://www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=31806
ReplyDeletegives the turnout (28%) and the order in which the preferences were redistributed, but not the detailed numbers (yet).
For as long as the main issues in Scotland are constitutional ones Labour is going to struggle to get a hearing.
ReplyDeleteThey'll struggle until they offer the voters what we want.
DeleteInstead of telling the voters what they think we should want.
For as long as the main issues in Scotland are constitutional ones Labour is going to struggle to get a hearing.
DeleteThat doesn't make any sense. Polls continue to suggest that most Scots want to remain in the Union. And the fact that Unionist support is split shouldn't matter in a transferable vote.
If elections like this one are really about constitutional issues, Labour would be winning.
Also, it's North Lanarkshire, for Christ's sake. Where can Labour actually win now? Maybe they've still got a chance in well-heeled areas where they'll get a lot of second preferences from Tories, but I doubt even that.
Labour still don't get it do they. Last night on the STV politico at 10:30 they dismissed Jeremy Corbin out of site. He is antiausterity and has been addressing huge crowds in England. I would be more fearful of him than the tory arse kissers they have both in England and up here then it's not our problem !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteWow!
ReplyDeleteWith this heading you have surpassed your usual excellence in the alliterative field.
Toutes mes félicitations!
James, can you explain a bit more for those of us (hello!) who are unaccustomed to the world of transferable voting how this is technically an SNP hold and a 46% swing? Who previously held the seat? And how does the voting system translate into swings?
ReplyDeleteThe Penman
Scottish local government councils are now elected under Single Transferable Vote (STV), a form of PR. That means instead of having small wards that are elected by the first past the post method, there are bigger wards with multiple members elected at each general election.
DeleteThis means that parties who get substantial vote shares but don't place first in a ward, can still get somebody elected. For example, in this Thorniewood ward, at the last general election for the council (2012), Labour got about 70% of the vote and the SNP got 25%. If it was under the old system, the likelihood is that Labour would have won all three council seats in the area, because they were so far ahead. Instead what happened is Labour got two people elected and one for the SNP was also elected.
Recently (for whatever reason) the person elected for the SNP in 2012 decided to resign his seat. This meant there had to be a by-election for the ward, which was open for all the parties to contest. If you had a result anywhere similar to the 2012 election, then obviously Labour would have won. The SNP needed a swing of 23% or greater to finish ahead of Labour.
The result is technically a "hold" because it was an SNP person who resigned and was replaced by another SNP person, but it signifies a major shift in what must have been one of the safest Labour areas in the country.
The previous seat holder was a SNP councillor who resigned a few months ago. He had come third in the council elections for that ward in 2012, with the first and second places held by Labour.
DeleteI don't know if they make adjustments to by-elections to account for currently elected representatives or if it's an even race between the candidates. If the former, then this isn't a big deal. If the latter, then the SNP has just come first in a ward Labour previously used to be first and second in.
It's the latter
DeleteWe've got another of these situations coming up next month in my ward, Calton. Labour won two seats in 2012 and the SNP one, and the SNP seat is now vacant. I understand it's the strongest Labour ward in Glasgow. If Labour don't "gain" that one, they might as well start booking seats in the Lib Dem taxi.
DeleteBreakdown here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=16848&p=0
One interesting point to note is the Conservative reallocations - 89 no preference, 61 Labour and 25 SNP.
Duncan McShannon sadly had to resign his seat due to serious illness
ReplyDeleteOh that's sad. I had assumed the by-election had been caused by a councillor who had been elected to Westminster. I'm sorry to hear that.
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