tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post9201646225669604..comments2024-03-29T04:11:41.539+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: A Thursday thunderclap in Thorniewood : SNP surge sustained in breathtaking by-election breakthrough, as lousy Labour lament a Lanarkshire lickingJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50794124373373918252015-07-10T15:21:17.539+01:002015-07-10T15:21:17.539+01:00We've got another of these situations coming u...We've got another of these situations coming up next month in my ward, Calton. Labour won two seats in 2012 and the SNP one, and the SNP seat is now vacant. I understand it's the strongest Labour ward in Glasgow. If Labour don't "gain" that one, they might as well start booking seats in the Lib Dem taxi.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48989755519723319262015-07-10T15:13:09.709+01:002015-07-10T15:13:09.709+01:00For as long as the main issues in Scotland are con...<i>For as long as the main issues in Scotland are constitutional ones Labour is going to struggle to get a hearing.</i><br /><br />That doesn't make any sense. Polls continue to suggest that most Scots want to remain in the Union. And the fact that Unionist support is split shouldn't matter in a transferable vote.<br /><br />If elections like this one are really about constitutional issues, Labour would be winning.<br /><br />Also, it's North Lanarkshire, for Christ's sake. Where can Labour actually win now? Maybe they've still got a chance in well-heeled areas where they'll get a lot of second preferences from Tories, but I doubt even that.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85049285705467153312015-07-10T13:04:49.402+01:002015-07-10T13:04:49.402+01:00Oh that's sad. I had assumed the by-election ...Oh that's sad. I had assumed the by-election had been caused by a councillor who had been elected to Westminster. I'm sorry to hear that.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9499127310965061772015-07-10T12:53:23.116+01:002015-07-10T12:53:23.116+01:00It's the latterIt's the latterAngry Weegienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57109660476471161162015-07-10T12:49:14.124+01:002015-07-10T12:49:14.124+01:00They'll struggle until they offer the voters w...They'll struggle until they offer the voters what we want.<br /><br />Instead of telling the voters what they think we should want.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-8202078231579278502015-07-10T11:53:46.061+01:002015-07-10T11:53:46.061+01:00Duncan McShannon sadly had to resign his seat due ...Duncan McShannon sadly had to resign his seat due to serious illnessAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70499378831153289562015-07-10T11:53:37.535+01:002015-07-10T11:53:37.535+01:00Breakdown here:
http://www.northlanarkshire.gov.u...Breakdown here:<br /><br />http://www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=16848&p=0<br /><br />One interesting point to note is the Conservative reallocations - 89 no preference, 61 Labour and 25 SNP.2612https://www.blogger.com/profile/06321159177450575569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38015758016339581522015-07-10T11:47:46.111+01:002015-07-10T11:47:46.111+01:00The previous seat holder was a SNP councillor who ...The previous seat holder was a SNP councillor who resigned a few months ago. He had come third in the council elections for that ward in 2012, with the first and second places held by Labour.<br /><br />I don't know if they make adjustments to by-elections to account for currently elected representatives or if it's an even race between the candidates. If the former, then this isn't a big deal. If the latter, then the SNP has just come first in a ward Labour previously used to be first and second in.Alan Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-61687119529065973132015-07-10T11:32:10.617+01:002015-07-10T11:32:10.617+01:00Scottish local government councils are now elected...Scottish local government councils are now elected under Single Transferable Vote (STV), a form of PR. That means instead of having small wards that are elected by the first past the post method, there are bigger wards with multiple members elected at each general election. <br /><br />This means that parties who get substantial vote shares but don't place first in a ward, can still get somebody elected. For example, in this Thorniewood ward, at the last general election for the council (2012), Labour got about 70% of the vote and the SNP got 25%. If it was under the old system, the likelihood is that Labour would have won all three council seats in the area, because they were so far ahead. Instead what happened is Labour got two people elected and one for the SNP was also elected. <br /><br />Recently (for whatever reason) the person elected for the SNP in 2012 decided to resign his seat. This meant there had to be a by-election for the ward, which was open for all the parties to contest. If you had a result anywhere similar to the 2012 election, then obviously Labour would have won. The SNP needed a swing of 23% or greater to finish ahead of Labour.<br /><br />The result is technically a "hold" because it was an SNP person who resigned and was replaced by another SNP person, but it signifies a major shift in what must have been one of the safest Labour areas in the country.James Mnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33235086167004457912015-07-10T10:14:19.785+01:002015-07-10T10:14:19.785+01:00James, can you explain a bit more for those of us ...James, can you explain a bit more for those of us (hello!) who are unaccustomed to the world of transferable voting how this is technically an SNP hold and a 46% swing? Who previously held the seat? And how does the voting system translate into swings? <br /><br />The PenmanThe Penmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-50199026417203195032015-07-10T10:05:07.622+01:002015-07-10T10:05:07.622+01:00Wow!
With this heading you have surpassed your u...Wow! <br /><br />With this heading you have surpassed your usual excellence in the alliterative field.<br /><br />Toutes mes félicitations!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55075362659033369252015-07-10T09:47:46.523+01:002015-07-10T09:47:46.523+01:00Labour still don't get it do they. Last night ...Labour still don't get it do they. Last night on the STV politico at 10:30 they dismissed Jeremy Corbin out of site. He is antiausterity and has been addressing huge crowds in England. I would be more fearful of him than the tory arse kissers they have both in England and up here then it's not our problem !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31377934150408972292015-07-10T09:16:42.938+01:002015-07-10T09:16:42.938+01:00For as long as the main issues in Scotland are con...For as long as the main issues in Scotland are constitutional ones Labour is going to struggle to get a hearing. Jeffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-13191962310736313632015-07-10T05:24:00.191+01:002015-07-10T05:24:00.191+01:00http://www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/index.aspx?arti...http://www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=31806 <br /><br />gives the turnout (28%) and the order in which the preferences were redistributed, but not the detailed numbers (yet).Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18030288559421186872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85130016983100870172015-07-10T03:06:51.547+01:002015-07-10T03:06:51.547+01:00"A win is a win is a win."
There I disa...<i>"A win is a win is a win."</i><br /><br />There I disagree with you. This is far more than a win. This is an earthquake.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79872025279674044412015-07-10T03:03:51.629+01:002015-07-10T03:03:51.629+01:00A win is a win is a win. Gain or hold. Large swing...A win is a win is a win. Gain or hold. Large swing or no swing at all.<br /><br />Labour are not winning in Scotland.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com