You'd scarcely have thought it was possible, but the new YouGov poll on the EU referendum shows that the yawning chasm between Scotland and the rest of the UK has grown even wider recently...
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
Britain-wide result :
Yes 42% (-2)
No 35% (-1)
Scottish subsample only :
Yes 60% (+1)
No 24% (-4)
Bear in mind that the question wording was a little different in the last poll, so the results are technically not directly comparable.
As you can see, the Britain-wide figures have tightened still further, albeit only very slightly. With Don't Knows excluded, the pro-EU camp now leads by just 54.7% to 45.3% - much closer than the type of results YouGov were producing in the independence referendum (until the Yes surge in the last few weeks of the campaign).
YouGov aren't applying any sort of meaningful turnout filter to their headline results, which may be hugely significant. 78% of No voters say they are absolutely certain to turn out to vote, compared to just 68% of Yes voters. That perhaps shouldn't be surprising, because older people are always the most likely to turn out, and they are also the most likely to want out of Europe. Admittedly, that's partly offset by the fact that less affluent voters (who are less likely to turn out) also tend to be anti-EU. But at this stage it certainly looks as if No voters are going to be somewhat more motivated, which in itself is more or less enough to wipe out the Yes lead. If only definite voters are taken into account, the gap is just 51.3% to 48.7% - firmly within what the Americans would call "statistical tie" territory.
And once you start considering the possibility of 'Shy No Syndrome', all bets are well and truly off. The scenario in which Britain votes No, and Scotland votes Yes - thus triggering an early second independence referendum - is nowhere near as fanciful as some would have you believe.
How about...
ReplyDeleteEngland votes something like 51 or 52% No but Scotland votes overwhelmingly yes, overturning England's vote into a UK wide narrow Yes.
That'd be interesting. Hypothetically, of course...
It wouldn't just be interesting - it would be *hilarious* :)
DeleteI'm expecting something like Scotland heavily Yes, Wales a marginal Yes, England a marginal No and NI a heavier No. Most likely an overall No.
DeleteI do wonder what No supporters plan to do if they achieve an overall No purely on English votes despite one or two or even all three of the other UK nations plumping for Yes.
The Little Englanders will be incandescent. Those who do not have strokes/aneurisms will erupt in an ocean of bile and hatred towards Scotland causing most to recoil in horror and giving Yes 70% support
DeleteStrange vote this. I'm anti EU but I'll probably vote IN in the vain hope that we can achieve the defining Scotland IN rUK OUT result that could trigger iref 2.
ReplyDeleteMandela
Does it have England only percentages?
ReplyDeleteNo, it doesn't, annoyingly. It's got regional percentages -
DeleteNorth of England :
Yes 39%
No 35%
Midlands and Wales :
Yes 43%
No 32%
South excluding London :
Yes 39%
No 41%
London :
Yes 45%
No 33%
In fairness, didn't the poll also say that a larger % of Yes people were definite Yes whereas there were more on the No side who thought there mind could be changed. This would to an extent offset the turnout factor.
ReplyDeleteGranted, however, your premise that a No vote is entirely possible is sound. Going to be interesting though as the indyref Yes movement built momentum by being positive and something people wanted to associate with. I'm not sure the, Kipper led, EU No campaign will be quite the same somehow! Mind you that could just mean a bigger shy No factor...
"In fairness, didn't the poll also say that a larger % of Yes people were definite Yes whereas there were more on the No side who thought there mind could be changed"
DeleteWell...21% say they will definitely vote to leave the EU, compared to 30% who say they will definitely vote to stay in. So a 9% gap, compared to a 7% gap on the headline numbers.
At the end of the day, I think rUK will vote YES, certainly by a smaller margin than Scotland, but YES nevertheless. So all you optimists hoping that this will trigger another Scottish referendum, don't get your hopes up. You will end up disappointed.
ReplyDeleteI don't think people should get their hopes up, but on these figures the EU referendum is firmly in the balance, and there's no point pretending otherwise. I think there's a very straightforward scenario which might lead to a No surge - and that's when UKIP are no longer identified as leading the 'Out' campaign. Paradoxically, the better UKIP have done over recent years, the more that support for the EU has recovered. If sane-looking Tories take over the No campaign, it may be a different proposition.
DeleteI think if there was a positive campaign to leave the EU, then UK membership of it, would be in big trouble, for me, the argument to leave hasn't really been made yet?
DeleteIt's about more than immigration and if they diversify their arguments, then the vote to leave will increase.
The fact that big business is hell bent on staying in it, immediately has me suspicious, I think that's more of a bitterness following the indyref and the blitzkrieg just before it.
Yep, I guess there are a number of ways this could unfold. However, I am a bit concerned that some people are beginning to sound a bit hopeful that it is all going to play a certain way and favourable to Scottish independence, which could end in disappointment and uncertainty ("what now?"). I think SNP strategists will be sensible about this and be working on different plans for whatever the outcome of the EU referendum is.
ReplyDeleteOne of those scenarios is likely to be that the EU referendum campaign will alienate a lot of people in Scotland. A load of red faced, swivel-eyed Little Englanders on the TV are hardly likely to shore up Scottish Unionism, are they?
DeleteI wonder if the threat of "losing" Scotland will switch some right wingers in England to vote to stay in the EU. The empire being very important to them.
ReplyDeleteAldo.
The IN vote will only increase. Similar to the AV referendum, when the big two and their media puppets start pushing their agenda, and all with the support of big business, the masses will do as they're told.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone is hopeful it will play a certain way to benefit iref 2, tbh. There's just not a lot else to speculate on just now.
Mandela
The AV comparison is not very useful, in my view. The reason it was so easy for No in that campaign is that nobody really gave a monkey's about the issue - so any half-hearted scare about money was enough to put people off. The EU referendum won't be quite as intense as the indyref, but it'll be more like that - people will be thinking about the issue seriously, and that'll give Out an opportunity, if they can make the case.
DeleteI can't reply directly for some reason, James...
ReplyDeleteThat's a fair point and I'm willing to concede, but, "If they can make the case"...if who can make the case? This is partly my point which I didn't articulate particularly well. Who, realisitically, is going to front the OUT campaign?
Maybe a few 'acceptable' Tories take a stand (possible given that Cameron has already stated he'd stand down after this term so any long term career impacts from rebelling on this are somewhat mitigated) but it certainly won't be anyone that many people will be able to identify or identify with.
Mandela