Thursday, May 7, 2015

Exit Poll Sensation : SNP predicted to take every mainland seat

BBC/ITV/Sky Exit Poll result for Scotland :

SNP 58
Liberal Democrats 1

I was watching the UK-wide BBC programme, so I'm making the assumption that the only seat the SNP aren't predicted to win is Orkney & Shetland - hence the "Lib Dem 1".  Correct me if I've misunderstood.  [UPDATE : Apparently I may have misunderstood - a comment below says it's SNP 58, Labour 1.]

GB Exit Poll result :

Conservatives 316
Labour 239
SNP 58
Liberal Democrats 10
Plaid Cymru 4
UKIP 2
Greens 2

The YouGov on the day poll is not quite as wonderful for the SNP, but still pretty good -

Conservatives 284
Labour 263
SNP 48
Liberal Democrats 31
Plaid Cymru 3
UKIP 2
Greens 1

UPDATE (11.20pm) : Labour tell the BBC that the Lib Dems are on track to hold Edinburgh West - if true that would obviously cast huge doubt on the Scottish portion of the exit poll.

Posted by James Kelly at 10:02 PM
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38 comments:

  1. keatonMay 7, 2015 at 10:05 PM

    i dont even

    ReplyDelete
  2. bill mcleanMay 7, 2015 at 10:06 PM

    Whit????

    ReplyDelete
  3. chalksMay 7, 2015 at 10:13 PM

    Surely not

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:15 PM

    Conservative majority of 5 to 10, I predict.

    Labour wiped out in Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  5. HappyHillwalkerMay 7, 2015 at 10:17 PM

    The Independent is reporting it as 1 Labour survivor in Scotland! (whew! we'll need Orkney and Shetland 'cos that's where the oil is!)

    ReplyDelete
  6. November13May 7, 2015 at 10:18 PM

    Exit poll 2010 Correct within 3 seats. 92 was a long time ago,so not relevent!

    ReplyDelete
  7. GaavsterMay 7, 2015 at 10:19 PM

    So if every single person in Scotland had voted SLAB to 'keep the tories out', it wouldn't have made one bit of a difference!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. OnwardsMay 7, 2015 at 10:20 PM

    Anyone know the sample size for Scotland - Individual seats involved, or just based on general swing ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. James KellyMay 7, 2015 at 10:24 PM

      It's not going to be huge - it'll be the size of a normal full-scale poll, or maybe a little larger.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:34 PM

      BBC exit poll around 20,000?

      Delete
    3. James KellyMay 7, 2015 at 10:38 PM

      Yes, so presumably the Scottish sample will be about one-tenth of that.

      Delete
    4. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:44 PM

      How big was the you gov one?

      Delete
  9. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:26 PM

    Oh my blimey! Please let this be true...please let this be true!!

    No Labour MPs in Scotland...I can barely contain my excitement!

    But the BBC are panicking about the accuracy, and the Lib Dems must be absolutely crappin themselves as well.

    Could this poll be wrong? It seems wrong, but then there are precedents...

    ReplyDelete
  10. David FrancisMay 7, 2015 at 10:28 PM

    Gap is far too big Con-Lab and SNP will not take 58 - around 50 far more sensible..

    Totally out of kilter with all other polls.

    Tons of salt required

    ReplyDelete
  11. GaavsterMay 7, 2015 at 10:28 PM

    Ladbrokes now going 1-20 that CAmeron will remain PM...

    When's indyref2?

    ReplyDelete
  12. November13May 7, 2015 at 10:32 PM

    Next week Gaavster

    ReplyDelete
  13. muttley79May 7, 2015 at 10:33 PM

    Frankly I would say the SNP winning 48 seats is far more likely than 58. I think the exit poll is garbage.

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:44 PM

    I guess indyref2 must now be on the manifesto for 2016

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:46 PM

    I had heard that no exit polls were planned in Scotland at this Election. Have I misheard or are we looking at a gross extrapolation? If the latter then the SNP numbers are very shaky predictions indeed.

    Alan Forrest

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:47 PM

    What is an "on the day poll" - is that the same as an exit poll?
    Aldo

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 10:49 PM

    SNP around 53.
    58 is a dream.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Chris WrightMay 7, 2015 at 11:04 PM

    YouGov was a recontact survey, not an exit poll. So apples and oranges.

    ReplyDelete
  19. chalksMay 7, 2015 at 11:06 PM

    Lib dems fucked after that 1st result. Ed balls rumoured to be in trouble.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 11:14 PM

    Yes - just seen tweet from Yougov saying "You Gov has not done an exit poll. A re-contact survey today simply gave us no reason to change our final numbers from yesterday". Sounds to me like the exit poll will be more accurate than the You Gov poll. 50+ for SNP? Fingers crossed.
    Aldo

    ReplyDelete
  21. cynicalHighlanderMay 7, 2015 at 11:26 PM

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/596439448461639681

    ReplyDelete
  22. GaavsterMay 7, 2015 at 11:30 PM

    Paddy Power have already paid out on the Tories being the largest party....

    ReplyDelete
  23. LuigiMay 7, 2015 at 11:34 PM

    It will be 45 seats for the SNP, on 45% of the vote. There is something about Scotland and 45.

    ReplyDelete
  24. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 11:36 PM

    Libdems rumoured to be on course to hold Edinburgh West.

    ReplyDelete
  25. AnonymousMay 7, 2015 at 11:52 PM

    Can anyone attend the count center? Or only party agents?

    If anyone can, can anyone inform me of the Edinburgh (East, if that matters) count center?

    I apologise if this seems ignorant. I've voted SNP and wanted to help, but had my final exams for University (fourth year), so that unfortunately took precedence. Would like to be part of the event if thats possible, though'

    Thanks for your assistance in advance.

    (Also, thank you to James for this blog - it keeps me thoroughly entertained!)

    Regards,
    Conor

    ReplyDelete
  26. chalksMay 8, 2015 at 12:13 AM

    Danny no more

    ReplyDelete
  27. November13May 8, 2015 at 12:22 AM

    Rumoured SNP wiped out Labour in Glasgow! The poll was correct!

    ReplyDelete
  28. EdinburghPhilMay 8, 2015 at 12:27 AM

    I'd be very surprised if LibDems win Edinburgh West. I suspect that Labour were winding up the BBC.

    ReplyDelete
  29. AnonymousMay 8, 2015 at 12:48 AM

    Or Labour in Edinburgh South - no chance

    ReplyDelete
  30. NiallMay 8, 2015 at 1:05 AM

    So is Orkney and Shetland definitely the seat that the SNP haven't won (if exit poll is correct?)

    ReplyDelete
  31. MarciaMay 8, 2015 at 1:50 AM

    Carmichael is now struggling in Orkney and Shetland. OMG

    ReplyDelete

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