Thursday, April 16, 2015

Scottish viewers say Nicola Sturgeon won the BBC debate by a crushing 68% to 17% margin

Who do you think 'won' the debate? (Survation, respondents in Scotland only) :

Nicola Sturgeon 67.9%
Ed Miliband 17.4%
Nigel Farage 8.5%
Natalie Bennett 5.2%
Leanne Wood 1.1%

Respondents were also asked immediately after the debate to say which of the leaders would make the best Prime Minister of the UK...

Would make the best Prime Minister? (Survation, respondents in Scotland only) :

Nicola Sturgeon 56.4%
Ed Miliband 31.6%
Nigel Farage 7.3%
Natalie Bennett 4.0%
Leanne Wood 0.8%

It's amusing to hear that, in spite of these numbers, Polly Toynbee has predictably managed to convince herself that Miliband has somehow "retrieved some Scottish votes" tonight.  Good ol' Pol.


  1. Thank goodness for my non-partisan mrs. I was asking her 'is it just me or is it so obvious that Ms Sturgeon is on a completely different level to the rest of them'. She fully agreed.

    Maybe it is something to do with Nicola actually believing in what she is saying rather than constantly trying to remember what you think you should be saying.

  2. Nicola was superb as usual. There is no surprise up here at her ability. Over the next few months the Uk will see and hear a lot more . Outstanding First minister.

    Wings has a screen grab of the girls at the of the debate. A sign of hope over the despair of austerity.

    WM is shaking :)

  3. Is it me or has there been this many "debates" so as to try and let the Westminster parties finally get their shit together and put down the SNP?

    I do not want to sit through another one of these affairs and watch grown men with their heads up their backsides, trying to beat Sturgeon with the power of their brain farts alone.

  4. Now be fair to poor Polly Toynbee. The 'some votes' Miliband she mentioned was at least half a dozen. After all a few people thought that he won.

  5. Sorry Survation and your panel but Radio Scotland is currently headlining with a quote from some obscure English political analyst who says that Labour was the clear winner.

  6. Huge panelbase down-weighting of SNP respondents in their latest UK poll. 2010 SNP down weighted from 33 to 13, but still a respectable 4% of the UK total.

  7. Victoria Derbyshire show today had TEN guests (members of public with expressed VI), one from each party and a couple undecideds. Only one was from Scotland (the only SNP supporter).

    Panel - 8 Sturgeon, 1 tie Sturgeon.Miliband (the Labour person), 1 Farage (the Kipper).

    The Survation fantasy poll may go down in infamy.

  8. Did you notice that the first question on who won did not have the putting aside your own party preferences preamble? Mmmm suspicious

  9. Populus UK subsample:

    49% SNP
    28% Lab
    11% Con
    8% Lib

    Fairly run of the mill

    1. SS, these subsample updates are appreciated. Is there anywhere online where you post them all?

      Seems almost all SNP leads are now over 20% but I'd like to check up on this.

  10. Surely a bit worrying that more Scots viewers seem to have put Nigel Farage on a higher results banding than either Bennett or Wood.

    Is it because they are BBC viewers? Is it because they are SCOTS BBC viewers, and can only deal with 1 strong and competent woman at a time? Do they represent a strong and simmering racist, anti-immigration and misogynist group of voters in Scotland, some of whom elected the ubiquitous David Coburn?

    1. It's most likely because there wasn't a Tory.

      That and Sturgeon was clearly the best performer out of the three in that loose alliance, so there weren't many votes left over for Wood or Bennett. Sturgeon scored higher than Wood in Wales, for example.

    2. Farage performed very poorly in the Survation poll when you consider that there was no Tory there. There should have been 40+% of the vote available to him without competition, yet he only got 27% across GB. Similarly there would be about 20% available to him in Scotland, yet he got less than 10%.

    3. Okay, no Tory there. I thought I briefly spotted Ed Miliband there, however, doing his Fixedly Staring At The Camera stuff. Maybe that was all just a horrible dream and it was just some kind of subliminal hologram beamed in from Tory party HQ.

  11. I am usually a pessimist, but that, that, is just ridiculous.

    I tried to place a multiplier bet on SNP seat gains, y'know easiest to hardest. Bet365 wouldn't allow it, presumeably because they would lose a fortune. Well, when the bookies are circumspect....

    I have never been this content.

    It'll all go wrong. I am not allowed to be this happy ;-)

    It can't last, can it?

  12. Ipsos-Mori Scottish subsamples

    SNP 54%
    Con 20%
    Lab 13%
    Green 9%
    LD 4%

    I am reading that right, aren't I?