(Click to enlarge.)
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Poll of Polls : the long-term trend towards Yes - now in graphical form!
Huge thanks to Sandy Brownlee for providing this graph, which offers a visual accompaniment to the Poll of Polls long-term trend figures that I posted yesterday.
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So the crossover is around September 2015
ReplyDeleteUgh
You're correct that there needs to be an acceleration in the trend, but not a huge one. If it does happen, the most likely time for it is after the end of the May, which is when the broadcasting guidelines kick in and we should start to see more neutral coverage.
ReplyDeleteGraph needs a minor adjustment on the bottom scale to correct the timeline.
ReplyDeleteI should also add, of course, that we shouldn't exclude the possibility that the Poll of Polls is underestimating the Yes position anyway. YouGov and Ipsos-Mori are increasingly out of line with "the norm", and yet they're still being factored into the figures.
ReplyDeleteWho'd have guessed that Excel would do silly things with the axis? I've fixed it now - should be on the same link.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Sandy - I've replaced the image.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about the 'trend' is that there's no reason why it should continue at the same rate. It might speed up, slow down, reverse. There's no 'physics' behind the trend, it's just the change in peoples' opinion so far.
ReplyDeleteSo, no need to be dismayed at the extrapolation to September 2015.
The thing about the 'trend' is that there's no reason why it should continue at the same rate. It might speed up, slow down, reverse. There's no 'physics' behind the trend, it's just the change in peoples' opinion so far.
ReplyDeleteSo, no need to be dismayed at the extrapolation to September 2015.