The third in the new series of UK-wide polls conducted by the Canadian firm Angus Reid Strategies for PoliticalBetting.com continues to show remarkable stability in its Scottish subsample. Labour has extended its lead over the SNP from five to eight points, although that still falls well short of the fifteen-point Labour lead for Westminster seen in yesterday's full-scale Scottish poll for the Telegraph. Here are the full figures -
Labour 33% (+1)
SNP 25% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+5)
Others 8% (-)
On one point these figures are in absolute agreement with the Telegraph poll - in placing the Conservatives on a dismal 18%. The spectre of a majority Conservative government taking power with perhaps as few as one or two seats in Scotland - which many people in their heart of hearts thought was impossible - appears to be moving a little closer with every passing week.
Still, if Electoral Calculus is anywhere close to right that comes out with 12 seats, a substantial increase over 2005.
ReplyDeleteSurely, everyone knew that the SNP would be squeezed for the GE. But that's still a very healthy increase and doesn't even go into what will happen at Holyrood.