GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov):
Reform UK 28% (-)
Labour 21% (-)
Conservatives 18% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 15 (-1)
Greens 10% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Reform UK 19%, Labour 16%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Conservatives 10%, Greens 3%
That's yet another stellar result for the SNP, and although Labour are several points higher than last week, that's not a genuine recovery, it's just sampling variation caused by the huge margin of error. The more subsamples that show Labour well below 20%, the more likely that's where they actually are, which is a catastrophic position for them to be in.
There's been a commenter on this blog who keeps reacting to these subsamples by saying things like "another disaster for the Greens, they're on course for wipeout next year", but that's not really the case. The subsamples are specifically about Westminster voting intentions, and there's no reason to doubt that the Greens are still polling much higher on the Holyrood regional list, which is where their true strength lies.
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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER: I'm currently seeking an alternative funding model to keep Scot Goes Pop viable for the future. Plan A is to turn it into a video blog (although there might be exceptions to that over the coming days because I may be on buses and trains quite a bit), and if that doesn't work Plan B is to move across to Substack or something similar. However, it's probably going to take several months before I even begin to find out whether Plan A is workable as a funding model, and during that lengthy transitional period I desperately need to get the current fundraiser as close as possible to 100% funded just to keep the show on the road. It's currently 70% funded. Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far. For anyone who would like to donate (and remember small contributions are just as valuable as larger ones), card donations can be made HERE, or if you prefer, direct donations by PayPal are also an option. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
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Encouraging to see KC's location remain just south of Buckinghamshire.
ReplyDeleteBut the SNP won't deliver independence. They have no desire, no standout talent. No hope of 50%+. Just a depressing bunch of colonial administrators. Sad.
ReplyDeleteYou seem like a joyous soul. The type who lights up a room... by leaving it.
DeleteSwinney's motion must be amended, we agree on this.
ReplyDeleteBut as a side effect, every poll since the announcement of the motion has the Greens going backwards
There haven't been any full-scale polls since the motion was announced. No polls for two whole months, in fact.
Deleteanother disaster for the Greens, they're on course for wipeout next year
ReplyDeleteEncouraging for the SNP and although it is a subsample it is in line with the Yougov sample as far as the SNP is concerned. I think both Labour and the Tories face wipe out in Scotland.
ReplyDelete