GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 6th-7th July 2025):
Reform UK 26% (-)
Labour 24% (-)
Conservatives 16% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-1)
Greens 11% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 40%, Labour 20%, Reform UK 17%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Conservatives 5%, Greens 4%
This is the second consecutive YouGov poll to have Reform's GB lead over Labour at 'only' two points, and although there can't be any direct link, it somehow seems in keeping with the latest evidence of the age-old truth that every party led by Nigel Farage always starts disintegrating after a period of time. If you ever feel bored, a fun game to play is "guess how many Reform MPs there are today", because the number is never what you think it is. At the moment, as far as I can see the answer is four, even though they started off with five last July and have since won an extra seat at the Runcorn & Helsby by-election. At one point I thought it was pretty likely that Reform would overtake the SNP as the fourth-largest Commons party during this parliament due to defections, but that seems a lot less probable now. If anything, the SNP may be at greater risk of being overtaken by the Corbyn/Sultana party-that-is-not-yet-a-party.
The SNP's excellent run of subsamples continues with a rare instance of them breaking the 40% barrier, and with double the support of their nearest challenger. Although YouGov structure and weight their subsamples correctly, the small sample size means any individual subsample must be treated with a dose of salt. But an average of several correctly-weighted subsamples over a period of time will give you a better idea of the state of play, and that average is looking pretty healthy just now.
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Why is Declan not punching the air?
ReplyDeleteAnon at 12.52. Why are you such a wee sad sack?
DeleteThis deserves more than a mere punch of the air. Breaking the 40% barrier means Declan is upstairs having some quality 'me time'.
DeleteWhy are you disappointed?
ReplyDeleteAn Alba/Wings person just died inside.
ReplyDeleteThere goes ANY chance of John Swinney and the SNP making independence a prority, other than to name check it in order to keep the sheeple onside long enough to fill Holyrood with grifting MSP's
ReplyDeleteYet another supposed indy supporter having a go at the SNP. The nearer the election we'll get more of this stuff. Anas Sarwar says thanks.
DeleteIs Gordon C a Labour-Conservative councillor masquerading as a disillusioned former SNP voter?
DeleteNB. Not worth the effort. We see through you.
Yet another pair of supposed indy supporters having a go at somebody having a go at the SNP in the hope they'll get back to INDEPENDENCE.
DeleteIf they were ditch they wouldn't have a leg to stand on. No pun intended m'lud!!
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney's period as leader of the SNP has been good in the polls.
ReplyDeleteAnybody in Scotland who doesn't want their own political parties and representatives in government can only be British/English/UK, or working for them
ReplyDelete