SNP storm to a belter of a Broxburn by-election win

The straws in the wind yesterday about Reform UK performing extremely strongly in the Broxburn by-election, both organisationally and in terms of voter response, made me wonder if they were getting close to outright victory territory. So it's something of a relief to discover that, for now at least, they're still stuck in the strong third place zone.

Broxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh by-election result on first preferences (13th March 2025):

SNP 31.8% (-10.1)
Labour 29.2% (-0.4)
Reform UK 18.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 7.5% (-10.2)
Liberal Democrats 5.3% (+1.6)
Greens 4.3% (-0.1)
Alba 3.1% (+1.7)

The percentage changes above are measured from the 2022 local elections, but there's actually been another by-election in the ward since then, which Labour won.  So that's an indication of how the weather seems to have turned back in the SNP's favour, albeit partly by default because Labour have become so unpopular since taking power in London.

That said, the SNP came extraordinarily close to losing yesterday's by-election on transfers in spite of their decent lead on first preferences.  They held off Labour by just seventeen votes on the final count.  

Assuming a uniform swing, the result is consistent with a small Scotland-wide SNP lead over Labour of around three percentage points.  (In reality, opinion polls suggest it's likely to be better than that.)

The Tories continue to suffer more than any other party from the Reform surge, which is logical enough.  There must now be a very real chance that they will slip to fourth place (or worse) at the Holyrood election next year.

Alba can console themselves that their vote has gone up rather than down, but this result isn't really any use at all to the Alba leadership, who need a vote of 6%+ in by-elections to try to hypnotise their members into thinking they're on course for list seats next year, which they clearly aren't.  However, just a word about the Alba candidate Frank Anderson, who as anyone who has encountered him will tell you, is one of the rapidly dwindling group of decent people in the upper reaches of the party.  He's an elected member of Alba's Appeals Committee, and at my own appeal against expulsion in January, he stood out a mile as literally the only person on the committee who seemed to be taking his responsibilities seriously and carefully weighing up the evidence in front of him (or lack of evidence), rather than just unthinkingly rubber-stamping whatever the leadership wanted.

Mr Anderson is currently standing for Local Government Convener in Alba's internal elections.  Although my horrific time as an Alba member is now mercifully over, all of us who care about decency and high standards in politics will be wishing him well - not least because his opponent is Chris Cullen, who exemplifies the absolute worst of machine politics.

I'm actually in this photo (at the top, towards the left). You've gotta love Josh - he's basically advertising his election campaign by saying "And here I am posing with just *some* of the people I've expelled as Disciplinary Chair. Chris told me to and I said 'sure, baby!'" https://t.co/MM9WYaplTV

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) March 13, 2025