I've been awaiting the first GB poll since the Trump v Zelensky showdown with a degree of trepidation, because that incident has at least temporarily caused the London media to fall back in love with Keir Starmer. It's been a rare opportunity for a British Prime Minister to pose as a figure of genuine international significance (and of course the same is also true for President Macron in France and Chancellor-designate Merz in Germany). Labour strategists have been briefing the media about how Starmer has just had a "Falklands moment" that will turn the domestic political situation upside down - that's a bit of a stretch given that any British military intervention is still hypothetical, but nevertheless I did wonder if Labour might get a moderate boost in the polls. As it turns out, the new YouGov poll shows only a small margin-of-error increase for Labour, which I suspect Starmer's people will be very disappointed with.
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 2nd-3rd March 2025):
Labour 26% (+2)
Reform UK 25% (-)
Conservatives 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-2)
Greens 9% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 32%, Labour 21%, Reform UK 16%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Greens 6%
This breaks the remarkable sequence of four consecutive YouGov polls showing a Reform UK lead. However, in all of those polls the lead was either one point or two points, so even if public opinion had remained absolutely static, it would have been statistically inevitable that the sequence would be broken before too long due to the margin of error. My guess is that the increase for Labour may actually be real on this occasion, but it's tiny and the obvious question is "will this be as good as it ever gets for Starmer?" He can't expect the kind of generous coverage he's received over the last few days to occur very often.
And just as an aside, it's a bit troubling that Starmer's strategists seem to have the mindset that cultivating military confrontation with Russia is a legitimate tactic to improve Labour's domestic popularity. Russia and the UK are both nuclear powers, albeit with an enormous mismatch in Russia's favour in terms of the number of nukes each country has. It would, I'd suggest, be a bit of a shame if the population of this country was wiped out due to an ill-conceived attempt to bolster Keir Starmer's net ratings in Survation polls.
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SNP 32%, Labour 21%, Reform UK 16%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Greens 6%
ReplyDeleteThis is remarkable.
You'll need to explain that.
DeleteIn what way? That's fairly typical of recent months.
DeleteIt is, Reform UK seem to have come from nowhere. How did that happen?
DeleteThis has been going on for months, it's not unusual at all.
Deletewe need an "argentinian pilot in a skyhawk" moment
ReplyDeleteYou are Brian Spilei and I claim my 5 pre-mined Bitcoins.
DeleteSwinney and Forbes are the Maverick and Goose of independence.
ReplyDeleteGobbledegook.
ReplyDeleteHalf the population outright support independence.
ReplyDeleteSNP has a solid third of electorate support. Never seems to go below.
Quick poll. Do you think a man can be a woman? If your answer is YES then INDY is fucked!
ReplyDeleteStop lying
DeleteStop lying.
ReplyDeleteReform-supporting troll Anon: I've deleted your comment. It was homophobic, it was Islamophobic, and it made a highly offensive (and inaccurate) comment about me. Surely to God you must have realised I couldn't leave it up. I have no particular problem with you posting here, but you're going to have to rein yourself in a bit. 50% of your comments these days contain some sort of inappropriate personal comment about me, and that alone will be enough to get you deleted, but the racism and homophobia just isn't on. Go on, I challenge you: see if you can be supportive of Reform without being racist and homophobic. Is it actually possible?
ReplyDeleteAaaaaaand after that reply you're no longer welcome to post here. Take it elsewhere in future.
DeleteOh and there was nothing homophobic or Islamaphobic about my comments you angry man. You are angry because you know I make points to which you have no answer.
ReplyDeleteIf your comment wasn't Islamophobic and homophobic, then NOTHING is Islamophobic and homophobic. I have no need to get into an argument with you, because you live in a multicultural society, and for someone with your hateful views that must feel like punishment enough. Suck it up - and find another blog to post on in future. Bye.
DeleteLet’s see how the polls pan out my friend.
DeleteHave you any comment to make on the Bibas children?
Oh well done, you remember their surname. Now tell us the names of the thousands of Palestinian children murdered by Israel since October 2023. Shouldn't take you more than a few months.
DeleteAnd that response just sums up your ignorance.
DeleteI know. Once I mature into the sort of human being you are, I'll realise that Israeli lives have 5000 times the value of Palestinian lives.
DeleteAgain you show ignorance. I recognise that you can’t afford to change your view. But appreciate that those of us who have humanity will do everything to stop people like you.
DeleteGood man. People like me who believe that Palestinians are human must, indeed, be stopped at all costs. I mean, if the genocide stops, where else are you going to find your entertainment?
DeleteYou are misguided in your view my friend. I suspect you have a malignant character streak.
DeleteThe Rev is trolling you James.
ReplyDeleteNah, he's not creative enough for that. Even when he poses as a woman, the Stu Style is unmistakeable.
Delete