I was initially puzzled by the poll reported on the front page of The National today, but it turns out that it's the Scottish component of a GB-wide MRP poll. The full sample size of the poll across Britain was just over 5000, which may mean the Scottish sample was around 500, which would be about half the size of the typical sample for a full-scale Scottish poll. But MRP polls don't always have evenly spread samples, so it may not be as simple as that. I'll see if I can find out more when I have more time.
The poll is billed as having been conducted by "PLMR / Electoral Calculus". PLMR is some sort of communications outfit and is not a member of the British Polling Council. Electoral Calculus is a member of the BPC, but I'm not aware of it having the capacity to carry out its own polling fieldwork, so it would be interesting to know how the fieldwork was sourced.
The vote intention percentages are fairly typical of what we've become used to recently, albeit with Reform's surge reaching the point where they are now closer than ever before to overtaking Labour in Scotland (unless you count the inaccurate numbers from the recent Find Out Now poll that were reported by the Herald).
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 a couple of weeks ago, and so far the running total stands at £1251, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised. If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE. Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Ffs, how can the SNP be on just 31% when they’re the BEST political party on these islands by a country mile, and in John Swinney we have a leader admired the WORLD over.
ReplyDeleteThese polls are ABSOLUTE PISH!
Au contraire! Ce sondage prouve à quel point Swinnet est monté en flèche avec le Parti de l'Indépendance!
DeleteLes sommets vertigineux de l'économie politique écossaise sont à jamais occupés par le seul et unique parti de l'État radical. Vive la révolution !
Afternoon Anon Doppelganger Dummies.
DeleteStill posting yer 10th rate skitter, eh?
Still..........they do say "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery".
Cheers, Cretins!
Which one is the REAL David Francis?
DeleteThe one whose name appears in blue and who is abusive and offensive to everyone else.
DeleteCertainly not a very pleasant character.
DeleteYou can always tell it's me when I call you naughty words, because I’m real manly, like. Dinnae you doubt my toxic masculinity, or I'll get upset!
DeleteYou can tell it's me because when I'm livid, I could squeeze the life out of a marshmallow. And do.
DeleteSo that means there are now three posters on SGP who trash polls and are “ polling deniers “, KC the unionist, Dr Jim the Nicola lover , and the fake David Francis. Small qualification on that statement - it is possible the fake David Francis is just posting that to try and wind up the real David Francis. You know the same approach Declan takes with ifs.
DeleteA bit like your last sentence then!
Delete424 anon It’s IFs- I claim my prize.
DeleteI claim anon at 6.20pm is anonymous in his own household and is obsessed with me.
DeleteInteresting sets of figures. Reform are not yet fully organised in Scotland yet and seem to be steadily eroding Conservative support. There is no rush for them GB wise to reach the tipping point..slow and steady
ReplyDeleteReform have the rest of the year to refine their Scottish appproach. Once that is in place expect them to come for the SNP vote.
The tipping point may come if Reform approach 35 points. The MSM will have a close idea on who feeds them. 35 points for Reform may encourage some to break ranks.
MSM have seen Trump with is gov efficiency and how that could impact their funding. It a strategic risk if they keep backing the wrong woke horse!
Their young, handsome, energetic new Scottish branch leader will take Reform up a notch in Scotland. He just needs to serve out his notice at his current general secretary job first.
DeleteWas he in a BMX gang in the 80s?
DeleteReform to refine their Scottish approach. Lol I can imagine it, dress up like Harry Lauder, grovel before Trump when he arrives at Prestwick, and of course tell a'body "I'm a Proud-Scot-but"
DeleteIf you can't picture Trump and McEleny shaking hands, with shit-eating grins, you're not trying hard enough.
Delete"Welcome tay Scotland, Mister President. We love you! You're the best! Och, aye."
Lol.
Delete'Trump/gov efficiency'
Keep taking the pills, Dummy.
Ths US and Israel are now THE top two PARIAH STATES.
The Orange Blimp is a Convicted Criminal Man-Baby who honestly thinks he rules the Planet and his wee pal Musk is a genuine megalomaniac who thinks he can buy his way to power without any mandate whatsoever.
Shredding International Law with his 'plan' to remove all Palestinians from Gaza so he can build Trump Riviera, is the very epitome of that White House Wanker's mindset.
Not really surprising that cretinous halfwits like you support Human Dross like Trump.
For a UkGE poll I assume under 18’s have been ignored from the totals. So Scotland wide will be higher for SNP.
ReplyDeleteFind out Now, Scottish sub-sample (117); Con 10%, Lab 18%, LibDem 14%, RefUK 18%, SNP 39%, Green 9%.
ReplyDeleteRefUK are neck-and-neck with Labour.
Encouraging Scottish sub-sample showing that SNP being well led.
DeleteThanks James. I feel that the SNP are on 31% only because they are seen as the best of a bad bunch. For me they've still got massive amounts of work to do before HR 2026. And Branchform still projects a shadow over them.
ReplyDeleteOn Reform they really need a good performance in Wales and Scotland. If they achieve that then they'll be the darlings of the media from then until the UKGE.
I do think however that if events in the USA turn sour and nasty (which seems a realistic possibility) then many folk who might dabble with Reform will recoil. Hopefully
But the SNP are not on 31% are they? this poll failed to include age difference 16+ year old polling in Scotland which will add at least a further 8%
DeleteSo best of a bad bunch? no, in truth a return to the only party in Scotland that is actually Scottish and doing it right rather than the terrible mistake made voting Labour which is now proving buyers regret a real thing
Didn't you know that Salmond's branchform strategy hasn't worked, Nicola Sturgeon has entered and passed SNP vetting process and will be back, and as John Swinney has stated "I am very comfortable with that"
Delete"this poll failed to include age difference 16+ year old polling in Scotland which will add at least a further 8%"
DeleteIt's a Westminster poll, so 16 and 17 year olds can't vote even in Scotland. But it wouldn't make anything like an 8% difference even if they could. 1% at most.
Anon2:20, If Sturgeon is coming back, let's hope she turns up at Holyrood this time as she's been almost invisible for 18 months. She has plenty of spare time to go on tour with her 'friend' Big Val.
Delete2.18 pm. “ a further 8%.” just why do you think posting a lie helps independence it just helps unionists like KC. The real David Francis said the SNP were the best of a bad bunch.
DeleteTalking about liars you can always rely on Dr Jim at 2.20 PM to include at least one in his posts.
IFS your weekend has been ruined again lol
ReplyDeleteIFS can console himself listening to his Bobby Crush LPs.
DeleteAre you punching the sky again, Declan? We know how that ended last time.😄
DeleteIFS is raging again, glory days the SNP is back baby.
DeleteGo and actually prove him wrong by calling Indyref2 in 2026 then.
DeleteThe SNP bobbing up in the polls like a floating jobby is not to be confused with Scottish independence. Just so you know.
The grand alliance of Alba, ISP and NSP will get us a referendum !
DeleteHow many seats are you predicting now Declan? It was in the high 40s for Westminster!🤡
DeleteThat poster Declan only seems to come on SGP to troll ifs. Declan is the jobby who stinks out SGP with his infantile and inaccurate comments.
DeleteDeclan stinks because he is still trying to get the egg off his face from his nonsense forecast re SNP MP numbers last July.
DeleteI have no idea who Clayderman and Crush are and have no intention of finding out.
DeleteFormer flings you've had maybe?
DeleteSNP doing well is a consequence of now having a steady hand on the tiller, compared to recent turbulence John Swinney is doing well.
ReplyDelete“ Turbulence “ for goodness sake is the SNP an aircraft now. Make up your mind - if you cannot tell the difference between a vehicle, a ship and an aircraft your comments do not have much credibility. Most 3 year olds can manage that.
DeleteShips come within the meaning of vehicle. Even a three year old knows that you silly billy.
DeleteWater can be turbulent.
DeleteMaybe the fringe albanists who were in the snp and left were the ones causing the undermining?
ReplyDeleteToo wee. Too extreme. And far, far, too consequential.
DeleteAlba have only ever existed to bring down the SNP
DeleteIt failed
I mean The SNP got 47.7% of the Constituency vote in 2021... how likely is that in 2026?
DeleteWe will find out in 2026. Meanwhile your Alba dream is well and truly fecked. It’s just lying there, legs akimbo.
DeleteSNP actual current polling properly adjusted is closer to 40%
ReplyDeleteIf at this midway point before 2026 elections those numbers continue on this trajectory, do the maths
"If those numbers continue on this trajectory"
DeleteIn general, numbers don't. (Look up Reversion to the Mean.) That kind of thinking works wonders for bookies and other markets, though. You should buy some stock!
TBF, it wouldn't surprise me if the SNP stays on top—reduced from the pre-Humza days, but still ahead of the rest—all the way through to election day in 2026. That's the blessing of incompetent rivals. As the old test-pilot's quote goes: "It's better to be lucky than good."
DeleteReform, though, they're a threat. "On this trajectory" they'd be dominant soon enough. They won't, but they could well settle a good bit higher than the conventional wisdom would like.
Encouraging poll.
ReplyDeleteIt’ll be good to see a poll putting the pro Indy share of the vote above 40% though.
Here’s hoping soon.
I'm going to be opening up about my battle with election fatigue on the Andrew Marr Cavalcade on Sunday. Tune in and listen to me leaning into my prevailing emotions.
DeleteFor a while in 2013/4 the SNP seriously challenged a key aspect of prevalent neoliberal ideology - the centralised, unitary ( despite the smokescreen of devolution to partly conceal it) state. As a consequence establishment lackeys of all parties and none concentrated their fire on YES/SNP and just managed to avoid disaster by 55/45 %.
ReplyDeleteSince then Corbyn was seen as a similar, English based, threat and smashed by all and sundry in favour of the compliant, toadying Starmer. The SNP meanwile purged itself of 'dangerous radicalism' becoming, at the top at least, a faux independence party.
Reform (sic) poses as a radical alternative to the serial failure of neolib tories and Labour while actually having nothing but, fascism enabling, froth and venom to offer. If they get into UK government their economics will fail and they will seek to sustain themselves by driving more and more people crazy with scapegoating of minorities for all of Farage's incompetence.
Self determination for Scotland is truly radical in the modern UK context and, when linked with a mildly social democratic "well being" economic approach, can actually offer a bit of hope for the majority of our people - but only if it is pushed forward successfully !
An incoming Farage government will understand this enough to turn on us in a British version of Trumpism.
We must not let this happen. Just maybe the SNP can regain its courage and proper priorites. Anyone who believes that it can be done should rejoin the party and get on with political renewal quickly. Those of us who think that the odds are against that working should build the non party campaigning groups. The two strands need to grow up from 'Ya Boo..' insults on blog threads and work together.
Time is short !
“Time is short “ it certainly is Alt Clut. I just don’t understand those people who on the one hand say we should not rush independence but also warn us of the impending doom (Farage etc ) coming down the track very shortly.
DeleteWe have had 10 wasted years which ended with Nicola getting indyref2 declared illegal and now they want to drag their feet until Farage makes independence itself illegal.
Is that a plan for Scottish independence!
Indyref2 was not declared illegal. The court confirmed what most of us already knew. Under the relevant legislation S G could not hold an Indy Referendum.
DeleteAnon at 6.46pm - is it illegal under UK law for a Scottish government with a mandate to hold an independence referendum without Westminster approval - yes it is. Therefore, the claim of right of the people of Scotland is being kicked in to touch and who facilitated this. Nicola Sturgeon.
DeleteIs it illegal under international law - probably not. But we know that the UK / US bully boys care little for international law other than when it suits them.
Of course, if it was so obvious then why did Sturgeon keep saying vote SNP for a referendum that she couldn’t deliver.
England stole lands/ countries from all over the world and the thieves do not give up their stolen goods very easily. They pass laws to say it is illegal to take back your stolen goods. Trump is at it today just as Putin is. All thieving bastards.
Am I the only person who comments here who has actually bothered to read Reform's policies? If that is true, there are a lot of very lazy people here.
DeleteNo you are not! Will maybe expand later xxx
DeleteIt’s not just the parties though. Some of the other external pro Indy groups got away ahead of themselves. I don’t like the term Indy 2 as it reminds you of the failed independence referendum. No doubt various thoughts on this but how about we all coalesce for 1 big march in the summer? All independence parties but also all groups big and small.
ReplyDeleteScotland 1st, Self Government for Scotland, No more Westminster.
Scotland pro-European. We’re Back!
I am sure others will have their own ideas.
Marches like that are good for motivating the grassroots, generating positive energy etc... but what would we be getting people energised for?
DeleteWithout something tangible to put a coordinated effort into it's a waste of time. People aren't marching up a hill for hopes & wishes anymore. & the Yes movement needs considerably more than just a nice day out.
Too much other single interest attached to them, like save the planet, poverty in Paisley, woke in Slumberland. Bairns not bombs, EU, hate the Torys, probably Starmer, Farage and Trump next.
DeleteThey should just be Independence. Nothing else. At all. And no speakers anti-SNP either. Just Independence.
Totally agree with yesindyref2. Anon at 3.57pm you spoiled your post by adding Scotland pro European. Can we not just stick to independence. I mean how hard is that. Personally I'm not against Europe but plenty are.
DeleteI also agree with anon 5.22pm.
I'd love to go on a big march again. Nothing quite like it for morale.
DeletePro-EU please. 'Pro-Europe' sound like you have an affection for the political system in Belarus, Serbia, and Azerbaijan. The largest city in Europe is Istanbul. The second largest is Moscow.
DeleteWell, interesting article in the National: https://archive.is/iZq9X
ReplyDelete"A FORMER Conservative spin doctor has said he believes that John Swinney and Kate Forbes “could actually pull off indy”.
Andy Maciver, the former head of communications for the Scottish Tories, hailed the duo as “gold dust” and said the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could spell the end of the Union."
I rate the guy, probably the best columnist. He tells it as it is, and indeed, "Message Matters".
McIver's article in the Herald. Critics of the SNP will agree with some of it, "loyalists" would agree with other bits. The trick is to keep an open mind and be both. Much like the general non-activist electorate itself would do.
Deletehttps://archive.is/RpXCy
Yesindyref2 - you are turning in to a Swinney fanboy. I have posted before that idolising politicians never ends well. Look at the state of the likes of that extreme nicophant Dr Jim - mental gymnastics being required to maintain a saintly image of his Nicola. You are on the path to being the very first swinophant. It’s not too late to turn back.
DeleteAnd on another note, Jings it's all happening today. From National:
ReplyDelete"Rewilding
John Swinney rules out reintroduction of lynx or 'any large carnivorous animal'"
About bloody time too. We're not geared up for this touchy feely shite originating from people living in the tame New Forest down south; apart from the odd few farmers with shotgun licences.
Swinney has a sure touch and a steady hand, and made a great speech at conference.
And another before I have my tea "John Swinney says it’s ‘essential’ farms can be passed down through generations"
DeleteExactly.
I disagree wi indyref 2 .Scotland is one of the most nature depleted countries in the world. Most civilised European countries have retained or reintroduced mammalian predators such as lynx . The " keeper" mentality of shoot anything that might occasionally eat something that the toffs shoot is all pervasive in Scotland. Many of the big landowners encourage this attitude. Over grazing by deer is a major problem in our woodlands . Lynx eat rabbits and smaller deer species.
DeleteBiodiversity loss is something that will come back to bite us. If you don't understand this then learn some basic biology !
It's about time for Scotland to enter the 21st century. The need for such policies is one of the reasons that I support independence!
Alba gu brath!
I'm sure this is all very great for the childless flat-dweller on Hyndland Road whose exposure to the wild is limited to the occasional foray into Kelvingrove Park as a change from the delights of Byres Road and the wild life in Ashton Lane or Partick.
DeleteSwinney has got it right sucking up to the farmers. He is also right about not having wild beasts roaming about Scotland. McEleny is more than enough.
DeleteAgree Swinney got it right. In general his leadership has been marked by a steady hand.
DeleteHello Ifs, I asked you on a previous thread if you could explain to me what a “de facto “ referendum was and how it would work in practice, as it’s not something I’m familiar with.
DeleteI understand you’re probably a very busy man, but would be grateful if you could spare a few minutes of your valuable time to enlighten me.
Many thanks.
I doesn't surprise me that John Swinney and Kate Forbes are very much to a right-wing former Tory spin-doctor's liking (or Shell's liking or the Duke of Buccleuch's liking).
DeleteAnon at 8.01pm - look KC you know fine well what it is and false flattery will get you nowhere with me.
DeleteEncouraging SNP poll.
ReplyDeleteShows what difference a great leader makes.
DeleteAccording to the polls the SNP is flatlining on pretty much the same as they got in their disastrous general election result.
ReplyDeleteSwinney is, jist aboot , better than Sarwar and the rest of the unionists. But he kens nocht aboot Biology!
ReplyDeleteHe knows a lot about corporation-tax returns (and there are lots of sheep farmers in his constituency with lambies to rear and corporation-tax returns to fill in).
DeleteSwinney is good.
Delete