Labour 24% (-1)
Conservatives 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Greens 8% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 39%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 15%, Reform UK 14%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Greens 4%
I hate to disappoint our resident Reform-supporting troll, but in one key sense Reform are not AfD - they are not popular with the young. The poll shows just 9% of 18-24 year olds would vote Reform, compared to 30% of over-50s.
And in spite of the hype about Reform's breakthrough in Scotland, support for the party north of the border remains only half of what is being seen in both England and Wales. One very simple explanation is the continuing massive correlation between support for Reform and support for Brexit. Across Britain, 48% of Leave voters from 2016 are now in the Reform column, compared to just 6% of Remain voters - and of course in Scotland there are simply far fewer Leave voters than there are elsewhere in the UK.
Engerlandshire continues its mental decline...............
ReplyDeleteWhich we will suffer under, until our own leaders take action.
DeleteWhy don’t they?
When half the population still wants to be under that yolk, nothing i suspect
DeleteIt's almost as if Scotgov were somehow to blame for that…
DeleteNah, surely more of the same—bugger all—is the only way forwards!
The YouGov average, across seven polls, since the start of the year has been: SNP 35.4 (+5.4); Lab 18.4 (-16.9); RUK 17.6 (+10.6); Con 12.0 (-0.7); LDm 10.9 (+1.2); Grn 4.9 (+1.0).
ReplyDeleteThe GB average has been: Lab 25.3 (-9.4); RUK 25.0 (+10.3); Con 21.6 (-2.8); LDm 14.3 (+1.7); Grn 8.7 (+1.8).
In Wales: Lab 26.0 (-11.0); RUK 24.4 (+7.5); PC 21.0 (+6.2); Con 14.3 (-3.9); Grn 6.3 (+1.6); LDm 6.1 (-0.4).
If you don't want to vote for the cosy managerial pocket-lining consensus then Refuk is the only serious option just now.
ReplyDeleteOf course, once it gets it's hands on power, it will be quickly sucked into that consensus, just as the greens before them were and prove to be just as incompetent, likely more so. But for now, it is the main way to register dissatisfaction with incompetent managerialism on both sides of the border.
RefUK’s candidate selection criteria stresses an employment history of real world experience. Private sector over Public sector and added bonus points for being self employed or a business owner. Whether you support RefUK’s policies or not, their elected representatives are likely to be more technically competent than the Greens (citation, Ross Greer, meep meep!).
DeleteWrong.
DeleteFascists are the answer to precisely nothing.
Get a grip.
Ta.
The majority would say it’s you needs to get a grip Francis.
DeleteAnon 11.21 England calling, England calling.
DeleteAnon 12.26 majority of nutters.
DeleteYou vote to be positive not to support right wing racism such as reform.
DeleteAnon at 11.21. Bit transparent, no?
DeleteReform are not fascists.
DeleteDafties aye but fascists nah
Reform are Fascist Shite.
DeleteGreat to see that Scots are not supporting them in anything like the morons South of the Border.
Keep that English Nationalist Shite where it belongs.
What are is your opinion on immigration, David?
DeleteDavid Francis, you spout some serious bullshit!
DeleteTrying living in a real fascist country before spewing that rubbish
DeleteRefUK have a Nigel Farage shaped problem in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteIpsos, Political tracker, February
UK net favourability; Keir Starmer -34%, Nigel Farage -16%
Scot net favourability; Keir Starmer -25%, Nigel Farage -33%
The apparent collapse in the Labour vote in Scotland is spectacular to say the least. The SNP took a hammering in 2024 but still polled over 30% in Scotland, only 3.7% behind UK Labour nationally and Labour won an historic landslide...Weird world of FPTP.
ReplyDeleteIt's also interesting as the SNP have pretty much stayed around the same level in the polls, still massively down from the highs and popularity they used to experience only a few short years ago.
DeleteUnder normal circumstances their polling would be seen as being dismal... but Labour have managed to shoot themselves in the foot so spectacularly the unintended consequence is the SNP likely to achieve electoral success again.
"It's also interesting as the SNP have pretty much stayed around the same level in the polls"
Delete"Staying around the same level" seems to be code for "increasing by a few points".
"Under normal circumstances their polling would be seen as being dismal... but Labour have managed to shoot themselves in the foot so spectacularly the unintended consequence is the SNP likely to achieve electoral success again"
DeleteYou're correct and this is exactly what happened in England. Tory collapse, Labour vote hardly moved and boom, electoral success.
But the difference is the SNP vote has moved. So he is, in fact, not "correct".
DeleteBarely, they haven't moved much beyond the margin of error.
DeleteI'm sorry, but that's utter tripe. Margins of error apply to each individual poll, not to longer-term trends.
DeleteJohn Swinney has done a great job in terms of this opinion poll.
ReplyDeleteThe hope/expectation is that when campaigning begins for Holyrood 2026 SNP will make Independence central in its election aims. There is no real sign of that yet. There are some 500,000 votes waiting to be picked up. With a split in the right wing vote, and with targeted tactical voting, Indy could secure a strong majority. Is there anyone within the party able to seize the opportunity and turn away from the disaster of the last G E and secure a strong positive result in Holyrood next year. Forbes? And let’s see some confrontation. Use planning law and H and S legislation to stymie the grid development which will rob us of our renewably produced electricity and see it sent down south. That’s the hope. The fear is that SNP do SFA and the descent of Indy into an abyss continues.
ReplyDeleteAch, there's always Alba 😉
DeleteThe SNP will obviously do nothing. We know them for what they are now. All they're after is keeping their Holyrood seats, their Scotgov jobs, and the golden carrot of "indy tomorrow" to maintain their position indefinitely. Nothing will change that with the present cast in power.
DeleteBut as for the idea that there's a magic number of Holyrood seats for Yes parties that'll unblock the path to independence, when it was won by "strong tactical voting" like you said, meaning many fewer votes than the UK parties, well, do you need any more assistance with that problem?
Oh too be so negative. Who wants to be a britnat? Lower energy costs, look after waspi women, anti immigrants, pro brexits
Deleteits the hope that kills you
Deletesee the ibrox crowd
Anon at 1.34. Who suggested that there is a magic number? No one mentioned it except you. It’s a straw man.
DeleteAlright, 2:38, how does the seat number matter then?
DeleteI simply took the implied point (we all better vote tactically for Yes parties to maximise our overrepresentation in Holyrood because…) and put a sharper point on it.
But you're quite right, actually. Of course it achieves hee-haw. Just more cosy Devolutionists from our side of the aisle, and not theirs.
I very much doubt that Kate Forbes is against SSE and 'Scottish' Power selling their electricity. Quite the reverse, I think.
DeleteUpdate!
ReplyDeleteChristopher McEleny
58/100 nominations received
Across 20/20 Local Authority areas
Note: He had until Sunday to meet the threshold in order to be on the ballot.
The battle of the century, denied. What a disappointment.
DeleteIt’s almost as if bugger all anybody can even bide the man.
It's kinda funny.
DeleteNeale Hanvey met the threshold within 24 hours, Ash and Kenny met the same threshold for Leader within a day as well. Chris is only just over half way after a week.
What’s the threshold?
ReplyDeleteThe full 100/100 nominations across 20/20 Local Authority areas
DeleteNervous times for Mad Dog McEleny.
DeleteNo one actually cares. Alba are best ignored.
DeleteYou say that a lot, don’t you.
DeleteWas the 58 a blip?
Delete:)
It doesn't matter that Reform will likely do badly in Scotland, it's yet another English political party against independence lodging themselves in Holyrood
ReplyDeleteYet another English political party given all the media airtime and support against the SNP
That's the single reason anti SNP folk will vote for them, they don't care about policies because that's the only one that counts
Mind back when we were trying to actually win indyref? We made the case, or tried to, to everyone that would listen about what independence could do for all of us.
DeleteAnd it almost worked.
When independence isn’t being promoted, a lot of people are still firmly against it and vote accordingly. Swinney etc. would clearly rather talk about anything else under the sun, yet for good and bad Indy just won’t go away.
Failure to make the case is surrendering to the Britnat narratives you’re right to blame the media for keeping on the agenda. That’s why we are where we are: Scotgov is feart of Indy, but they can’t escape that’s the whole reason they are there. You just don’t get to be the SNP and pretend that Indy isn’t there.
Define "do badly"?
DeleteDespite not really bothering to campaign in Scotland yet the fact that they're on course to win a number of MSPs is remarkable.
As Reform are about the only credible protest vote, I doubt that they would appeal to many of the remaining SNP voters, who are probably staunchly pro-establishment (tartan version).
DeleteIncredible there are still some prattling on about independence!
ReplyDeleteWhen will the penny finally drop with these people that it’s over?
It's not over, and it never will be until it's achieved
DeleteSounds like World Peace.
DeleteAnon@3:31,
Delete🤣🤣🤣🤣
“…………… until it’s achieved “
You are a deluded brainwashed fool!
"Scottish subsample ...Liberal Democrats 10%": very encouraging polling for them, as is 16% GB-wide.
ReplyDeleteI can see a decent chunk of disaffected centrist Labour voters switching over to the LDs.
Alex Cole-Hamilton has shown a sureness of touch with the electorate.
DeleteHe's a fast bowler.
DeleteIs wings still hacked and compromised? There is a post about Independence and the possibility, or otherwise, of a referendum. Surely some mistake? Gender gender gender. Please send money to the rev.
ReplyDeleteWhat is certain is that the Scottish Tories are finished.
ReplyDeleteAnybody that seriously thinks independence is going to be achieved one day is even more deluded than a Nessie hunter!
ReplyDeletefarage has secretly gone muslamic and will make himself grand imam of the first english caliphate, to become the second state of a federal pakistan - small countries cannot thrive and need to be part of something bigger, like 1.5B muslims
Deleteinshallah