Yes 52% (-)
No 48% (-)
Obviously no poll showing an outright Yes lead can ever be considered disappointing, but there is one negative point here - there's been more or less no rise in the Yes vote since the previous Find Out Now poll in October. (I say 'more or less', because if rounded to one decimal place, the Yes vote has increased slightly from 51.8% to 52.3%.) That means this poll does not really corroborate the trend in the recent Norstat poll showing a big jump for Yes, thus leaving open the possibility the Norstat poll could yet end up looking like an outlier. That said, even at around the time of the previous Find Out Now poll, Norstat had Yes at 50%, which was an unusually high figure for that firm.
There's also a "settled will" klaxon to be sounded, because Find Out Now have been polling on independence for years, and all but one of their polls have shown a clear Yes lead. So if the Find Out Now methodology is broadly correct, the goal of a "sustained" Yes lead that the SNP sometimes talk about is not some kind of imagined future - it's what we already have in the here and now.
A hypothetical question in the poll asking how respondents would vote on independence if Nigel Farage becomes Prime Minister shows a whopping Yes lead of 60% to 40%. As has been well rehearsed recently, hypothetical questions do not necessarily produce reliable results, but I think this particular one may be in a slightly different category. Unlike Brexit, a Reform UK government wouldn't fade from view. Voters would be seeing Prime Minister Farage on their TV screens every day. The reminders would be endless, so it's entirely possible that a massive Yes surge would happen for real.
* * *
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The Jockhaggist extremists are very dangerous.
ReplyDeleteThree and whoops! How many!!!@#@£
DeleteEton College dunce speaks !
DeleteFind Out Now are clearly one of the YES-friendly survey firms: I believe they have published 10 polls on the Scottish question since March 2021 and they all have YES over 50% (once don't knows are excluded).
ReplyDeleteHowever, when rounded the last 6 polls (since March 2023) have YES registered at 52% so this firm is not picking up any change in support.
Like they would scoop out of mushy bit?
ReplyDeleteDo Find Ouf Now and Norstat both use 2014 Indyref Recall in their weighting process?
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping Farage continues to gain large support from English/British nationalist extremists in England. Confrontation between Scotland and England is needed.
ReplyDeleteYou mean confrontation between Scottish nationalists and England plus the other half of Scots.
DeleteMy word! Such a riposte. I expect you're a very clever person.
DeleteI just realised that the SNP are not Scotland. This could be a game changer.
DeleteYou aren’t very clever are you.?
DeleteHe/she isn't.
DeleteStill showing pro independence
ReplyDeleteStandard Indy Question asked by UK Polling company (based in Engerlandshire I believe).
ReplyDeleteTry harder.
Ta.
Lol.
ReplyDeleteDumb, insignificant wee Yoon, ignoring basic facts about a completely standard Indy Poll and desperately grasping at the next one.
Nice.
Also 60/40 to Yes if Nigel Farage becomes PM. As previously covered we know the issues with hypothetical polling but interesting to get an idea of how much of the public seem to be opposed in principle. A similar split to the YouGov poll earlier this year asking about support linked to EU membership and that Norstat one about a wellbeing economy.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely.
DeleteThe more that the Scottish voting public think about BrexSHITTY UK remaining outside the EU and the strong possibility of a Farage/Reform UK Govt, the more they turn to Scottish Independence.
We need to keep on pushing these narratives every chance we get.
Dave Francis spouting ever more bullshit!
DeleteYou REALLY don't matter, you irrelevant Yoon Tit.
DeleteHappy New Year, pal.
Dave Francis, a real Nat numpty.
DeleteThe earliest possibility Farage could realistically become Prime Minister is 2029. Is the plan to do nothing until then?
DeleteTry to keep current, sonny.
ReplyDeleteThree out of the last four Indy Polls have Yes on or above 50%.
Happy Holidays 👍
I see Pete Wishart is calling for a Constitutional Convention in the Scotsman.
ReplyDeleteIs that the same one Nicola Sturgeon announced in 2020 or the one the SNP Conference voted to happen in 2023?
As the panic spreads among unionists WOS has been given orders. 1100 words of misleading nonsense with very selective stats trying to rubbish recent polls and the upwards trend in Indy support. Campbell, up to his usual standards, labels readers of the National as intellectually retarded. He is stupid enough to think that putting another word in front of retarded makes it acceptable. It’s not, in any circumstances. And of course much of his post is just a personal attack on NS and a misleading rant about the gender issue. There is a delicious irony that when he uses the offensive expressions in the second last para of his article, he does so to try to describe the National and it’s readers, but in reality it describe his own blog and his own readership. Wonderful. 26 Holyrood elections. De facto referendum and let’s get on with the confrontation. Start with energy.
ReplyDeleteWoS is now the go-to for a collection of conspiracy nutters and so-called 'Yessers' who are as like to vote Unionist - particularly Reform - as anything else.
DeleteAnd, of course, plenty of genuine Yoonionists who find it a very friendly, pleasant place to be.
Campbell is now just a seething, directionless, hopeless and POWERLESS mess.
Sad to watch the descent of a once useful resource for Independence, into a fetid, festering cesspit.
Oops.
DeleteThe above post was from me.
It's a very good headline for the front page. It stands out and would make anyone think. It doesn't matter if there won't be a GE until 2029 and on this Campbell is allowing his prejudice to dictate his thinking which is indeed, intellectual, errrrr, diminishment.
DeleteHe does still do good articles occasionally; this wasn't one of them.
Campbell is an irrelevance, he just hasn't realized yet.
DeleteIf the fight is back on, he'll be there. And more powerful than before.
DeleteOh he'll be there all right. Campaigning for a No vote, just as he campaigned for Labour in July. He won't be powerful, though, people will be pointing and laughing.
DeleteI mean looking at literally any measurement Wings is considerably more read than this blog for example & probably is still the most viewed political blog in Scotland.
DeleteYou believe that? It’s not as he claims . A small group numbering at most a couple of hundred go onto his site multiple times daily, and he claims readership numbers using an utterly discredited methodology. That has been known for some time. It has been referred to on here. His principal talent is extracting money from the gullible. Credit where it’s due, he is very good at that.
DeleteAnon@5:18, You believe that? What evidence do you have for how many visitors to his site are 'repeat offenders'? Sounds very much like wish fulfillment on your part.
Delete"using an utterly discredited methodology. That has been known for some time. It has been referred to on here"
DeleteI have noticed whenever that's brought up those disputing it don't mention an alternative methodology or make any attempt to reveal what supposedly the true numbers are. Funny that.
It's also the methodology used in claiming this blog's readership
DeleteKeep dreaming Dave Francis.
ReplyDelete🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
As a general observation these recent polls have the Unionist activists in a right tizzy to use the language they'd use. They're attacking anyone who makes pro-indy postings or contradicts unionist ones on a regular basis.
ReplyDeleteDon't be fooled - they're not SNP, Alba or Greens, though they'd like you to think they are. They're cowardly false flags and I despise them - I don't have any problem with genuine unionists making their case.
Aye , indeed the Britnat unionists are in a richt "tizzy" . They will dredge up any silly anti-Scottish half truth to try to deny oor progress.
ReplyDeleteThey are feart!
Alba gu brath!
Absolute bull!
DeleteAn' fit's wrang wi being a male bovine? Kye are gey important tae oor rural economy !
DeleteAlba gu brath!
Ventilation is required for the little area to the rear of my room
DeleteMake it up.
ReplyDeleteYou appear to find making it up very easy. The past is exactly that. You live in it. No surprise there. Away and stick your tongue up Charlie boys erse.
ReplyDeleteHa ha ! You couldn't post properly!
ReplyDeleteAs Pete Wishart said:
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/eq1jQ
"the policy that we crafted was an amalgam of all sorts of different things and it ended up looking slightly absurd and I don’t think it had any real credibility with independence supporters"
but as he then said:
"This time around, we’ve got to get it absolutely right,"
I can't wait, can you? I bet you're wetting yourself!
An the Britnats still think their wonderful union will persist. Hoo wrang they are.
ReplyDeleteFool Britannia!
I think a very interesting hypothetical question asking how respondents would vote on independence, would be this:
ReplyDelete"If the SNP actually got totally serious about Independence and genuinely made it the only important policy, how would you vote?"
and include how definitely would people vote, as I think IF the SNP went Full Metal Jacket on Independence they'd get back the missing 500,000 voters. And probably a few more as well.
Unfortunately they're probably too scaredy-cat to ask that question, as they're running scared of the Unionist parties accusing them of campaigning for Independence - their actual reason for being.
Gwaarrrkk buck buck buck buck ...
Yi2- dismal. Still I’m sure your mammy thought you were awfy clever.
DeleteFalse flag Anon at 10:03 PM
DeleteThis was presumably funny in your head? Bearing in mind your recent off the wall comments we shouldn’t be surprised. Take some time away. Your contributions on here, poor at the best of times, are now simply rubbish.
Delete@Yi2 (who's a lot more interesting and worth replying to than you, wanker anon)
DeleteGood idea but beware of writing leading questions like our "Believe in Scotland" friend, Macintyre-Kemp. If he believed a little more in Scotland, he might have the confidence to take his finger off the scales when he's polling!
I'd try to word such a question more like:
"If the SNP promised to declare Scottish Independence if they win the next election, how would you vote?"
Simpler and no wiggle room for them to slither out of. "Well, we wrote a very sharply worded Section 30 request…"
Anon at 7:55 AM
DeleteYes, my question isn't well phrased - it'd need someone like SGP to put it together. Your question is more straightforward than mine.
This just made IFS spew out his supper lol
ReplyDeleteIt’s surprising your parents let you stay up this late at night.
DeleteFalse flag Anon at 9:26 PM
DeleteGood poll, think we are probably sitting just over the 50% mark of the flawed eligible electorate able to vote on Scotlands future, many of whom never will have Scotlands best interests at heart.
ReplyDeleteOn that topic. I received a copy of Alf Baird Doun Hauden for Christmas. It’s essential reading for everyone concerned with moving our will from wish to reality
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Doun-Hauden-Socio-Political-Determinants-Scottish-Independence-ebook/dp/B086ZTRXM8
"many of whom never will have Scotlands best interests at heart"
DeleteIf they live here then of course they'll have Scotland's - and therefore their own - best interests at heart. It's just a question of them working out what IS in Scotland's best interest - and for that to be Independence. Hearts and minds; hearts and minds.
I hear you, YI2, and that's the way we should still address them. It's important to be magnanimous when winning hearts and minds.
DeleteBut we shouldn't delude ourselves that any amount of appealing to their better angels will overcome their own allegiance to England, to which Scotland is just the extension to the Lake District. Not everyone who lives here is aligned with Scotland's best interests, not by a long shot. Let's not waste our time squeezing stones.
Scots are Scotland.
Lets be honest: Most people don't give a shit and will vote purely based on what they believe benefits their own self interest and the money in their pocket.
DeleteIf you can convince people that they will be financially better off via independence they will vote for it. Your average Joe on the street prioritises that over any supposed loyalty.
False flag Anon at 4:28 PM
ReplyDeleteThe conundrum, the movement is pretty much split into two camps.
ReplyDeleteCamp 1: The SNP in Government are the only viable path to achieve independence. We need to keep voting for them & hope they can be changed from within to reprioritise independence. It will take too long to build up any kind of alternative and if the SNP lose power independence will be for all intents and purposes dead for the foreseeable future.
Camp 2: We've been voting SNP for independence for over a decade. We've been marched up the hill countless times with indyref2 supposedly being just around the corner but then never materialising. We literally had the best circumstances we could ever have dreamed of: Brexit chaos, Boris Johnson, countless Westminster scandals but all were squandered.
I'm tired of being misled, I'm tired of my vote being taken for granted and I'm fresh out of "hope". If the SNP want my vote they'll need to work for it, just "keeping the dream alive" or spouting nonsense that a UK Government will eventually give in because reasons won't cut it. They need to be bold, anything less then I won't be voting for them again.
So you clearly know what you are going to do. Not much of a conundrum for you it seems. Welcome to Farage land. Supporting Indy is now treason.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the same results as a poll in 2014.
ReplyDeleteNext year Upland Sheep Farmers and Laundrette Workers for Yes will be dead, dead, dead for 11 years. The marchy march people gave up a couple of years ago as the last gasp. The polls are unchanged and the bald man with spectacles goes forth, specular in his non-existence.
ReplyDeleteI’m sure that made sense sitting in your single room alone.
DeleteI suppose that as last years independence campaign hinged around a bit of paper about Corporation tax and no-one read it because it was shite, in 2025 it will be loft lagging. Independence = insulation.
ReplyDeleteAfter the GE humping, when the SNP lost 39 of their 48 Westminster seats, it’s quite comical to see some Nats still going on about independence.
ReplyDeleteYou’d have thought they’d at least have had the sense to put it on the back burner for a bit.
Dear oh dear.
You seem to struggle with the basics of the electoral system and it’s vagaries. Perhaps you will cover this in third year at school. Meantime I heard your mum tell you to tidy your room. Get to it silly boy.
DeleteAnon@9:55am,
DeleteA Nat living in complete denial, unable to accept the “dream” has died (it died in 2014).
Anon at 8:52
DeleteSo............after the Yoonionist Parties were TOTALLY humped in the 2015 GE, when SNP won 56 of 59 WM Seats - all the subservient, cringing wee Yoon-Tossers like you stopped talking about their 'precious union' and 'put it on the back burner for a bit'?
Don't remember that happening, pal.
Because it didn't.
Grow up.
Stop embarrassing yourself Francis, by continuing to spout utter nonsense.
DeleteThe Dave Francis character seems to have rather a high opinion of himself.
DeleteLol.
DeleteAnon Yoon Tossers @ 11:23 and 11:34 -
Do you share the same, solitary wee neuron, or is it on its Christmas Holidays?
The latter, I think.
Dumb and Dumber, eat yer heart out.............
Dave Francis accusing others of being tossers!!
Delete🤣🤣🤣
Ye really couldnae make it up!
Anon at 10.03. Gosh. All the evidence indicates the opposite. Silly billy boy. I see the queen thought your lot were a shower of vankers. Deliciously funny. Away and play with your wee flute.
DeleteI did think that the Yes movement was a Colgate ad but it did all disappear about one week after the 2014 referendum, unlike my brighter whiter smile. The dusty blogs are interesting bits of history for wankers.
ReplyDeleteThe queen thought you and your ilk were arseholes out on your wee marches. She got that right. Away and wipe yourself.
Deletehttps://youtu.be/rU9f04Zo-nE?si=lggdsiZtsT6qb6N0
ReplyDeleteTakes one to know…
ReplyDeleteAnon at 8:51, 52 and 58 ... Have you calmed down now after your wee tantrum?
ReplyDelete