Conservatives 27%
Labour 25%
Reform UK 22%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 9%
SNP 3%
This of course isn't the first opinion poll since the general election to show the Tories in the lead - across all firms, it's actually the fourth, and there was also another one that had the Tories and Labour exactly level. But what we haven't seen before is a poll that combines Labour in second place with a very small gap between themselves and Reform UK, opening up the possibility that they could soon slip to third place.
It may seem paradoxical that both the Tories and Reform UK are prospering at the same time, because under Kemi Badenoch, the Tories have never before converged so much with Reform UK in policy terms. But remember that 27% isn't actually a good showing for the Tories - it's only enough to put them in the lead because Labour are polling so catastrophically.
As I've said before, an extremist right-wing government won't need to actually be elected before the likely prospect of an extremist right-wing government starts to move the dial of the constitutional debate in Scotland. How do unionists sell a country that may soon have a Prime Minister Badenoch? How do they sell a country that might even soon have a Prime Minister Farage, or a Deputy Prime Minister Farage?
I'd love to see the seat projection. (And no: not Electoral duffing Calculus!)
ReplyDeleteLabour's vote is highly concentrated in urban pockets, which usually works against them in FPTP but does give them a higher floor than the Tories. It's quite plausible, at least, that Labour would come first in seats even from third place in the popular vote.
And that Reform could end up with a dozen MPs on a quarter of the vote.
DeleteWhat is an extremist right wing government. Perhaps a government who knows what a women is or a government that says that there is too many illegal immigrants here that we don’t know who or what they might be. If that’s right wing extremism count me in. WTF has happened to some common sense in the west. Captured by extreme left wing ideology. See 2 can play at that game
DeleteI agree that that would be possible. Politically I think that theres a high chance thatvwould be seen as a stake in the heart of FPTP. Farage would call his followers to protest as would the Sun, Mail, Telegraph and GBeebies.
DeleteUnfortunately, James, there is no natural law that says Scotland itself can’t lurch to the right also. I wouldn’t bank on Scotland not either supporting Farage, another English figure like him, or producing its own.
ReplyDeleteWhen did Scotland last lurch to the right? It's barely happened within living memory. Whether you call it a 'natural' law or not, it's certainly an observable phenomenon - Scotland is consistently less right-wing than England.
DeleteHistory isn’t destiny. Until recently Sweden was predominantly left politically.
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