West Fife & Coastal Villages by-election result on first preference votes (28th November 2024)
Labour 33.2% (+0.7)
SNP 33.2% (-2.7)
Conservatives 16.1% (-1.0)
Liberal Democrats 8.6% (+1.9)
Greens 4.6% (+0.5)
Independent - Morton 2.4% (n/a)
Scottish Family Party 2.0% (n/a)
SNP 33.2% (-2.7)
Conservatives 16.1% (-1.0)
Liberal Democrats 8.6% (+1.9)
Greens 4.6% (+0.5)
Independent - Morton 2.4% (n/a)
Scottish Family Party 2.0% (n/a)
On raw votes, Labour topped the first preference poll by just two votes (881 to 879) - there's no way they would have been expecting it to be that tight. The swing from SNP to Labour was a miniscule 1.7%, which remember is measured from the baseline of the 2022 local elections, when the SNP were still more than 12 percentage points ahead of Labour nationally. So if the by-election result is extrapolated nationally, it would point to an SNP lead over Labour of around nine points.
As you'll have seen, there was actually a swing to the SNP in the other by-election yesterday. If the two swings are averaged, they come to a 0.6% swing to the SNP, which would suggest that the SNP are around thirteen or fourteen points ahead of Labour nationally.
Yeah, just read that. Here's an interesting thing:
ReplyDelete"Reform 'aim to be kingmakers at Holyrood' in 2026 elections"
https://archive.is/yjMKk
I reckon from previous council by-election transfers that hacked-off SNP voters might be as much as 1/3rd of Reform's supposed support - as a protest vote. So the thought of putting Sarwar into power might focus their minds - vote Reform in 2026 as a protest and get Sarwar, abstain - or even vote SNP again with the nose stuck in a chanty?
Sorry, I should have quoted this bit:
Delete"REFORM UK are aiming to be the “kingmakers” at the Scottish Parliament election in 2026 – and would vote for Anas Sarwar to become first minister rather than John Swinney, party deputy leader Richard Tice has said."
Obvious they would back their fellow Brits.
DeleteThe real pity and wasted opportunity here is that Reform is Brit Nat. The least productive place for scunnered Yessers to go of all.
Where’s our Reform!?
Looks to me like snp has a solid floor of about 30%.
ReplyDeleteLabour thought they had one, too, until 2015. Play your voters for fools and they have a way of suddenly opening up the floor from right under you.
DeleteSorry I don't think it's a good thing btw.
DeleteKeeps them alive in a zombie state which half of the MPs will be quite happy with but moves independence not an inch
That’s the purpose of the party, once they relieved themselves of Salmond: jobs for the boys and nothing but the same old carrot for the voters.
DeleteThey’re as likely to win back Scotland’s independence as the Lib Dems these days.
IFS absolutely raging at these results today. The SNP have proven that they are back as the main party in Scotland. This has just ruined IFS weekend 🤣
ReplyDeleteVery impressive haul of hee haw seats you won there, Declan. Forward to independence!
DeleteI don’t understand this comment. How have the SNP proved they are the main party in Scotland?
DeleteAlso how do you know it has ruined somebody’s weekend? Did you ask IFS if that was the case? And why are you laughing .
All very confusing. Can you explain please?
Hi, KC. And to think people doubted me yesterday when I pointed out it was you!
DeleteHi anon, you are a very determined person but you are wrong. I’m not this KC person. Can you explain why you think I am KC. I may be able to put your mind at rest.
DeleteOops sorry again I forgot to add my name. Is that why so many just post as anon? They just keep forgetting.
DeleteYup, very happy to explain, "Robert". The reason I know you're KC (well, one of many) is that "all very confusing" is one of your favourite catch-phrases. Hope this helps.
DeleteRobert Hastie, I wouldn't waste time trying to understand Declan's comment - he is completely deranged and is no doubt 'punching the air' in his Mum's attic.🤣🤣🤣
DeleteWhy is somebody convinced Robert Hastie is KC, when clearly he’s not?
DeleteEven IFS, who’s judgement is particularly poor, isn’t on wrongly accusing.
Hi, KC.
DeleteAnon at 3.38pm - you tell me where your judgement has been good and my judgement has been poor. Back up your comment.
DeleteI don't know about Robert Hastie but I am happy to say Declan Skier is Scottish Skier and he is a lying SNP/WGD propagandist. He may well be deranged as well.
Hi Ifs, I’m the anon at 3:38.
DeleteWell I’ve seen you yourself wrongly accusing somebody of being kc.
Does Robert Hastie”s posts look like kc to you? They sure as hell don’t look like kc to me.
Don't you recognise your own writing style?
DeleteAnon at 4.57pm The Hastie posts at present do not look like KC imo. Just how do you know I wrongly accused someone of being KC - are you KC ?
DeleteIs this the hunt the KC blog now?
You never gave me an example of where your judgement has been good!
I don't understand what's going on. Nobody's getting royal favour.
DeleteHi again ifs,
DeleteWell there you go again! Indeed I’m not KC! Many thanks for proving my point though.
Well my judgement is certainly better than yours in spotting a kc post.
Anon at 5.52pm - the only thing you have proved is your poor reading ability. I never said you were KC - try reading it again. I asked you a question - how do you know I wrongly accused someone of being KC? Note the question mark - it looks like this?
DeleteAre you the anon who keeps saying Robert Hastie is KC? Tells us your secrets for identifying KC - that should be a laugh.
For goodness sake ifs, try keeping up! Or are you just taking the p***?
DeleteI’m the one who’s pretty certain Robert Hastie IS NOT kc. You actually agreed with me on that earlier.
Personally I think the anon who’s doing this is a troll and wind up merchant, just on here to cause confusion.
Thank you for replying both anons.
ReplyDeleteA catchphrase is something game show hosts use like Bruce Forsyth. Remember him you young people. I think it was ‘ it’s nice to see you, to see you nice’. Sorry anon but you have latched onto something and got the wrong end of the stick. I just hope this KC doesn’t use that phrase as well or you will be back saying I told you so.
Thanks for the tip anon about the deranged Declan. I’ll stay well away in future from
deranged Declan. I’m surprised Mr Kelly allows a deranged person to post on his blog. I can only assume Mr Kelly wants to allow a wide range of people to express their opinions, even deranged Declan. I wonder if Deranged Declan has a pal called Abnormal Ant. Sorry my poor attempt at a joke.
Oops sorry again my last post is in the wrong place. Must have clicked on the wrong reply. A silly newbie mistake.
DeleteLovin' the newbie banter, KC.
DeleteI noticed Mr Kelly says “I don’t accept I’m in Declan territory” so I guess that is code for him confirming Declan is deranged.
Delete