Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Carlaw left with nowhere to go, as new Scottish poll reveals a severe lack of confidence in London's handling of the crisis, and almost total backing for the Scottish Government's approach

The BBC have a policy of never commissioning voting intention polls - and they don't really report on other outlets' voting intention polls either.  (The latter is a relatively recent development - I remember when I was growing up there used to be a polling round-up every night on the news during general election campaigns, but at some point it was decided that was too much of a distraction from the issues.)  It's become increasingly rare for them to commission polls on any point of political controversy at all, so when they make an exception it's not unreasonable for people to ask: why now?  Or even: what are they up to?  I've heard some suggestions that the new BBC Scotland poll on the handling of the current crisis by the Scottish Government and the UK Government was commissioned with the hope of getting bad numbers for the Scottish Government, or at least to produce the headline that "the two governments are as bad as each other".  That may well be too cynical - it may have been commissioned with a totally open mind.  However, BBC Scotland do have a track record in recent years of crusading campaigns against the Scottish Government (most notably on the NHS), and no equivalent campaigns against the UK Government - in spite of the fact that we're always being reminded that "Scotland has two governments".  So perhaps a touch of cynicism can be forgiven.

Whatever the motivation, though, the poll turned out to be dreamland stuff for Nicola Sturgeon, and nothing short of catastrophic for Boris Johnson and the Tory government in London.  55% of respondents in Scotland think Johnson has handled the crisis badly, and only 30% think he has handled it well.  The numbers for the UK government are broadly similar - 51% badly, 34% well.  Those are extraordinary findings at a time when governing parties all over the world are enjoying a polling boost due to the 'rally around the flag' effect.  What makes it even worse is that the fieldwork for the poll preceded the Cummings controversy, so in all likelihood the numbers in a poll conducted now would be far more dire for Johnson.

By contrast, the Scottish Government's handling of the crisis enjoys backing that is as close to total as you'll ever see in any poll.  82% of respondents feel that Nicola Sturgeon has handled it well, and only 8% think she has handled it badly.  For the Scottish Government as a whole, the figures are 78% well, 11% badly.

The Scottish Tories have been trying to chip away at the Scottish Government by criticising any divergence from London, on the grounds that it causes "confusion" - but the poll leaves no room for doubt that such a line of attack is completely misconceived.  An overwhelming 81% think Scotland should come out of lockdown at a different time from the rest of the UK if deemed necessary.  And on specific measures where there is already a divergence between London and Edinburgh, public opinion strongly favours the more cautious Scottish approach - there's clear opposition to the reopening of non-essential shops, and to the reopening of schools before summer.  

The vast majority (70%) think that lockdown didn't happen soon enough.  That can be seen as a criticism of both governments, although from the other numbers it's reasonable to infer that London is taking the lion's share of the blame.  (And rightly so, given the Scottish Government's limited legal powers until late March.)

The obvious lesson is that the Scottish Tories would have been far better advised to stick with a national-unity-at-Scottish-level approach.  They could have portrayed themselves as part of a cross-party 'Team Scotland' and demonstrated that they are not merely a branch office of a London party.  Instead they've let themselves become associated with a deeply unpopular London policy, while being seen to be opposed to a wildly popular Scottish policy.  From a strategic point of view, it really doesn't get much worse than that.

46 comments:

  1. "From a strategic point of view, it really doesn't get much worse than that."

    Not if your strategy is to get yourself a sniff of ermine.

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  2. The Scottish Gov were doing the same as the UK Gov. Taking old folk from hospital beds to care homes and death. If the Scottish Gov think that is good then I prefer to die at home.

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    Replies
    1. The UK gov is finished.

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    2. 63,800 dead according to the Financial Times.
      Second highest in the world.
      The second covid spike, the "Boris Spike", expected early June.

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    3. Should be called the BJ spike.

      #cumgate

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    4. Scottish Nutt Ziss in power in Holyrood. Sent old folk to death. Boris does not run Scotland the Nutt Zi party do.

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    5. Bojo the clown killed more than Pennywise.
      UK is over.

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    6. The first Covid-19 spike was the Boris spike, a result of the take it on the chin, let the virus move through the population policy.

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    7. I have seen this complaint in a couple of places. I am not sure what the issue is. Should the UK hospitals have kept the elderly who were otherwise recovered from whatever took them to hospital in the first place thus blocking beds or return them to their homes (actual home or care home)? With thousands of CV19 patients coming into hospital keeping them in hospital doesn't seem safe. If they had been kept in hospital and the bug got into a geriatric ward the same critics would be demanding to know why these otherwise well people were still in danger's way on the front line.

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    8. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 27, 2020 at 10:53 AM

      HandandShrimp - spot on comment. The key point is that the care homes needed to keep them in isolation when they returned.

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  3. Of course James, there are no Scottish Tories in Holyrood, they're British Tories and they demonstrated that quite clearly up until Scotland answered back then they Uturned in a rapid effort to save themselves and their fragile seats realising they were going to be dead meat at the 2021 Holyrood elections

    The Douglas Ross resignation was comical in its predictability given he only had around a 500 vote majority to win his seat

    Dobson Kerplunk struggled manfully not to buckle but in the end he hopes to see out his time till retirement and pension so thought the better of it seeing as how he's expecting a Tory wipe out next year anyway so what's the point, plus Johnson doesn't even know who he is so keep the head down and sit it out

    FMQs tomorrow should be a hoot and a half with Michelle Ballantyne as the last Tory standing holding the tattered and blood soaked Union banner, there'll be Tories wishing their desks were higher and their seats were lower

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    1. Scottish Nutt Zi party cleared hospital beds the oldies were in. Oldies died in their safe homes, they were expendable. Legal murder.

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    2. And Douglas Red Card Red Card Ross jumping before he was pushed no doubt. His precarious 513 majority of Postal Votes. Oh he broke the rules but the EBC wont tell us that.

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  4. Last weeks great plan by Carlaw was the resignation of the Health Secretary, suspect that will be on the back burner now, unless he wants the chamber in hoots of laughter.

    He'll want to attack to try and regain some sort of credibility, but the options for him look slim.

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    Replies
    1. Enjoy their hoots of laughter when people are dying due to Nutt si policy.

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    2. Covidia doesn't like it when its Tory overlords are laughed at. Staunch.

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  5. Scottish Nutt Zis in usual denial over death of their citizens. It woz the English that done it. Wee knickerless was on holiday in Irvine.

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    Replies
    1. Covidia obeys its hypocritical Tory overlords. Staunch.

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  6. I get deleted all the time on Wings however young James deletes me occasionally. Fat boy slim is clearly on a mission to challenge the Brit Holyrood States.

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    Replies
    1. The Wings comments have slowly been destroyed by some like you, either state assets or conspiracy theorists that have found their pandemic homeotherapy guru that tells us to water down all this lockdown nonsense.

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    2. Wings has and is being destroyed by Stuart Campbell, he controls Wings he can delete comments or let them stand, the facts are that Campbell invited his blog to end up the way it has because he's an extraordinarily revolting little man who is unable to control his bitterness towards anyone who doesn't massage his massive self centred ego

      Campbell is an unimportant egotist who allowed the one time popularity of his blog to go to his head believing that the people who read it liked him more than the cause he professed to support

      When he decided to dump that cause for another one he became even more bitter because the world refused to agree with him
      now he has his reward as the courts agree with most sensible folk and have deemed him to be more abjectionable than Kezia Dugdale, and for anyone who knows Kezia Dugdale to sink lower than her is an achievement in itself, so for that at least Campbell should be proud

      He's been found guilty of being Scotlands slimiest person ever, maybe he'll start a crowdfunder for a trophy for himself, I'm sure there'll be the usual mugs who'll send him money

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  7. Incredible to think that by this time next week the Tories will have killed more Brits through incompetence and dimwittedness than the Nazis did by throwing everything they had at the UK during World War II.

    Tory voters should be banned from flying the union flag as they insult the dead.

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    Replies
    1. I think he is a 5th columist instaled by MI4,5,6,or 7.

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    2. Nah. Covidia's too dense to find anyone to pay it for its screams of impotent rage.

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  8. Great poll results for Sturgeon and the SNP.

    I can see GWC's not happy, which puts a smile on my face.

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  9. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1265410670075445249

    Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    10h
    Dominic Cummings...

    Should resign: 66%
    Should not resign: 17%

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/public-opinion-hardens-against-dominic-cummings-fjz8jrxph

    Boris Johnson suffers poll slump as Dominic Cummings revolt grows

    ..A YouGov survey for The Times shows the Conservative lead over Labour cut by nine points in a week. Support for the Tories was down by four points, to 44 per cent. Labour added five points to 38 per cent compared with a week ago...

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  10. Britain Elects
    @britainelects
    ·
    23 May
    Public opinion of...

    Boris Johnson:
    Approve: 45% (-1)
    Disapprove: 39% (+3)

    Keir Starmer:
    Approve: 47% (+5)
    Disapprove: 17% (-1)

    via
    @OpiniumResearch

    Chgs. w/ 14 May

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  11. Things not looking so good for Boris in the polls now. Keir Starmer more popular.

    Where's Dominic Cummings when you need him.

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  12. At this rate, Labour might be starting to fancy their chances of reclaiming second place in Scotland next year.

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  13. Labour cannot look forward to a brighter future until they deal with the gunpowder barrels they still have to deal with. As soon as they start to look good the media will light the fuse to keep the Tories on top. Starmer's start has not been that good in the party as he has not dealt with the issues around the leaked report well, instead concentrating on trying to catch the whistle-blower.

    Can someone tell me where this poll result is please, I cannot find it on the BBC website.

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  14. To the person impersonating me: if you don't pack it in, this blog will cease to be your playground very shortly. I have no idea which troll comments are yours and which are other people's, so I'll simply have to delete every single non-serious comment and starve you out that way. Your choice.

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    Replies
    1. If you include GWC, you've got a deal.

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    2. Is this a way to get rid of GWC? Tempting!

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    3. I second that, folks! And good riddance.

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  15. Can't wait for politics to be able to turn to normal so Jackson can get torn a new one by showing up his utter hypocrisy in complaining about things that have been much worse in England.

    The FM obvious has to play a subdued hand at this stage because its a national crisis, but it was good to hear her reminding opposition leaders today that its hypocritical to 'demand action' on things that happened in March or April when they didn't pass comment at the time

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  16. Can someone tell me where the BBC poll result is please, I cannot find it on the BBC website?

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    Replies
    1. Here you go:

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52795997

      Delete
  17. Here is the MORI article with tables etc

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/four-five-scots-say-nicola-sturgeon-has-handled-coronavirus-outbreak-well

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  18. Firstly; your cynicism is easily excused, but I'd say it is correct. I seen a post on Facebook which spelled Dominic as Domaniac Cummmings again appropriate I thought.I did have a seperate point to make but in my enjoyment it has slipped my mind.

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  19. ScottytheScotinScotlandMay 27, 2020 at 3:46 PM

    Today's main attraction is UK Tory Chief Adviser Dominic Cummings.

    Tomorrow's forthcoming atraction is another Chief Adviser based in Edinburgh.

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  20. I suggest that people watch Résistance on the All 4 player. It's impressive and moving in its own right, but it kind of explains why people still listened to Henriot (for which read BBC in Scotland).

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