Monday, December 9, 2019
So the mystery of the YouGov independence poll has been solved - it wasn't the same poll that gave the SNP a 44% to 28% lead over the Tories. It was, as Britain Elects said, a later poll that was conducted between the 3rd and 6th of this month. The headline voting intention numbers have been blanked out in the datasets, but the unweighted numbers are there, and don't look radically different from the earlier poll in respect of the SNP v Tory battle. 347 unweighted respondents back the SNP in the new poll, compared to 359 in the earlier one. The number of unweighted respondents backing the Tories has only increased to 215 to 228. So if I was going to hazard a guess, it would be that the weighted numbers will show the SNP lead has fallen by somewhere between two and four percentage points, which would still leave them with a decent enough lead of 12-14%. However, there may have been a significant Labour recovery - the number of unweighted respondents backing Labour has jumped from 107 to 159.
Posted by James Kelly at 6:41 PM