Friday, September 6, 2019

Carlaw is crestfallen as YouGov polling suggests the Scottish Tories are heading for a COMPLETE WIPEOUT

It's very early days with this, because I'm not sure if this is just a subset of wider GB polling, and therefore I don't know if the sample size is credible.  But there appears to be a YouGov poll confined to the seats currently held by the Scottish Tories, producing the following results...

Voting intentions for Westminster (YouGov, respondents in Scottish Conservative-held constituencies only):

SNP 42%
Conservatives 30%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Labour 7%
Brexit Party 5%

On a uniform swing, that would mean the Tories being wiped out completely in Scotland, although the seats currently held by John Lamont and David Mundell would be virtual dead heats.

Does this contradict this week's full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov suggesting the Tories would, on a uniform swing, cling on to three seats?  Not necessarily.  The Tories outperformed their 2017 national result in the seats they gained, so it's entirely conceivable the pendulum could swing back the other way and they could underperform their national result in those seats this time.  The Lib Dem vote also looks relatively modest considering we're talking mostly about rural seats, so perhaps some Lib Dem supporters are willing to vote tactically for the SNP to get the Tories out.

If I was a betting man, though, I'd still say the SNP have a mountain to climb in the two Borders seats.  Everywhere else the prospects are reasonably rosy.


  1. According to the Herald: "A total of 887 Scottish adults were questioned between August 28 and September 4. "

    Wrong figure to be a UK wide poll and it also says: "The polling, which was conducted exclusively in Conservative-held constituencies across Scotland"


    1. My immediate reaction on seeing the figures was, "Where has the Labour vote gone to?". Even by recent standards, 7% is very low and 30% for the Tories is on the high side of recent polling.

      However, if it was indeed polling in the 13 Tory held constituencies, then the figures are more plausible and the question turns to, "Where have the Tory votes gone to?"

      Brexit Party does not seem to have gained many, the LibDems are, perhaps, up a little, Labour is about what might be expected in such constituencies. The sum of the figures is 96%, leaving 4% unaccounted for - Green?.

      So, has the swing been to the SNP. All of these constituencies, apart from Mr Mundell's, were held by the SNP in 2017 and, in some, for a number of years before. So, have some of these 'historic' voters returned to the SNP?

      Given the age profile of Conservative voters, it is possible that some have died and with more young people becoming eligible, and being more favourable to Europe and independence, this has elevated the SNP vote.

      However, having had a Calvinist upbringing, optimism and happiness are to be avoided!

  2. Sometimes you do get what you deserve in politics.
    Not one of the 13 "Scottish" Tories ever rebels against London.
    The only thing that fires them up is their vehement opposition to their own country's independence.
    Our day is coming. But theirs is too.

  3. This is from a full size poll of the 13 seats as yesindyref2 has already mentioned.

  4. Being able to crowd their money into only 2 seats in close contests out of all of the previous Tory seats is a tactical advantage for the SNP.

    A free idea for a campaign poster from across the pond... JR Moog stretched out in his now infamous picture showing disdain for democracy. Below that, the slogan "Independence Now!" Below that "Vote SNP!"

    1. Nah, use the slogan "Sit up straight and listen to Scotland" under Mogg's picture.

    2. Being able to crowd their money into only 2 seats in close contests out of all of the previous Tory seats is a tactical advantage for the SNP.

      It doesn't happen though. We don't see any money flooding in here from SNP HQ. We didn't in 2015 and we didn't in 2017. I don't know if the next one will be any better.

      It's all down to local activists, who are thin on the ground relative to the safe SNP seats, getting on their shoes or their bikes or in their cars and slogging up farm tracks delivering leaflets that often aren't targeted for a basically Tory-voting electorate. Given the size of the constituencies and the area that has to be covered and the remote location of quite a lot of the addresses, the rate of leaflets delivered per activist-hours is significantly less than in urban areas.

      We run street stalls in the towns and the larger villages (that's one town and one village of ~1500 people in this ward). Canvassing realistically only happens in the towns.

      We did it in 2015 and we did it in 2017 and no doubt we'll do it again whenever we have to. But I will literally faint with shock if we see a penny extra help from HQ or a single extra pair of feet coming in from a safe seat to help. Meanwhile we hear about David Mundell being ferried around the constituency in posh cars, glad-handing the locals. We see a ton of Tory propaganda coming through our letter-boxes, and it's not Tory activists putting it there, it's paid-for delivery services.

      Don't for one minute run away with the idea that SNP HQ is going to pour a single penny into the Borders seats.

  5. How about "Better Together?"?

  6. Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. I'm glad you removed that comment. It was disturbing.

  7. I'm not sure which of the 13 I'd most like to see being ditched. There's about half a dozen I've never heard of, and doubt if anyone else has. Of the remainder, their departures will be a good reason to uncork the champagne.