Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Paging Carole Malone: Sorry, Carole, but every single opinion poll this year has shown that support for independence is significantly higher than 45%

I literally can't even force myself to watch the now-notorious clip from the Jeremy Vine Show, in which Princess Diana's former butler, a former Page 3 girl and a tabloid rentagob were invited to speak about Scotland via a direct video link from the 1860s.  However, I've read the transcript provided by The National, and apart from the fact that Paul Burrell still doesn't seem to understand the difference between independence and devolution, what leapt out at me was this piece of nonsense from Carole Malone, which went uncorrected by the programme's hosts -

"Every time they do a poll it says that the figures now for staying within the union are higher than they were at the time of the referendum."

What is it about opinion polling that makes people feel entirely comfortable in making something up that they would like to think is true, go on television and present it as fact, and then have it go completely unchallenged? And yes, Fiona Bruce, I'm looking at you. In this case, Carole Malone's claim is not only untrue, it's the opposite of the truth. There have (inexplicably) been only four polls this year that have asked the standard independence question, and every single one of them has shown that support for independence is now significantly higher than the 44.7% recorded in the 2014 referendum. Here they are...

Panelbase, April 2019: Yes 47%, No 53%
YouGov, April 2019: Yes 49%, No 51%
Panelbase, May 2019: Yes 48%, No 52%
Panelbase, June 2019: Yes 49%, No 51%

If you look at the list of polls on Wikipedia, you'd get the false impression that there was also a fifth independence poll this year conducted by Survation using a "non-standard question", which supposedly showed a much bigger No lead.  In fact, that wasn't an independence poll at all - it was a propaganda poll commissioned by Scotland in Union which asked respondents about whether they wanted Scotland to "leave the UK", rather than whether they wanted Scotland to become an independent country.  "Leaving the UK" covers a wide range of possibilities of which independence is only one.  Others include becoming part of another existing state, or becoming a self-governing dependency like Jersey.  However, even if you include the Survation poll as an independence poll (and you shouldn't), it would still be the case that four out of five polls this year have shown Yes support at higher than 45%.  So Malone's claim is completely untrue no matter which way you look at it.

Incidentally, it's not even the case that Malone's claim used to be true but no longer is.  Although support for independence appears to have increased markedly over the last nine months or so, a clear majority of polls conducted over the entire period between September 2014 and now have shown Yes at 45% or higher.

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I've been meaning to mention that I was interviewed down the phone on IndyLive Radio last week.  You can listen to the show on catch-up HERE - the bit with me starts at just after the 2 hour mark.

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2019 Scot Goes Pop Fundraiser: This is Day 27 of the fundraiser, and so far £8020 has been raised. That's 95% of the way towards the target figure of £8500. A million thanks to everyone who has donated so far, and I'm also extremely grateful to all the people who have left a kind comment with their donation. You can visit the fundraising page HERE.

64 comments:

  1. So the PoP average for a plan-free snap iref held first thing tomorrow morning is 49% Yes, and from two of the least Yes friendly pollsters.

    No wonder London is looking to just end democracy and introduce English/British nationalist fascism (no Section 30). Doesn't look like the union can exist through free democratic will much longer.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Another panic comment from skier. Brexit looming soon as both candidates are committed to leaving. The Jocks know England is their big market for trading goods. Scotland is just a wee icicle on the fringe of the Herman/Frog run EU and with no influence. We have a Scottish Parliament and MPs in Westminster. Maybe half a dozen MEPs in Europe. The Scottish people would equal less than a district council, representation in the EU. And yet there is enough greedy Jock Nat sis who for their own personal gain would abandon their people.

      Delete
    2. Do your homework. Scotland is right now represented as a region in the EU with just 6 MEP's. This is because we are a region/province of the UK which is the member state.
      As a member state we'll have 15 MEP's.
      The EU is open to small countries. EnglandUK still thinks it's an empire.
      Time tae GTF out of it and join the real world.

      Delete
    3. As an Irishman, I'm very much enjoying my country's 'powerless' position in brexit negotiations.

      We'll be keeping the north thanks!

      #Backstop

      :-)

      Delete
    4. Gwc - England is heading to be a hermit kingdom ran by Boris with 24-7 reruns of Dad's Army, Jim'll Fix It, and the Black and White Minstrel Show.

      Delete
  2. Did you contact Wikipedia to remove that pol.?

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  3. ramstam, 15 Scottish MEPs, well fook me with a shovel mick that will rock the EU corrupt Mafia big style. Might even sort out the increased suicide rate in Scotland since the Nat si Tartan Tories came to power.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are a sick man.

      Suicide rates were falling from 2000 onwards.

      They began rising in 2016.

      https://www.scotpho.org.uk/health-wellbeing-and-disease/suicide/data/scottish-trends/

      This was 9 years after the SNP 'came to power'.

      Delete
    2. Jings, The Scottish Nat sis are in power since 2016 and their budgets propped up by the pretend Socialist Nat si Greens. I am very sane and observant. You skier are a flannel merchant and not surprising as you claim to be from the right wing Conservative Ireland. The UK Tories are pretty left compared to you lot.

      Delete
    3. The smaller states in the EU have 150 votes, including the middle sized states that is over 360 votes. More than all the big countries combined. Neither France, Germany, Italy or Spain gets to boss anyone around. Which means Scotland will in a group that protects their common interests and prevents their exploitation. Unlike now where England dominates and ignores Scotland's economic interests casually and gleefully.

      Yes it is sad that pro unionists seeing ultimate defeat have chosen to kill themselves. Did they not consider moving to England and joining in the reconquest of the British Empire promised by Brexiteers and Nigel Farage?

      Delete
    4. Robin of LocksleyJune 27, 2019 at 7:14 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    5. Scotland has no say what soever in westminster.

      Delete
  4. Time to consider that the established position of the "status quo" is approaching collapse. Once pro independence opinion is consistently over 50% of the population it will become the widely accepted reality. I watched the Scots go through an earlier stage of this between 2010 and 2014. People realised their private opinion was much more widely held so the SNP advanced rapidly. The 45% already existed and merely needed to be expressed. The last few years has been the fight for the centre ground.

    I think a symptom of the final unionist collapse will be individuals supposedly loyal to the UK considering their future and defecting to the independence side. Something of this happened in Ireland, Norway and even in my own Lithuania, where Communist party officials defected. Have any Scottish based ones defected yet? They might be middle level people because the bigger names are all focused in London leaving remote control drones in Scotland. In the USSR the so called national representatives in Moscow remained loyal to the Soviet government well after Independence was declared and even as countries began recognition.

    Still today we have Soviet loyalist and ethnic Russians eagerly awaiting the return of Moscow rule. You will have a Unionist hardcore who will for decades into the future attack Scotland in the expectation of an English reconquest.

    Just ignore the hardcore Unionist do not reply or converse with them there is nothing to gain. You will waste time and be drawn into trading nasty insults. As you say "Keep ra heed". Fundamentally the next independence referendum is a different question. There are people who are willing to vote YES now who for them it was still the right choice to have voted NO in 2014. Do not argue the old question you lost accept it. Focus on the fact that the UK they thought they were voting for no longer exists.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Hunt (spelled with a 'C'), compared the EU to the dictatorial UK Union because the former won't let member states leave freely by issuing them a Section 30.

      https://news.sky.com/story/foreign-secretary-jeremy-hunt-compares-eu-to-prison-of-soviet-union-11513718

      Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt compares EU to 'prison' of Soviet Union

      No wait, I'm confusing my unions. No, he's confusing them... Och you get what I mean.

      Delete
  5. Poor Carol Malone always appears to be so overwrought and worked up that she can't help dribbling out rubbish. I'm loath to recommend tranquillisers, but maybe decaf would be a start to getting her into a more balanced state.

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    1. Poor skier dribbling at his bitter Irish mooth. Over two million Scots voted to remain in the British Union. Real Scots not your imports who sponge of the state and constantly moan about their hosts. Stand on a block of ice and do it slowly paddy me bhoy.

      Delete
    2. Yer 2 million is doon tae 1.77 million now on average.

      May well be less as Panelbase and Yougov tend to find more in your favour.

      Getting tight!

      Delete
    3. Robin of LocksleyJune 27, 2019 at 12:08 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    4. Carol Malone kent fine she was lying in claiming rising support for NO.
      Her lies were broadcast with no opportunity for rebuttal.
      Accident or design?
      In my experience the views in this programme are commonplace among the more rabid brexiteers.
      Scotland has the optimum size population for our natural resources. England's expanding population means it needs to hang onto Scotland as it stupidly leaves the EU.

      Delete
  6. I see there is another article on the BBC about the question asked in any future Indyref .They definitely are trying to push this Remain and Leave thing .I don't trust the Brits.
    Part of the reason Westminster has got into a pickle over Brexit is that the term Leave meant different things to different people Did it mean leave the single market and or custom Union?
    James is totally spot on Scotland leaving the UK could mean one of several things that's why Westminster wants the question.No doubt on a Leave vote they will raise question about crown dependencies etc .You really did not want to leave the common defence area in other words Trident staying on the Clyde as You didn't vote to leave the UK single market or Oil revenues are property of the crown.
    The Yes No question has no dubiety Yes we want an Independent nation and our Parliament in Edinburgh to be sovereign

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  7. Skier, if you are Irish why are you interfering in Scottish politics?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's the only reason French Mrs SS votes too; so she can cancel out your vote.

      Delete
    2. You cannot cancel out a vote. I am not a pissed off kind of person. But it gives me pleasure watching you Nat sis been pissed off. 2014 was the best and your violence in George Square afterwards was a sight to see.

      Delete
    3. If you vote Naw, and them my wife votes Yes, then you might as well have stayed at home. It's really simple maths.

      Think of it like this. No and Yes are on 50% and just you and my wife are left to vote.

      You vote No, giving No 50%+1, so putting them ahead. Then along she comes with her stripy jumper + ring of garlic bulbs and votes Yes, taking away that +1 and putting both sides level again. She cancels out the effect of your vote.

      Delete
    4. I could vote yes provided we keep out of the EU. That would upset your math calculation. Is your wife a man!

      Delete
    5. Robin of LocksleyJune 27, 2019 at 6:04 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    6. Well, the unionists say we'll be chucked oot the EU if we vote Yes GWC, so, time tae join us!

      We winnae mock ye like the folks on Jeremy Vine's show dae. Yer wan ae us.

      Delete
    7. Your master Murdoch has a say in every country. Why can't he?

      Delete
    8. Skier, I am not Irish or French.

      Delete
    9. That was my Scots side talking.

      They were 'cafflics' BTW. It's my Irish side that are 'proddies'. I understand this sort of thing is important to you.

      Delete
    10. Actually not. I am neither prod nor pape. Although keeping them from political influence is certainly a priority. Some of my ancestors were Irish and proddie but their ancestors must have been papes. The natural progression of history. SCOTTISH NAT SI ISM is a step back in history and will not end well.

      Delete
    11. Robin of LocksleyJune 28, 2019 at 3:38 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  8. IPSOS MORI Scots subsample:

    46% SNP
    28% Con
    14% Lib
    9% Lab
    2% Green
    1% Brexit

    All caveats / big MoE's apply usual, but it seems for telephone polls the hard brexit vote sticks with the Tories, but online it's swung to Brexit. It's a similar pattern for the whole UK.

    Flag up the sub 10% labour share again. For all the wide variations of subsamples, these are increasingly frequent.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I definitely think France should veto any further brexit talks / extensions not allow England to rejoin the EU/EEA at any time in the future.

    If the British elect Boris and FS then PM it must mean they do think e.g. French people are 'turds', so they'll be much happier outside the EU.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7190081/BBC-censored-Boriss-insult-French.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. People need to appreciate that Boris is deeply racist. He's a hardcore narcissistic, white supremacist English nationalist. It's not just a jolly jape, nor even just a 'clever way of getting attention'.

      He's going to utterly ruin (or rather finish the job of utterly ruining) the UK, both economically and constitutionally, if he makes No. 10. People will look back on the financial crisis and austerity as the good times by comparison.

      Delete
    2. All the peoples of all the countries he's insulted will be itching to welcome an indy Scotland into the world. Even if it's by UDI, they'll be very sympathetic, likely openly supportive.

      If someone's shouting racist abuse at you, calling you a 'Scottish turd', you are hardly going to support them when they're abusing your neighbor to are you?

      Delete
    3. "I definitely think France should... not allow England to rejoin the EU/EEA at any time in the future."

      England won't be reapplying to the EU for another five years or so. At that point Scotland should veto England's application unless the North Sea oil fields stolen from us in 1999 are returned.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Adjacent_Waters_Boundaries_Order_1999

      Delete
  10. Can we use the term 'English turds' to describe people from there?

    If you are allowed to be PM while using such language it must be ok right?

    Sturgeon can for example use it at FMQ's in relation the the latest Westminster budget cuts for example?

    After all, the British Foreign secretary uses this language at EU summits yes?

    Such a jolly jape!

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    Replies
    1. No wait, the BBC would edit out Sturgeon saying something like that wouldn't they! Lol. Silly me.

      Delete
    2. Eradicate would be better. Have to say skier your imagination is incredible. You could match JK Rowland in fiction.

      Delete
  11. Varadkar who let's the EU negotiate for his country has said the EU will not renegotiate with the UK. Good and well said Paddy. We are leaving bye bye.

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    1. Everyone wants you to go. They don't mind if you leave.

      You call them 'turds' and 'paddies'. Why would they want you in the EU?

      But you are too chickenshit to leave. It's why you are still here, over 3 fucking years on. It's pathetic. Brexiters are a joke. All they can do is swear drunkenly at foreign people about how 'Britain is leaving and you can't stop us!'. Yet the EU opens the door and still here is fucking Britain, lying pished on the couch in a puddle of its own puke and wee mumbling about paddies and turds.

      Fuck off. Get out. Go away.

      Delete
    2. Mad Jock BrexiterJune 28, 2019 at 10:24 PM

      We are leaving and the Irish will be deported back to the Boston Diosese.

      Delete
    3. No you are not leaving. You are still here fucking here! You keep saying 'We are leaving', but 3 years on you are still to fucking chickenshit scared. Every time the official leaving date comes around you beg on your knees for more time so we grant you an extension. As soon as you get it, you go back to calling us 'paddy cafflicks' and 'turds' and roll around drunk in your piss stained trousers for another few months.

      It's pathetic. The Irish had to beat a global Empire in a war for Freedom. Huge numbers killed. Towns burnt to the ground, and women raped by the brits.

      All you had to do was tick a box. The 27 are politely holding open the door for you and still you won't go.

      Brexit Britain is a pathetic, cowardly joke of a state.

      Just fuck off. Get out.

      Delete
  12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48807161

    The EU and South American economic bloc Mercosur have clinched a huge trade deal after 20 years of negotiations.

    Boris will do this in a few weeks. Will all be done and dusted by the 31st October.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Skier, your colostomy bag is full.

      Delete
    2. No wait. There won't be any UK-South America trade deal. Not unless N. Ireland stays in the single market under the backstop.

      Just like there won't be any trade deal with anywhere unless that happens. EU, US and Mercosur... will see to that.

      Delete
  13. Sinn Fein Fascist Catholic IRA in Belfast Council proposing that our Armed Forces should not be honored.
    Wonder if Scottish Nat si Fascist Catholics agree with them.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Herr Blackford up the erse of Barnier.June 29, 2019 at 12:00 AM

    I made a real erse of maself in the Commons at PMQs the other day. But who cares I get 70k from the taxpaying working class mugs every year. Hic

    ReplyDelete
  15. GWC got fisted up the bum by Ruth Davidson.She said his cunt opened up like an Elephants vagina.

    ReplyDelete
  16. My anus is still stretched. My farts sound like a Billy boy being pumped by the King himself.

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  17. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  18. Well, this celebration of 20 years of the Scottish Parliament is kinda awkward for 'now is not the time and it never will be' crew.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48790983

    Crown of the ancient Kingdom of Scotland currently making its way down the Royal Mile.

    Britain just 'doesn't have the history' to be independent some would say.

    Britain's what, only got 27% of the History of Scotland?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The only progressive policy put through the Jocko Parliament was care for the elderly. The Jock Nat sis are still in the Tory pocket of privitisation and the ex Tory Bus man. And they the Jocko Nat sis call their fellow Tories Scum. Yeh hiv tae laugh.

      Delete
  19. Every country in the world is brave enough to be independent apart from Britain/England.

    To scared to let go of Scotland's hand and those of Europe.

    Shit, even the Scots are brave enough (Scots born voted Yes in 2014); it was the Brits/English that bottled it.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-figures-revealed-majority-5408163

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Come on England/Britain. Be brave. Rise now and be nation again.

      You can do it. You don't need us Scots to look after you. You can govern yourselves. A ken whit wi Brexit, Boris an aw that you are wondering if that's really true, but you'll pull yersel the gither in time.

      Delete
    2. "Shit, even the Scots are brave enough (Scots born voted Yes in 2014); it was the Brits/English that bottled it."

      Ethno-nat. Anyone who wants to live and work here is a Scot.

      Delete
    3. If you were born here and can vote here, you should be a 'Scottish national', i.e. legally Scottish. Check the birth certificate in the drawer.

      The English/British deport people who 'want to live and work here', so sorry, you are incorrect.

      Only under independence could everyone in Scotland (who wanted to) become an official Scot. For now, however much it might be desirable, when it comes to the stamped documents facts of the matter, it's sadly not true.

      Delete
    4. The only official Scots are those with Scottish Blood. Not your Irish immigrant mob who are in the wilderness with their nationality. Yanks and Wanks going on about the old country.

      Delete
    5. 'Scots with Scottish blood' voted Yes in 2014, as per my earlier link.

      Delete
  20. My lord doesn't GWC rant on spewing out their drivel. Their comments become more and more erratic by the minute. Even a 5 year old child could put together a more rational response.

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    Replies
    1. Comments are not by the minute but staggered my Lord.

      Delete