Saturday, May 11, 2019

Opinium poll suggests Farage has a chance of becoming Prime Minister

It's not very often that Nicola Sturgeon tweets about a Britain-wide opinion poll, and I was initially slightly puzzled as to why she singled out ("it's time for independence, Scotland") today's new poll from Opinium.  It shows Labour with a six point lead over the Tories, with Nigel Farage's new Brexit Party one point further back in third place.  On the face of it, that's better for Labour and less good for the Brexit Party than other recent Euro election polls.  But then I took a closer look and realised it's not a Euro election poll.  It's a Westminster poll.

Britain-wide Westminster voting intentions (Opinium):

Labour 28% (-2)
Conservatives 22% (-3)
Brexit Party 21% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 11% (n/c)
Greens 6% (+1)
SNP 4% (+1)
UKIP 4% (n/c)
Change UK 4% (+2)

(Note: I've updated the above figures to include the SNP and Change UK, and also to correct the percentage changes - it turns out there was also an earlier Opinium poll that we didn't know about.)

Yes, folks, Opinium really are saying that if there was a general election tomorrow, the current governing party would be essentially tied with a hard-right populist party that was only formed a few weeks ago.  That almost certainly wouldn't translate into parity in terms of seats, because the first-past-the-post electoral system would punish the Brexit Party for support that is too evenly spread.  But the flip-side of the coin is that once a party becomes popular enough, it suddenly gets rewarded for evenly spread support - that's how the SNP ended up winning almost every seat in Scotland in 2015.  Nigel Farage is potentially only a few percentage points away from becoming Prime Minister in a snap election.

Is it credible to believe that this nightmare scenario could actually unfold in real life?  As an election approaches, voters often revert to old habits - for example, the Liberal Democrats still ended up in third place in 2010 in spite of the "Cleggasm" that temporarily propelled them into a lead in the polls.  But there could be a tipping point if Tory MPs start defecting to the Brexit Party.  It's certainly conceivable that if Britain hasn't left the European Union by the time the election is held, Nigel Farage could end up leading a sizeable group of Brexit Party MPs in the House of Commons.

Meanwhile, it must be some kind of record for any party to be leading a Westminster poll on just 28% of the vote.  It's perfectly conceivable to win a majority on that sort of vote if you have a big enough lead over the second placed party.  Would there come a point where even the Labour and Tory dinosaurs might start to conclude that the perversities of first-past-the-post are getting beyond a joke? 

*  *  *

UPDATE: A Westminster poll from ComRes shows much the same picture, except that it actually has the Brexit Party in second place...

Britain-wide Westminster voting intentions (ComRes):

Labour 27% (-6)
Brexit Party 20% (+6)
Conservatives 19% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 14% (+7)
Change UK 7% (-2)
Greens 5% (+2)
SNP 3% (n/c)
UKIP 3% (-2)

77 comments:

  1. Under FPTP, UKIP would vote tactically for Brexit, taking them to 25%, which is more than the Tories.

    This is basically how you get fascism in the UK. Brukip could get a majority on 30% or so, particularly if the others are splitting up and voters are leaving them for other wee parties.

    Once Brukip's in power, they'll move to cancel elections / or 'delay' these very quickly due to a 'national emergency', bestowing extensive new executive powers on the PM.

    FPTP = 'Strong government' mind.

    It's all happened so many times before in history. UK is particularly susceptible because of FPTP, but even more so because it arrogantly believes on the furriners dae fascism.

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  2. Here we go.

    LAB: 27% (-6)
    BREX: 20% (+6)
    CON: 19% (-4)
    LDEM: 14% (+7)
    CHUK: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    UKIP: 3% (-2)

    Lab-Con coalition of English nationalist unity must be coming any day now. It's that or both get shafted in the next GE. At least if they work together they can maybe hold onto power jointly.

    Of course if that happens, bye bye Scotland, with N. Ireland already going as it remains in the EU/single market to preserve the GFA.

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    1. Comres UK ^^

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    2. I think JK made the point in a blogpost, but if only Change UK had called themselves Remain or RemainUK, it would have been earthquake time, what a strategic blunder! (of Cleggasmic proportions)

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    3. If JK Rowling said it, somebody else thought of it first.

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  3. Farage would become a good PM. He would put the UK first. He likes Scotland and the booze cultyur. One of us I say. Do not vote for anyone in the EU elections. SPOIL your ballot paper in protest against the EU.

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    1. If you'd like to be a nation of xenophobic, racist, natsi-fascists. We truly would be a cunt-tree then.

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    2. Get out and vote Remain in whatever form and put the forces of darkness back in the cesspit where they belong.

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    3. Lets make Europe great again.

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    4. MEGA. Nice

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  4. Please give examples of the many times that the UK parliaments powers have been taken away and given to the prime minister. Must be at least half a dozen since you say its happened many times..

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    1. I'm talking about the bigger picture. Have a look at Turkey right now to see what I mean. If anyone thinks the UK couldn't become a fascist state in a matter of a few years, they're an idiot and an arrogant racist. All countries are susceptible. To believe it is not a threat is to open the door to it.

      And the current UK PM is attempting to cancel elections in Scotland; that's what refusing a section 30 is an attempt at in effect. Unionists lose in 2016, so just try to legally prevent the result being implemented (in the form of an new iref - core policy of the SNP).

      At least when Erdogan doesn't like a result, he tries to get a new vote. May is trying to prevent any further votes at all.

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    2. It could, equally it could not, noone can say either way.

      But I'm glad you admitting that the voting for the SNP to get Independence is a waste of a vote as they will never will deliver it (England will block a ref as you say).

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    3. LOL, you only need to look at the above UK polling to see what happens if you are appearing to 'block / not deliver the will of the people'.

      Suffice to say, you don't get the votes.

      Granting a Section 30 is the best way to save the union. Dave understood that. Refuse one and the union breaks.

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    4. polling and votes are immaterial. If as you say England can block Independence then the SNP could get every seat possible and it would not matter because England would just block indy. Hence why voting for the SNP to obtain Independence is a waste of a vote.

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    5. I clearly said 'appearing' to block. You struggle with English sometimes it seems; a common trait of unionists.

      The only way a new iref in Scotland could actually be blocked ultimately would be with English jackboots on the ground, tanks etc. Scottish police disbanded with English goose-steppers beating up old ladies and mums with kids as they try to vote etc.

      Holyrood shut down...direct rule imposed...Scottish politicians arrested.

      UDI works every time; unless the jackboots are sent in.

      Spain understood that well enough.

      Of course that doesn't 'save the union', it just damages it further.

      Only way to save the UK long term is a Section 30 and the free will of Scots voters. Dave got understood that.

      So get out and vote pro-indy! :-)

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    6. no you didn't:

      And the current UK PM is attempting to cancel elections in Scotland; that's what refusing a section 30 is an attempt at in effect. Unionists lose in 2016, so just try to legally prevent the result being implemented (in the form of an new iref - core policy of the SNP).

      The word 'appearing' is clearly not used in your statement.

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    7. "LOL, you only need to look at the above UK polling to see what happens if you are appearing to 'block / not deliver the will of the people'"

      I said 'attempting' in an early post, then later 'appearing'.

      Again I note your deficiencies with English.

      While not the native language of my country, I understand that both words imply that things 'look a certain way / efforts are being made to push them in that direction' (i.e. iref blocked somehow by UK government), but that does not necessarily mean it's the case / will happen.

      You need to attend some English language lessons.

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    8. My English is just fine. You have repeatedly said that England /UK can block a Indy ref/ Independence. Examples below

      Scots voters also note that English Labour continue refuse them the right to vote by supporting no Section 30 being granted to Holyrood.

      If you want a massive SNP/Yes vote, just get English MPs to tell Scots that if they vote SNP, then England will just cancel the result and hand the election to unionists

      Are Labour making a giving Holyrood a Section 30 a red line in any Lab-Con brexit coalition deal or are they going to join the Tories in forcing Scotland to stay in the UK

      If a Section 30 is refused, as night follows day, so in time a UK government will say 'now is not the time' for a general election they suspect they'll lose. After all, if they've done it once and nobody put up a fight, then they'll try it again. 'A national emergency / emergency powers' is normally used to justify this move.

      In Britain they don't force is to choose, they just tell us 'Now is not the time!' and cancel votes.

      He's [Corbyn] just as likely as May to refuse an iref if he was PM. Just like her, he has said he believes it's his/England's choice (he would personally 'decide at the time') whether Scots can have independence.

      We are certainly in the very last days of the Union if the only way London can think of holding it together is by ending democracy

      No use of of the words appearing or attempting in those statements.

      Of course all of those statements came after you said that England / UK could not block an indy ref.

      As long as you word and plan everything correctly, the iref you set up could go ahead with a Section 30 or without

      Its one or the other, either England/UK can block indy in which case a vote for the SNP is wasted as it can never deliver Independence or as you have said England cannot block an indy ref, in which case your multiple statements that England/UK can block and indy ref are misleading/lies.


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    9. You are now my stalker? Going back through old posts? How long did you spend on that?

      I'm some random guy on the internet. No need to get so worked up.

      I've said enough times that the English/British government seems to believe it can block an iref and is openly saying that's what it will do.

      That is what the public is seeing and what matters. The UK government is fascist. No doubt about it; they are openly saying they will try to block democracy. Attempted murder / conspiracy to murder is just as bad as murder; the intent is there.

      Whether they can or not is another matter. Legal opinion varies, and democratic voter are never illegal; it's only fascists that make such rulings. Hence Spain had to send in the jackboots too; simply saying 'That's illegal in our rule book!' doesn't work ultimately.

      I think it's great the UK government is going down this road; it's killing the union. Dave not half as stupid; his Section 30 saved the union.

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    10. about 2 minutes. When someone starts making personal comments (you need English lessons was pretty poor attempt but point stands) it usually means things are not going as well as hes making out. Kinda proved it today when you tried turning a sub-sample in which a minority of the electorate would vote for pro indy parties as an accomplishment.

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    11. Erm, it's not possible to make 'personal' comments to completely 'anonymous' posters on the internet. I'd need to at least maybe know your name and a few details before that would start to be possible.

      The subsample is from a way too pro-leave base (see tables); UK polls are not Scotland weighted. It is more likely close to 50% SNP + Green if corrected. Which would tie in with 49% Yes in the most recent 'snap iref tomorrow' poll.

      Still, as is, it would probably mean 55/59 SNP MPs or similar, which isn't too bad. A 20+ point lead 12 years into government is truly remarkable.

      Unionist parties collapsing into multiple warring factions makes it all the more entertaining.

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  5. Good try, It's almost as if you're pro indy yourself.
    An SNP vote is never wasted. The next time we win 56 seats it'll be on a straight indy mandate to strike a deal to leave the UK.
    We'll be well past the point of polite requests for S30 orders.
    The EU will back us not London.

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    1. Immaterial, if you go down the road that England can block Independence and indy ref can only happen if there is a section 30 order then you can get 56 seats, won't matter a jot, there still be no indy as there will still be no section 30.

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    2. The last time England tried to block the results of an independence referendum was in Ireland and how did that work out. Any attempt to block a democratic vote of the people of Scotland will only lead to more conflict and I fear violence. This is not the path of any government who believes in democracy.

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    3. Glad you agree that there will be an indy ref and that England will not stop it happening, and therefore is not blocking indy as has been mentioned.

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  6. A section 30 applies to the Scotland Act, allowing a temporary transfer of power for Scotland to hold a referendum, but referendums relying on section 30 orders are not the only route to independence - a democratic mandate such as a sweeping victory in a westminster election would pass the test. whether England would then block independence is up to them but philosophically and legally it is different to 'not-granting' (active versus passive) although the outcome would be the same. Then its up to us.

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    1. So England can't block Independence then? If true then people who say England is blocking Independence are just lying/making things up.

      Of course the Scot Gov has a mandate for Independence so could declare UDI (which is what you describe) tomorrow, they are choosing not to, ergo they are the reason that Scotland is not yet Independent.

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    2. LOL. 'Now is not the time and it never will be!' needs to be milked for every single vote. Would be stupid to waste it. It's christmas come early for the SNP.

      The nats have dreamed of the day the Brits would say 'No', because that would be the final end of the union. Every PM has always made it clear Scots could vote freely to leave, be it Thatcher or Dave.

      Now is not the time to hold a new iref. Not quite yet. Better to let the fuckwits in London generate 1997 type Yes levels before doing that.

      In addition to the apparent moves to fascism, making Scotland a English colony according to the UK government (their words, not mine), we also have Labour in coalition talks with the Tories. That has to be worth waiting for. Could add 5-10% to the yes vote. Then we have 'brexit day', the day the EU/EEA/EFTA can offer Scotland membership freely and openly as the UK has officially become a third country. Aye, better wait for that before holding iref#2.

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  7. Everybody looks down their noses at Farage but he's just the man to give Britain the shake up it needs and knock the shirkers and layabouts into shape. The only reason we have all these Romainians and Poles pouring in is because British youngsters have gone soft and won't do the work. Farage would make them work for their dole. And the unmarried mother's need to get a job or give up their children for adoption. The Poles are only here to get British passports too so they can leave and go and work all over Europe. We don't want Sharrian law in England.

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    1. I see the Lab-Con coalition talks are being hampered by the bid to replace May.

      https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-talks/fight-to-replace-pm-may-complicating-brexit-talks-labours-mcdonnell-idUKKCN1SH0LZ

      Fight to replace PM May complicating Coalition talks - Labour's McDonnell

      Rather than any fundamental difference on policy that is.

      It's absolutely glorious that Labour are asking for Scots and English Remain + left votes in these circumstances.

      Can you imagine what would happen to the SNP if they opened formal coalition talks with the Tories to sign a deal to formally secure Scotland's place in the UK?

      At the same time, the Conservatives & Unionist parties are in open civil war, falling out with each other / splitting all over the UK union.

      The end draws near.

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    2. Not sure anybody could knock a shirker layabout like you into shape Stan Le.

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    3. Polish Sharrian law is murder. I think it involves queuing for sausages or something.

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    4. Smug fools. Get back to me when your wive's have to wear viels and your poof sons get chucked off the top of buildings. Because your the type who's sons probably are poofs.

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    5. I'll bet you're sitting in your caravan drinking in your gummy vest. Get a job, dole boy,!

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    6. The man doth protest too much me thinks, interesting insight into your world though Stan Lee.

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  8. Opinion Westminster subsample.

    21 point lead for the SNP and unionist party carnage.
    41% SNP
    22% Con
    12% Lab
    12% Brexit
    7% Lib
    4% UKIP
    2% Green
    1% CHUK

    Talk about 'dividing themselves to they can be conquered'. Jeez Louise.

    Seems SNP lower bound is 40% now, upper bound is into the 50's.

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    1. Fantasy figures. UK is leaving the EU as a United Kingdom. Because that's what we are.

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    2. Don Pritchard.

      Err..

      No we aren't.

      That will become inceasingly obvious, even to you.

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    3. Oh yes. Of course you are. Warwickshire is slightly put out too.

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    4. You mean...YouGov are showing 49% support for Warwickshire independence as well? Crikey, I didn't know that. This precious union of yours is falling apart.

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    5. Don,

      As long as Warwickshire see's itself as part of England, your worries about it are unfounded.

      On the other hand, Scotland may see itself as a Nation, and ought to have the right to seceed, given the lies that have been told by Westminster. You may know better than I, but what untruths was Warwickshire told? During the independence campaign we were told lie after lie....

      Not a good position to be entering another referendum on Scottish Independence.

      The manipulation won once, but turned out to be utter lies. This is not an acceptable way to treat the Scottish electorate and it will come back and bite you.


      Well, what about the lies that they told us all? Do you remember the fancy red bus?

      I do, and I will never forgive them.

      You may support liars and cheats, I am not at all sure that I would.

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    6. I would respectfully point out to you that this is the year 2019 and Scotland ceded its sovereignty and became part of England over 300 years ago. Like Warwickshire is. It is lovely to look wistfully to a romantic past but those of us who are realists tend to have a more solid grasp on reality. We all love your colourful tartans and music.

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  9. Nice to see Jim (Definitely not a senile old cretin working for Mi5) Sillars back in the news.

    He's not going to vote SNP as they support staying in the EU. And we've got the usual claim that 30% of people who voted SNP at some tine voted leave.

    Funny how the entire SMSM have forgotten their campaign for Yes voters to vote leave. I know it happened, you know it happened,and they know it happened. But it's been eradicated from history.
    Remember article after article stating that Yes voters should vote leave because that would mean Scotland being dragged out of the Eu and trigger another referendum. The obvious fraud being that if Scotland had voted to leave the EU then we wouldn't be being dragged out against our democratic will. But severin (lying english turd carrell) and the rest didn't care. They had their orders to cause as much trouble as possible.

    How many Yes voters fell for their trick? And why should the 38% who were mostly english immigrant EDL supporters get to dictate to my country?

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    1. I was very surprised when Sillars set up his SLP then joined the SNP. Maybe he's just a permanent contrarian - which is useful and essential - or maybe he's like the guy I was at university with who joined the police, was staunch Labour then Who I watched from a distance at an independence rally in Edinburgh years ago taking photos of people. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but I never trusted Sillars. He's from that older generation who think there's such a thing as a British workers movement.

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  10. While I'm here.

    I see the woke-Stasi are on to you.

    Next time they crawl out of the sewer and onto your timeline please ask them to define "mis-gendering".

    If they can manage to do that without employing circular logic and sociology degree waffle then it will be a first.

    "Peak Trans," is a real thing. Much like old Stuart Dickson and his, "Brown epiphany". That moment when reality batters through any self-delusion and you know the truth.

    Imagine all the people who say that evil J CHerry had wickedly mis-gendered poor "lilly" Madigan. "Its an outrage! Who is that poor delicate victim?" Turns to Google. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Fk off! That's a boy! And they will never believe another word that comes from the tranny fannies. Job done.

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    1. Are you on a cocktail of drugs?

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    2. I just read his/her pish, so I wish I was on one!

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  11. British 'Alternatives for Germany'* on 25% of the vote combined. Scary stuff.


    ----
    *Farage is chairman of the AfD and the other far-right parties in the EU parliament.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_of_Freedom_and_Direct_Democracy

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    1. Irene Palagrout (minstrel)May 13, 2019 at 12:12 AM

      Well... Riddle me free. Friddle me rightly.

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  12. All this pontification on a section 30 order is a waste of space. Itis recognised by Westerminster that the SCOTTISH PEOPLE are SOVEREIGN, Passed unanimously in July 2018. The Scottish people have therefore the power to INSTRUCT the Scottish Government to REPEAL the Treaty of Union.

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  13. My ex-Unionist brother has voted LibDem in the EU elections and has said he'd vote Yes next time (wants to know how Nicola is going to pull it off) in order to get back into the EU and 'leave England to implode'.

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    1. Irene Palagrout (minstrel)May 13, 2019 at 12:08 AM

      I'll bet that prick who "sang" with the House Martin's and the Beautiful South can't get enough of Nigel Farridge's whiff.

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  14. The Farage scare is to rally the liberals and left elites who control the EU. Farage is probably nearer to the working classes than that lot of bloodsucking pariahs . There is no chance of Farage being PM although it would not be any worse than the jokers presently running the UK and Scotland.

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    1. Farage makes EU laws for a living, and has been doing so for 20 years.

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    2. He's naewhere near the working classes, he's a multi millionaire. He disnae gie a toss for ordinary folk, but he sure as hell needs their votes.
      In Scotland we're voting SNP.
      In England I fear they're being herded like sheep by the BBC and the Tory press. Man the lifeboats!

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    3. Son of a stockbroker, private education, commodity broker in the stock market...man is practically a coal miner.

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    4. The envy and jealous comments about a high taxpaying successful man. The jocks are terrible for this.

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    5. Ramstam. The Queen's English, woman. Write the Queen's English, you slovenly slattern.

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  15. Natsi Nige and the Far-right-rage machine will get nowhere near PM, get out and vote Remain lets get these sewer rats back in their sea of shiola.

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  16. Lets make Europe great again.

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    1. You do highlight a fair point; if you want a fully federal Europe, you've nobody to vote for in the UK. Even the Lib Dems are are not that pro-full integration. SNP want a looser relationship; having always campaigned for taking back more control of fisheries. In reality, they lie half way between EFTA and EU; for now the EU side just have it.

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    1. 'United States of England', i.e. the UK (with it's EVEL English government and no Scots MPs in the cabinet/shadow cabinet).

      I'm guessing.

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  18. Far right on 34% of the vote in England.

    This is how they get into government. In a Westminster election, that's majority territory.

    European Parliament voting intention:
    BREX: 34% (+4)
    LAB: 16% (-5)
    LDEM: 15% (+5)
    GRN: 11% (+2)
    CON: 10% (-3)
    CHUK: 5% (-4)

    via @YouGov
    Chgs. w/ 30 Apr

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    1. didn't realise its a England only poll.

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    2. See the subamples. Brexit party support barely mid teens in Scotland.

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  19. Yougov UK Scottish sample.

    Westminster:
    41% SNP
    15% Lab
    14% Con
    12% Brexit
    10% Lib
    5% Green
    1% CHUK
    1% UKIP

    Utter carnage for the unionist parties; divided, warring factions galore.

    May's trying to say 'now is not the time' with 14% of the vote.

    SNP 26 point lead.

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  20. Farage, Hitler without the moustache.

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    1. Sturgeon, Eva Prawn with a touché.

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    2. Well, Farage is actually the official leader of the AfD in the EU parliament.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_of_Freedom_and_Direct_Democracy

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48146966

      Germany has seen a rise in support for the far right, with the Alternative for Germany party now the largest opposition party in the Bundestag.

      Straight from the BBC: the far right are on 34% in the UK.

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  21. The last time the UK, and in particular England, went this bat-shit crazy in such a short time was following the deat of Diana.

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  22. There's a nationalist leader in charge already in Scotland - the nightmare is here

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