Thursday, May 23, 2019

A few points to bear in mind about today's election

* Last time around, the SNP were slightly closer than the Greens to preventing UKIP from winning a Scottish seat.  An extra 32,100 votes for the SNP would have stopped UKIP, whereas the Greens would have needed an extra 32,230.  That history lesson isn't strictly relevant to today's election, because the Brexit Party appear to be stronger in Scotland than UKIP were five years ago, and are probably guaranteed at least one seat.  But I did hear last night that someone was planning to 'tactically' vote Green, specifically because of their mistaken belief that the Greens were closest to denying UKIP in 2014.  So it's probably just as well to put the record straight.

* It's essentially impossible to cast a tactical vote under this particular electoral system.  The only limited exception to that would be if you're planning to vote for a very small party (such as Change UK) that has no realistic hope of winning a seat in the Scottish electoral region.  If so, you're probably wasting your vote, and you might be better off switching to a larger party.  But apart from that, to make a sound decision to switch tactically from one party to another, you'd need to know in advance exactly how everyone else is going to vote, and that knowledge simply isn't available.  The best proof of that point is the fact that three different pro-Remain "tactical voting" websites have managed to come up with three completely different and contradictory recommendations for Scottish voters: one urges a vote for the SNP, one backs the Lib Dems, and the third plumps for the Greens.  It's just glorified guesswork.  (And in the case of the website recommending a tactical vote for the Lib Dems, there may well be an agenda behind it.)

* A low turnout will almost certainly favour the Brexit Party, so the one and only reliable way of making things harder for Farage is to persuade as many of your pro-indy family and friends as possible to actually vote.

* There is no ceiling of support above which any party won't need more votes.  Many polling subsamples have put the SNP in the high 30s, enough to win three of the six seats.  But, because of the way the D'Hondt formula works, there'd also be a chance of a fourth seat with a few extra percentage points.  Of course there's always a possibility that the polls are overstating the SNP, in which case a fourth seat would be out of reach - but, if so, the SNP would still need votes to ensure they win three seats rather than just two.  There is no scenario in which they won't need as many votes as they can possibly get.

* If you want to help generate momentum towards an independence referendum, a vote for the SNP will have a bigger impact than a vote for the Greens.  Today's election will have no direct effect on the independence campaign - it's purely psychological.  And that being the case, what matters is how the media report the result.  The London media in particular are probably only dimly aware that the Greens are a pro-indy party, which means that a Green seat will be interpreted primarily as a victory for left-wing politics and environmentalism.  By contrast, every SNP seat will be reported as a direct endorsement of an indyref.

27 comments:

  1. By contrast, every SNP seat will be reported as a direct endorsement of an indyref.

    A bit optimistic. If the SNP do well, the media consensus will be that it was an expression of support for Remain, and in spite of their support for independence. Which isn't that unfair, given the focus of their campaign.

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    1. Given the demented campaign by fatty arbuckle junior and her conservatives in Scotland party has insisted that this is an actual vote about a new independence referendum then that would be an interesting trick to pull.

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    2. Obviously I wouldn't use Anon's language, but his main point is correct. The media interpreted the 2015 SNP surge as being about independence, even though the SNP had spent that campaign saying it had nothing to do with independence (in a way they haven't done this time, incidentally).

      A vote for the Greens will be seen as, among other things, a vote to Remain. A vote for the SNP will be seen as a vote to Remain and a vote for indy.

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  2. Predictions for the result on Sunday?

    I'll go : SNP 2, Brexit 2, Lab 1, Libs 1.

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    1. Streuth, that's a bit harsh. I agree there's a danger the SNP will only get 2, but the polling has put them comfortably on at least 3. I think it'll be touch and go for Labour - they might just cling on to one seat, but they might not.

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    2. God I hope you're wrong..... That'd be music to the ears of the msm..... Spun as terrible blow to snp....
      I'm going with snp 3, brex 2, lib 1
      (I guess there's a chance of snp 4, brex 1, green 1, which I'd be cock a hoop at)

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  3. 《Sigh.
    Another commentator advising vote Labour or Green!
    https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/05/22/the-remain-strategy-region-by-region-voting-guide

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    1. That's one of the three I was talking about. Voting for a pro-Brexit party like Labour as a "pro-Remain tactical vote" is an unusual idea.

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  4. Hardly matters which spongers of the public purse gets a seat. Once we leave the EU they will have to work for a live. Amazing how you Nat sis love unnecessary politicians and beaurocracy.

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  6. I see there is majority support for a new iref due to brexit in the latest panelbase.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/R_Davidson1980/status/1131557922352373764

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  7. Gut feeling the SNP will take 3, Brexit 2 (unfortunately) and the Liberals will squeak through for the last seat as the "unionist remain" vote vehicle. Tories and Labour will have no representation from Scotland.

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  8. There was only one person (seemed to be SNP) outside the old TA centre at Alnwickhill and nobody at the Oxgangs Road North place.

    The ballot box was pretty full though.

    Interesting factlet. On the ballot paper it said Conservative and Unionist party, labout party and Liberal Democrat party. The Scottish name was in small print as to put it first would have been illegal.

    Why are they allowed to commit fraud in Scottish elections?

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    1. Who's they?

      Secondly how did you know the box was pretty full? They are sealed boxes with a small slit in them, know way of telling if its full or empty.

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    2. The slit isn't that small, it's pretty easy to tell if the ballot box is close to full. Other papers will be clearly visible at the top.

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  9. People getting rightly upset about problems EU citizens not being able to vote, but the reality is that everyone knew there was a problem 4 years ago

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/eu-citizens-prevented-voting-confusion-registration-forms

    So it is all well any good Mp's and polticians tweeting about how how wrong its is, the question really should be why have they made no attempt to change things over the last four years?

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  10. Therese May gone Friday. How is turnout?

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    1. She turned out smartly in a blue coat.

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  11. I folded up my ballot paper into less than half of A5 and squeezed it into the wee crack. It will pass the time of the vote counters opening it up.

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    1. I don't think they're going to be bothered looking in your wee crack.

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    2. She's like that. One sniff of vodka and she's like a bitch in heat.

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  12. Of topic but topical. Can somebody please take poor wee Cameron large cetacean Archibald aside and give him a bit of advice.

    Nobody is going to take him and hid MMT seriously when the obvious question will be asked.

    "Why should we believe anything you say when you think alex drummond is a lesbian?"

    Whaaaa, whaaa, whaa, wha! Fade to black and game over. It's an exercise in giving yourself zero credibility before you even start.

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  13. Knickerless formerly SturgeonMay 23, 2019 at 11:48 PM

    See us Scots we are great and Scotland is great. We are better than the English who are so loud and offensive towards us Scots. Scotland can run our own affairs and we do not need the English. Scots hate the English and Scotland is great. We in Scotland can run our own country without anyone including those English BA as turds. We are so great we want the EU to run Scotland.

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  14. I wonder how many potential voters were finally persuaded that the Greens are a gang of raving lunatics tonight?

    Co-convenor M Chapman refuses to answer a fairly simple question. to wit, "do you believe that women have penises?".

    Now everybody else on planet Earth could provide an answer but she's fked.
    Tell the truth and she would be sacked by the greens who have made it a condition of party membership to unconditionally accept that tranyfannies are real women.

    Publicly state that men are women in front of the Scottish public and watch your political life circle round the plug-hole.

    Glorious it was.

    PS. The greens voted for the tram when we could have replaced every bus in Scotland with a hybrid and massively reduced air pollution for less than half the price. They deserve to be eradicated.

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    1. The government should nationalise the buses and all public transport without compensation to the private owners. The Scottish Nat sis have been given donations from privateers and pretend they are on the left of politics.

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    2. Cordelia seems to be drinking heavily again. Her poor wife will have to listen to her odd ramblings. Poor woman.

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