Tuesday, November 6, 2018

That Survation poll: a brief autopsy

In the end there was very little point in fleshing out last night's blogpost about the Survation mega-poll, because a lot of what had been reported about it on social media (and even in one or two newspaper articles) turned out to be fictional.  There was no direct independence question in the poll at all - the reported numbers of Yes 51.4%, No 48.6% were a silly confection, justified with logic of the "two plus two equals twenty-two" variety.  The irony is that we've seen in recent weeks that if you ask poll respondents how they would vote in an independence referendum if they assume that a hard Brexit is going ahead, you get a Yes vote in the low 50s anyway.  So I'm not entirely sure what the point of inventing fantasy results was.

The Westminster voting intention numbers that were mentioned on Twitter also turn out not to be what they first appeared - according to Survation, they are from a Scottish subsample that was not separately weighted.  So the apparent significant uptick in SNP support since the last full-scale Scottish poll from Survation cannot be regarded as meaningful.  The next proper poll may well show a boost of that sort, but we'll just have to wait and see.

The one and only piece of Scottish data in the poll that did turn out to be authentic is that 38% of respondents say that Brexit would make them more likely to support independence, and only 25% say that it would make them less likely to support independence.  And that, I would suggest, is plenty enough to be getting on with for now.

As far as the UK-wide figures from the poll are concerned, I have to say the People's Vote brigade are getting a bit carried away.  They've been pointing to maps showing there has been a swing to Remain almost everywhere, and saying it's "astonishing" and "extraordinary".  Hmmm.  Up to a point, Lord Copper.  If Survation are right, there has been a 6% swing from Leave to Remain since the 2016 referendum, which is not insignificant, but the Leave vote has scarcely fallen through the floor.  A mere 4% swing back in the opposite direction would see Leave draw level - and that sort of shift can happen in the blink of an eye in the heat of a referendum campaign.  And it's scarcely unprecedented in British politics for a national swing to be replicated to varying degrees in most localities (even assuming that localised figures from the poll based on very small subsamples can be regarded as remotely reliable).

*  *  *

41 comments:

  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

    Populus and ComRes polls on 22nd June 2016 predicted 55% and 54%...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not comparable, because the new poll is weighted by 2016 referendum vote.

      Delete
    2. Exactly. Dashed piffle and balderdash from an infamous poltroon.

      Delete
  2. Thank you for your, unbiased, reporting James... Much appreciated by myself and those groups in which I post

    ReplyDelete
  3. Perhaps if GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries didn't spend so much of its time shrieking sectarian and homophobic obscenities and instead tried engaging with people, its comments might stay up for more than a few hours. #justsayin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Perhaps if GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries didn't spend so much of its time shrieking sectarian and homophobic obscenities and instead tried engaging with people, its comments might stay up for more than a few hours. #justsayin

      Delete
    2. Archimedes G BellendNovember 13, 2018 at 7:47 AM

      Now you're boring me, fruitfly.

      Delete
    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  4. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu/northern-irish-kingmakers-tell-pm-may-dont-sell-out-the-united-kingdom-idUKKCN1NE0NG

    ...The Times newspaper reported that the EU wants a customs border in the Irish sea in the event of a no-deal Brexit, citing a leaked letter from May to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which props up her government.

    ---

    I see it's finally starting to dawn on on some that there are two outcomes for N. Ireland if Brexit goes ahead:

    (1) Border in the Irish Sea in the case of a deal
    (2) Border in the Irish Sea in the case of no deal

    = Saltire of St. Patrick on the Union jack fading away...

    (2) Will be enforced by crippling economic sanctions if necessary. Even military force could be justified if the UK did decide to tear up a UN international peace agreement and become a pariah state, holding at least a million or so Irish EU citizens and their lands/homes/businesses hostage...

    It's that or the whole UK stays in the single market / customs union, i.e. pretty much 'Remain' wins the day, with England suffering the greatest national humiliation in its history.

    So, UK stays in or UK breaks up, and that's before we even think about Scotland and the polls showing it voting Yes in the event of Brexit.

    Anyone with any sense understood this years ago. Constitutional experts warned time and again that this crisis was inevitable in the event of brexit.

    Oh Danny boy the pipes the pipes are calling...

    The UK is finally getting its comeuppance over the abomination that is its continued occupation a large bit of someone else's territory, while English nationalism destroys the devolution that British unionists came up with to hold their union together in its dying years.

    And always keep that in mind. The attacks on devolution are not an attack on the SNP, independence etc, they are an attack on Scottish-British unionism. SNP can't believe their luck on this one. Hell, devo wasn't their idea; it was a Lab-Lib baby. A few more Murray Footes crossing the floor as the English brexiters push forward with carelessly trashing 'the settled will of the scottish people' and it's all over.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yea, the whole of the UK is going to stay in a soft Brexit, thats been obvious for months, thats what the majority in Paliment want. Its only the English and Scottish nationalists who need a hard Brexit to get them out of the unions they despise so much.

      Of course with Scotland in in the CU/SM Independence is dead. After spending the last two years saying that Scotland needs to be in the CU/SM at the very least, cant then campaign for Independence which will take Scotland out of the SM/CU.

      Delete
    2. Brexit isn't needed for indy nor for reunification in N. Ireland.

      Hell 45% voted Yes in 2014 and the unionists in N. Ireland lost their majority pre-brexit. Both of these events, just like devo refs of 1979 (52%) and 1997 (74%), were a long time coming and are significant points on the british empire decline curve. 1997 could only ever follow 1979 like 2014 was inevitable after 1997.

      In 1997 as the sun set on Hong Kong, the end of the empire reached home shores, with the celtic periphery moving to semi-independence. Brexit is things spreading to England; it needs to find its place in the world now post UKoGB. Something of a last gasp and an inglorious end.

      A soft brexit won't fix anthing. Farage will be back on the telly every night in no time. There's no stopping this constitutional crisis now. Britain will not emerge from it in recognisable form.

      Delete
  5. There's no doubt the English nationalists will betray the British unionists over N. Ireland. The question is will English nationalists in the Labour party such as Corbyn vote for the betrayal deal? I believe they will (if simply to prevent a hard brexit) and the DUP are starting to realise they've been had.

    Ironic thing is that I've been talking to a British unionist Labour + brexit voter on and off at work. He couldn't be more peed off with N. Ireland and is ready to dump it just to solve the brexit mess he's created with his vote (he acknowledges the mess). I haven't had the heart to tell him, yet, that his English brexit compatriots are not British, but English, could not care less for the unity he's always felt, and will dump him as a 'scrounging jock' in a heartbeat too if Scotland gets in they way of their brexit. Which it's going to.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Aye, Heseltine was at it too with his comment that the EU was a case of the
    German's losing the war but winning the peace.. I wasn't having that says he.
    Seems anti-French and anti-German Racism is mainstream these days.
    The Tories could start a war.
    Hopefully only within the Tory party.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Any moment now Merkel and BMW will intervene, ensuring blighty gets the easiest trade deal in history.

      Delete
  7. This is a comment.

    I agree.

    ReplyDelete
  8. In other news. After all the howling about the unfairness of the Electoral College in the US presidential contest, we now see the same ranting about every state being equally represented in the Senate.

    So much for federalism.

    And these same people want us to trust them to respect our democratic rights in their future mythical federalised UK? They are just incapable of seeing what it screaming right in their faces due to being union cultists.

    ReplyDelete
  9. An over abundance of politicians like we have here in Scotland is not required to protect democracy. Around 50% of Scots do not feel any better of since devolution. The other 50% should explain how they are better of!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    2. Nagasaki Underground Camel Flying Corps AKA Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

      Delete
    3. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.
      So sad.
      So very funny.

      Delete
  10. Well, I see there's still no agreed plan for brexit, including no plan for what happens in the event of no agreed plan. The opposition say they'll vote against the lack of a plan because it doesn't match their vision of what no plan looks like.

    And this is going to run and run. There's no way out of the stinking shit-hole the UK's in. Socio-economically there is only down from here for the UKoGB. The fact people are talking about Corbyn and Mogg as future PMs shows how unrescuable the situation is. I knew it was all over when we had Bozo as FS FFS, and even he resigned. Carry on up the common market.

    A classic 'dying days of empire' situation where governance has become so rotten its complete collapse is inevitable as what's left of the imperial state disintegrates. A truly inglorious end.

    I mean is anyone still thinking this is all going to turn out ok?... Still trying to tell themselves it will be alright on the night? Hell, the UK has not even managed to agree a withdrawl agreement never mind a trade deal with the EU, the finer details of which will take years, even if the government can agree on them. Next the UK needs to join the WTO and start negotiating trade deals with other countries all over the world. Who's going to do that? May, Mogg, Dianne Abbot? Sorry, but the UK's screwed. Utterly f'd. It's going down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You mean the Scottish nationalists who campaigned for Remain, overwhelmingly voted Remain, and are still fighting for Remain?

      I don't think you've been following things closely enough.

      I'd be over the moon if brexit is cancelled. I won't have to worry about the missus maybe being deported by some sweaty racist Tory down south for a start.

      Only problem is that Farage will be back on the BBC every night and the Tories will lose half their vote. I mean polls still have 50 odd% supporting Brexit, and these are mainly Tories. I wonder if May and co are willing to make that sacrifice for the good of the nation? What do you think? If they do, we get Diane Abbot as FS instead of Bozo and all will be good in the world I'm sure; the UK will march on united and strong.

      I wanted a Yes in 2014 if simply because this gigantic pile of shit the UK is in was coming towards us like a freight train. I just wish more had seen it.

      Sorry, but this mess is just getting started. Ignoring the result in England just effectively staying in will not make it go away. It's a symptom, not a cause.

      Delete
    2. Yea nationalists have made a strong case for staying in the EU. So, if the UK stays in the EU how will they they then campaign to leave the EU in a hard Scotexit? An indipendant Scotland would not be in the EU, WTO plus a host of other international organisations, it will make Brexit seem like a walk in the park.

      If the UK stays in EU or has a soft Brexit any chance of Indiref2 goes.

      Delete
    3. Lol. "You'll be oot the EU if you vote for indy!"

      Bit dated now surely?

      Brexit's not the problem. It could all be generally fine. Ask e.g. Norway. I think we're better in, but would be happy enough with single market EFTA.

      It's the UK that's the problem, and brexit's a sympton of that, just as Scottish indy is. UK is in terminal delcine, both politically and socio-economically.

      Jeez, I'm just 41 and it's lost a swath of former colonies as I've grown up. Do you remember when Zimbabwe left? What about Australia cutting final ties in 1986? Sun setting on Hong Kong? You didn't notice a pattern emerging over the past century or so?

      Hell, Scotland had voted in earnest for semi-independence back in 1979, and overwhelmingly for that by 1997. And like night follows day came 2014 and 45%. Hell, the 'second city of the empire' vote to leave it.

      It's weird how people think the empire decline won't continue all the way until England becomes just England again, especially when the English just voted 53% for independence.

      http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Q30-by-LR.jpg

      But I just look at the big picture so ignore me!

      Delete
    4. England being just England again is just the obvious outcome of the behaviour of their politicians over many years.
      Not just the Tories either.
      Corbyn is another who sees Scotland as an add-on to England.
      Like you I'm surprised that so few in London think they can promote English interests at the expense of Scotland and there will be no consequences.

      Delete
  11. Hard Brexit required. BRITAIN should not be shire bags and succumb to EU threats and more so the Irish. We should crash out and let the Irish set up a hard border on behalf of their EU masters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its unrequited love for Yaxley-Lennon.
      So sad.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous I would like you to pump me.

      Delete
    3. Caminna Parkyer-BallsNovember 13, 2018 at 3:31 PM

      Buy me a shire bag for my county bottom

      Delete
    4. Cordelia steamy pantsNovember 13, 2018 at 4:55 PM

      You oh so big well hung Scotsmen with your kilts covering your Grossen Wurst. Mein Gott just geez a squint, wundebarr.

      Delete
    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its impotent rage.
      So very funny watching it argue with itself because no-one will engage with it directly.

      Delete
    6. Susannah Helicopter-BladeNovember 14, 2018 at 5:51 PM

      That's a hilarious if unsettling exchange between Cordelia and eh... Cordelia.

      Delete
    7. It has many issues. We've repeatedly advised it to seek professional help, but the response is invariably hate-filled, homophobic and sectarian.

      Delete
  12. Well, the flood of EU citizens to the exit gates is accelerating.

    The number of skilled EU citizens working in the UK has now fallen by 6% since June 2016. Unemployment in the UK beginning to rise in response.

    Unfortunately, as the UK will soon learn, sending furriners 'back to where they came from' does not create loads of highly paid jobs for everyone.

    Anyway, they're not 'coming here and taking our jobs' they're officialy 'Getting out as fast as they can' should you need to correct anyone on this issue.

    No need for tighter border controls. Simply telling them they're not wanted here was perfectly sufficient, just as predicted.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fake News from you skier. The UK has stated clearly that people from the EU can remain even in a no deal situation. The EU unelected dictators have not given this guarantee to UK.citizens. Scraping your own barrel skier.

      Delete
    2. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its impotent rage.
      So very funny watching it argue with itself because no-one will engage with it directly.

      Delete
    3. Fake news from the ons. EU workers in UK down 6%. Figure 6.

      https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/ukandnonukpeopleinthelabourmarket/november2018

      Non-EU hasn't changed in 10 years.

      160,000 jobs have been vacated by educated EU workers leaving. Yet the decline in unemployment we've seen in recent years is stalling, with job losses now on the up. Wages are struggling, and growth is weakening all the time.

      You can't create a wealthy, prosperous country by kicking out the migrants. That's not how it works.

      But England said 'go back to where you came from you stinking furriners' so they're going.

      Delete
    4. Figure 1 I mean

      Delete
    5. GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its utter confusion.
      So much impotent rage.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    6. EU workers are all as educated as Brits are; unless you are saying brits are dumb or something. It's not as if our education standards are higher than the EU.

      Either way, EU citizens are queing up to get out of the UK. Hundreds of thousands have left already. The exit gates are crammed as they head for Europe in search of a better life (and more welcoming peoples).

      There is no need for tighter border controls. Telling them to 'go home' has worked just fine.

      Delete
  13. If you need an example of lazy misandrism in the msm then you can't really do better that the continual demonisation of A Salmond, and this glorious headline in the grainyard.
    Call for abolition of 'not proven' verdict in Scottish law

    "Country’s three-verdict system criticised for leaving accused innocent in the eyes of the law"

    They just can't see the problem. How dare an accused be declared innocent by the law.

    ReplyDelete