Friday, May 26, 2017

Fresh blow for Tyrannical Theresa as up-to-date SurveyMonkey poll shows another single-digit Tory lead

The second poll to be conducted after the suspension of campaigning has been released by the US outfit SurveyMonkey.  They've made a small number of previous forays into UK political polling, but with a limited track-record and a lack of transparency over their methods, it's hard to know how much faith to put in their findings.  However, what they've come up with is pretty similar to recent polls from the more familiar firms.

GB-wide voting intentions (SurveyMonkey) :

Conservatives 44%
Labour 36%
"Others" 9%
Liberal Democrats 6%

The "others" will be primarily the SNP and Greens.

The Tory-supporting English edition of The Sun is furiously spinning this poll as some kind of breakthrough for Theresa May, but the reality is that it's the joint second-worst poll of the campaign for the Tories (in terms of the size of their lead), and all three of those worst polls have been published either today or yesterday.  It suggests that the Tory lead is a measly 1% higher than David Cameron managed two years ago when he secured a wafer-thin majority of 12.

I somehow don't think poll numbers like these are quite what the Prime Minister envisaged when she called a snap election.  Unwanted, expensive, divisive...and now pointless?


  1. James

    I've run many scenarios through the UKpolling website and the recurring theme seems to be that the Tories win (by which I mean they are the largest party and large enough to block any labour / other coalition) even if they get about 38/39%. Labour need to be hitting 39% or more to pull off a win in some way. At these high levels of voter polarisation, the Lib Dem and UKIP votes are almost meaningless until they hit 15-20% - something I'm not sensing is likely.

    Does that sound right or am I missing something?


    1. That's right, the loss of Scotland for Labour cripples them. The Tories for their majority with only a single Scottish MP they have a huge England advantage over Labour.

    2. And again for the hard of thinking. It doesn't make any difference to the conservative majority if every MP in Scotland is SNP or Labour.
      It makes a difference as to how Scotland is treated. Which is why every labour voter in this election should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. Or shot before they can vote. I'm easy either way.

    3. How the hell do you expect to attract Labour voters if you talk about shooting them? Leave the ramblings about violence to the local troll. You're better than that.

    4. Scottish Labour are running a 'anybody but the SNP' campaign, plus in Westminster they vote down every SNP amendment to the Scottish Bill, which would have improved Scotland's position, plus they put in the absolute minimum of powers for Scotland in the Smith Commission.
      We need our own MPs speaking for Scotland and they can do 'deals' for powers with Lab in Westminster, until we get Independence.
      Neither the Tories nor Labour can be trusted.

    5. Neither can be trusted because they are really the one party the Westminster Establishment Party,plus Limp-Dems of course but just to add a serious thought;Aye this touches on the fear a few of us had,but I think the polls were taken before the Kezia Dugdale spin around and rebel councillors.

  2. For what it's worth, survey monkey had Tories ahead of labor by 6% In 2015 just before vote. They had Tories up 1.5 two weeks out. So pretty accurate. What they do is piggyback these questions onto other surveys. So you may get called and promised $5.00 for answering twenty questions about banking, insurances and whether you find flossing easy. Do you own a car? Take the tram? Oh, by the way, are voting? For who? Run by job Cohen , longtime ABC news/ wash post guy. Do these splits work?

  3. If any of these tight polls are accurate, and the Tories return with a small majority, then it denies May the propaganda victory she thought was there for the taking. I dont think that will change her arrogant attitude to the electorate (especially Scotland), but it takes from her, her claim to speak for all in Brexit negotiations, but a bad deal (which appears certain), will be hers, and her Tory party, alone.
    I have always thought she was out of her depth, but that was OK if she had competent Ministers around her; but the opposite is the case.

  4. "Unwanted, expensive, divisive...and now pointless?"

    Now is not the time surely....?

  5. So, if Mayhem doesn't get the thumping majority she needs - nay, demands - in order to be able to stand strong and stable against the nasty, vile EU, will she have another GE? And then another until she gets the thumping majority she claims is necessary?