Thursday, September 11, 2014

Poll schedule for tonight

The ones we know about so far are...

6pm : ComRes regional telephone poll of the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway.  This is another of those mystifyingly pointless ITV Border polls that will be billed as a "South of Scotland" poll, even though it isn't - well over half the population of the South of Scotland electoral region is excluded.

10pm : YouGov nationwide online poll.  On past form the embargo is likely to be broken by someone well before 10pm, though.

No consensus emerged on how I should use the forthcoming ICM telephone poll in the Poll of Polls, so I'm going to take up the suggestion that I should keep ICM's share of the sample at one-sixth, but use an average of their most recent telephone poll and their most recent online poll.  A bit complicated, but all of the other possibilities seemed even worse to me.

18 comments:

  1. *Please* be clear, the reason that "well over half the population of the South of Scotland electoral region is excluded" is because that they are not in the ITV Border region.

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  2. So what? That may be the reason, but it doesn't change the fact that this sort of poll is monumentally stupid. For exactly the same price they could have done a ComRes nationwide telephone poll, which would have been fascinating - the first non-Ipsos-Mori telephone poll of the entire campaign.

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  3. Any idea what the dates were for the yougov? And does it follow the same methodology as the 51/49 poll? Thanks.

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  4. If you don't like the poll, then ignore it.

    They've commissioned it for their TV programme, for their viewers in the Scottish Borders and Dumfries & Galloway, not for you.

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  5. I'm sure (well, reasonably sure) it'll follow the same methodology, Kellner Correction and all. No idea of the dates yet, but it probably finished yesterday.

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  6. Anon at 5.08pm : If you don't like what's written on this blog, then don't visit, read or leave comments on this blog.

    This blog is for people with a stomach for open debate, not for you.

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  7. Hi James,

    I've read that the YouGov poll will be released at 9 pm GMT, thus at 10 pm London time.

    Still, I'm not sure whether it really makes a difference, because the embargo will probably be broken earlier.

    Xabi

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  8. With Yougov being the new Y friendly kid on the block, could the Kellner correction now actually be boosting the Y vote? If they're upweighting the Lab vote and more Lab are switching to Y?

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  9. Possibly, but the problem is that the "new Yes-friendly kid on the block" part may not survive the evening. We'll see.

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  10. I trust Lord Kellner as much as i do Tory pledges.

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  11. Yeah, point taken. :-/

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  12. Anon at 5.08

    I'm a reader of this blog who lives in Dumfries and Galloway.

    I appreciate James's insights and that includes his analysis of a poll that covers only this region and the borders. I would be disappointed if he were to ignore it.

    For you to suggest that this poll is none of James' business just shows you up as some narrow minded fool.

    Keep up the good work James.

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  13. Just going back out to campaign but this is 100% pure comedy gold.

    (seems to be going viral too)

    https://t.co/4Bo7tSQ5Zw

    ROFL

    Oh and BUPA has come out for No.

    http://www.government-world.com/private-healthcare-firm-backs-no-campaign/

    That's bound to reassure undecided scots over the NHS? Like fuck it will.

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  14. I am from Galloway and whilst there is quite a bit of YES support and active campaigners, the high proportion of the over 65+, and extremely high level of non-Scots in the area, plus its Tory leaning tendencies, mean that where YES to be anywhere near down there it would be nothing short of an absolute sensation. This is as expected, probably better than expected.

    After all at the 1997 referendum D and G was the only area that voted against tax raising powers. Galloway and Upper Nithsdale used to regularly send back SNP MP's (remember Ian lang famously losing his seat in 1997) but since the boundary changes, which takes in key Tory heartlands in the East of the region as well as very Labour supportive wards around Dumfries, this is all to be expected. We can expect this region to vote NO with a massive degree of confidence, but there is not a big population down there.

    It is a shame as the YES groups in the area are working their arses off, and whilst they will win a lot of votes for us, overall victory in this area is the stuff of fantasy.

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  15. 9:50 now.

    Are we getting a poll?

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