Scottish Parliament constituency vote :
SNP 38% (+2)
Labour 29% (-5)
Conservatives 17% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
(Note : Ipsos-Mori don't ask for voting intention on the regional list ballot.)
The only slight fly in the ointment is that Johann Lamont continues to have a modestly better net personal satisfaction rating than Alex Salmond, and it was certainly the case in 2011 that leadership ratings were a better early predictor of the election result than headline voting intention figures. However, Lamont's lead is not all that it appears - in absolute terms more people are satisfied with Salmond, with Lamont benefiting from the fact that fewer people have an opinion about her one way or the other. I know that a number of us have a reasonable amount of confidence about which way things will go once voters become better acquainted with the charms of the Scottish Labour "leader".
At this stage, of course, we're most interested in what the Holyrood figures say about the referendum race. There is more than one possible interpretation - you could argue that if a pollster is showing a good position for the SNP, there's no reason to doubt its No-friendly referendum findings. But the counterargument is that Ipsos-Mori have essentially just corroborated the Holyrood figures produced by Panelbase and Survation, meaning that there is also no longer any particular reason to fear that those pollsters have overstated the strength of Yes due to having a "Nat-heavy" sample. So you pays your money and you takes your choice.
The other intriguing question is this : how can pollsters that show such similar Holyrood figures be coming up with wildly diverging pictures of the state of play in the referendum? It seems to me that the explanation must be one or both of the following -
1) As a telephone pollster, Ipsos-Mori are falling victim to 'shy Yes' syndrome, something which the internet pollsters Panelbase and Survation (and indeed ICM) are immune to.
2) Although Ipsos-Mori are broadly getting the balance between the parties right, there may still be a fundamental difference in the types of SNP and Labour voter that they are interviewing, which would explain why Scottish national identity is suspiciously weak in their figures. In particular, other pollsters may be better at reaching the type of patriotic Labour voter who is moving to Yes.
* * *
I have a confession to make - I actually quite like the UK's Eurovision entry this year. Yes, it's a do-it-by-numbers effort - although it would be unfair to call it derivative of last year's Danish winner, it's not hard to see how someone could use Only Teardrops as a very rough template and end up with Children of the Universe. But it's a strong song all the same, with a good live performer, and if there's any justice it should easily secure the UK's best showing since Jade Ewen finished fifth with a Lloyd-Webber-penned ballad in 2009. It might even have an outside chance of winning if the staging is phenomenally good (on past form I doubt that it will be).
I still don't feel that the song represents me, though. The old public vote system was a kind of ritual that gave us all a stake in the entry, whereas nowadays the whole thing just feels like a private enterprise by the BBC. This year I've voted in the French and Irish national selections, and for a second year in a row I voted for the winner in Ireland (Heartbeat by Can-Linn). I haven't had a chance to vote for or against the UK song, and for obvious reasons I don't particularly identify with the UK as a country anyway, so guess which entry I'll feel that I have a stake in?
Incidentally, as I traditionally point out at this time of year, Molly Smitten-Downes' selection means that there has still been no Scottish involvement in any UK Eurovision entry (either as a performer or as a writer) since Scott Fitzgerald performed in Dublin way back in 1988. Bizarrely, France and Cyprus have both been represented by Scots more recently than the UK have. That's the typically copper-bottomed type of 'union dividend' that is being brought to the table in referendum year.
In case you've forgotten it, here's a clip of Capercaillie's Karen Matheson singing for France (yes, that's France) at Eurovision in 1996 alongside Welsh singer Elaine Morgan, with the Breton language song Diwanit Bugale.