tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6370503657869346310..comments2024-03-29T07:48:22.768+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Ipsos-Mori poll : SNP open up big Scottish Parliament leadJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75816217750350529072014-03-06T14:32:21.856+00:002014-03-06T14:32:21.856+00:00That is indeed interesting Calum.
We need to fac...That is indeed interesting Calum.<br /> <br />We need to factor in the drive to get people who have never voted in the past to sign up, though, because there does seem to be some success with this recruitment drive.<br /><br />I think the Yes voters will get themselves down to that voting booth come what may, however the negative campaign of BT will leave a bitter taste in a lot of peoples mouth and this will almost certainly result in a lot of natural 'No' people, deciding that they don't feel comfortable voting against Scotland.<br /><br />I think it all comes down to the trends at the end of the day, and every one of the polls have shown the trend is for Yes.<br />Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-78724078107709790792014-03-05T19:18:50.617+00:002014-03-05T19:18:50.617+00:00I agree with you partly, but the online companies ...I agree with you partly, but the online companies overestimation of those who voted probably overestimates no support too - both in the full figures and likely voters figures.<br /><br />I believe TNS's method can give a better picture on where things stand because it takes into account C2DE voters who may not have voted in 2011 but may vote yes in the referendum for example. <br /><br />TNS's very likely to vote figures are very interesting. <br /><br />Whole Electorate: <br />Yes: 29% No: 42% DK: 29% -13<br /><br />Certain/Very Likely To Vote only:<br />Yes: 27% No: 35% DK: 18% -8 <br />Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7154805054983812812014-03-05T19:00:01.621+00:002014-03-05T19:00:01.621+00:00The problem with what TNS do is that it waters dow...The problem with what TNS do is that it waters down the benefit of weighting by past vote recall. And they're also giving a lot of weight to people who are never going to vote in a million years.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20013816270075494032014-03-05T18:47:03.738+00:002014-03-05T18:47:03.738+00:00What I've noticed is Yes and No shares among s...What I've noticed is Yes and No shares among supporters of each political party are similar in TNS polls to what the online companies show, suggesting the online polls and offline polls both find representative samples. <br /><br />(Although I personally feel TNS has by far the most representative sample overall because they use methodology that weights by past voting behaviour - 50% of the sample didn't vote in 2011 or can't remember, 23% voted SNP and 16% voted Labour ect. The online posters underestimate people who didn't vote in 2011 very heavily, which may be why TNS shows so many undecided voters.) Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36576048399046143452014-03-05T16:53:10.457+00:002014-03-05T16:53:10.457+00:00Patrick : Actually, it was YouGov's last-but-o...Patrick : Actually, it was YouGov's last-but-one poll that was so suspicious in that respect - when Don't Knows were excluded, the No lead among lower-income people was actually slightly higher than among higher-income people, which was plainly garbage. The Saturday YouGov poll showed that the No lead was seven points lower among lower-income people, which is more realistic (albeit the gap is maybe still a touch on the low side).James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22625574753473244462014-03-05T09:13:10.443+00:002014-03-05T09:13:10.443+00:00I was disappointed too to read that Salmond was no...I was disappointed too to read that Salmond was now in negative figures, and completely amazed at the notion that Lamont was doing better...<br /><br />But I'm comforted that this probably has more to do with the fact that a fair number of the population have no real idea who she is. <br /><br />She appears weekly at FMQ, which is not, I imagine, widely watched. Apart from that she is more a position than a person.<br /><br />I suspect that many people don't even know what she looks like.<br /><br />I've yet to meet anyone who seriously thinks that she does a good job. Even those who agree with her arguments seem to think that she has a communication problem!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-7270668213334021682014-03-05T05:54:10.201+00:002014-03-05T05:54:10.201+00:00James I've heard it mentioned that the stats f...James I've heard it mentioned that the stats for YouGuv, show that the same or similar percentages of people say they will vote Yes, from both the poorest and wealthiest respondents.<br /><br />All other polling statistics show a far higher percentage of the poorer people of Scotland will vote Yes, so there's something wrong with this polling companies results.<br /><br />I think the best way to analyse the referendum polls, is to filter them through 'circumstantial evidence' ie circumstantial evidence suggests that the poorer will vote Yes more than the wealthier. circumstantial evidence suggests canvasing results have a surge in support for Yes throughout Scotland etc etc.<br />The further away from the evidence on the ground that these pollsters are, the less credible they must be. <br /><br />Circumstantial Evidence is excepted in a court of law, so i don't understand why we give credibility to a Tory owned company, who's often tiny samples, contradict the huge canvas returns...especially since we have saw how rotten and dishonest Tory owned companies are recently.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.com